Once considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game, Homer Bailey’s name now solicits more questions then answers. Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America had him ranked as the #5 prospect in baseball, behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young & Phil Hughes. Since then, he’s made 17 major league starts, going 4-8 with a 6.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.  

Those appearances have occurred over two seasons and five separate stints, making it hard to imagine a pitcher of his talent struggling so often. In 2008 he made 8 starts, only three times giving up 3 earned runs or less. He didn’t record more then 4 strikeouts in any start and never lasted more then 6.1 innings. 

As if his struggles in the major leagues weren’t enough, he also could not find his way at Triple -A in 2008 going 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 111.1 innings. To what can we attribute his problems? It isn’t his stuff, as Baseball America had this to say prior to the 2007 season: 

“His fastball sits at 92-96 mph and touches 98. Because of its late life, his heater seems to have an extra gear, exploding on hitters just before it reaches the plate. He has learned to work the bottom of the zone. His curveball is also a plus pitch. He can throw a 12-to-6 hammer or as a slower, loopier version with 11-to-5 break. It's effective both as a knee-buckler for righthanders and as a backdoor pitch that sneaks over against lefties. While it will always be his third best offering, Bailey's changeup has improved and shows some potential. He throws it with good arm speed, generating some deception and a little sink.” 

Equipped with an arsenal that would appear to have him primed for major league success, one has to believe that maybe the Reds simply pushed him a little too hard too soon. Prior to 2007, the year he made his major league debut, Bailey had thrown just 68.0 innings above Single-A.  

Drafted #7 overall in 2004 out of La Grange High School, he has been touted as a can’t miss prospect. As we enter 2009, the 22-year old (he’ll turn 23 on 5/3) instead appears destined to reestablish himself at Triple A, with the Reds already five deep in the rotation: 

• Aaron Harang
• Edinson Volquez
• Bronson Arroyo
• Johnny Cueto
• Micah Owings 

It’s not impossible to see a young pitcher develop after a rocky start to his career. In fact, you do not have to look further then Volquez to see a pitcher who took a similar path. Prior to emerging last season, Volquez had posted an ERA of 7.20 over 80 innings (across 3 seasons) for the Rangers.  

With a minor league K/9 of 9.3, Bailey’s struggle with his command is his most glaring weakness. He’s walked 4.1 batters per 9 innings over 429.0 minor league innings, a number that he cannot succeed with in the majors, especially in the ballpark he calls home. 

There are times when pure stuff can overcome other problems, but Bailey just hasn’t shown that ability. While he is still young and could put things together, like with Nick Adenhart, it’s possible that Bailey is just the next in a long line of high profile busts. Keep an eye on him, but given his struggles and lack of a rotation spot, that’s about all you should do.

Are you ready to give up on Bailey or do you believe 2009 will be his breakout campaign?

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written by TroyPatterson, February 09, 2009

Volquez had more success with strikeouts and walk rates than Bailey in the minors though and has shown the abilty to have more control.

Bailey may have a minor league total K/9 of 9.3, but after 2006 it has been no higher than 7.8.

I can't see him having an success this year and BP weighted means had him equal to Brian Bannister in their projections.

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