I started commenting on Brian's post, but I started getting a little carried away and discovered I had written a whole column. Here's my take on the Mets' closer situation.
K-Rod to the Mets is inevitable. It's as inevitable as Adam Dunn hitting 40 homers, Dusty Baker irresponsibly taxing his pitching staff and Rickey Henderson referring to himself in the third person. It's not just inevitable - it's practically destiny.
The Mets act like they want to be fiscally responsible, but with new stadium revenue and pressure to win in New York, I don't think Omar Minaya will ultimately be responsible. He has way too much invested in this Mets team, built as it is around Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana, to skimp on the 9th inning.
Brian Joura does a great job in breaking down the Mets' closer options here. Joura states the case against K-Rod as follows:
Average fastball velocity dropped from 94.8 mph in 2006 to 91.9 last year. Strikeout rates have declined four consecutive years. Rodriguez averaged 4.48 BB/9 last year. His FIP of 3.22 was nearly a run higher than his ERA of 2.24. A Type A free agent offered arbitration by the Angels, the Mets will lose a first-round pick if they sign him. Originally asked for five-year, $75 million contract but has backed off those demands. He still will cost more money and more years than any other reliever available.
While these are most certainly concerns for any team ponying up that much for a closer, here's why the Mets should sign Francisco Rodriguez:
- New Stadium revenue - Citi Field will provide the already-financially-secure Mets with another stream of revenue. Even if they were still playing in Shea, they could afford to basically sign whoever they want. They will be expected to put a winning team on the field and build a legacy of winning in Citi Field right away.
- The pressure to win in New York - Let's face it, in New York City the Mets will always be second to the Yankees, unless they somehow win 26 straight championships. 1986 was a long time ago, and the Mets will continue to be a punchline unless they win another title soon.
- "Closers of the Future" are not viable- Juan Cruz as your closer is incredibly wishful thinking, as is thinking Huston Street will suddenly regain his form and hold the closer's job injury-free. It's been a long time since Street was a dominant bullpen presence. Just like in fantasy, it's rare that the "closers of the future" work out.
- The Mets want to keep their draft picks - Their farm system even more depleted after the Santana trade, the Mets want and need to rebuild their minor league system. Signing Fuentes or Cruz would cost a first-round pick because their teams offered them arbitration.
- The Looming Ghost of Scott Kazmir - The fear of replicating the Scott Kazmir trade creeps in the moment they think about trading for a gamble like Street. Trading for a relatively "sure thing" like Bobby Jenks or JJ Putz would certainly cost the Mets some of their top prospects. It doesn't make sense for the Mets to mortgage the future on this level, because they simply do not have to. There are other solutions besides a trade.
- The bullpen is the team's biggest problem - The Mets have failed for the last 3 years due to shaky bullpen work, so they need some certainty, especially with Billy Wagner out of commission, Duaner Sanchez losing his velocity and Aaron Heilman looking more and more like a trade chip. The cascade effect that had on their bullpen last year crushed their hopes the way opponents crushed Luis Ayala's fastball. Let's face it - when you're signing Nationals' castoffs, your postseason hopes go down the tubes.
The Mets control the closer market right now, and everyone else is waiting to see what they do. They're about as big-market as it gets in baseball, and they don't necessarily have to sacrifice their minor league talent or take unnecessary risks when it comes to finding a closer. The sooner they sign K-Rod, the sooner they can focus on some middle relief and fortifying the starting rotation, not to mention searching for another outfielder and possibly one of the Rangers' catching prospects.
If the Mets don't sign him, I'd look for K-Rod to return to the Angels, where he was in an ideal situation, with a legitimate chance to win, plenty of bullpen support to pave the way for 3-out saves and one of the best coaching staffs in baseball. He might have to settle for Francisco Cordero money, even after a historic save-gathering season.
Look for K-Rod to be a Met come Spring Training. I can already envision he and Johan comparing notes. After all, it's just money...
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