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11
Jan
2009
Why I'm not drafting Jose Reyes in 2009 PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Baseball Blog
Written by Gabriel Lundeen   
Jose Reyes is a consensus top 5 pick, right? Everyone loves him. Fantasy players stave off heart attacks as they discuss his category-killing contributions and conjure up nightmares of getting stuck with Brendan Harris and Placido Polanco in the middle infield. Me, I don’t get it. Reyes is a nice player, no question, but he is not a top-5 pick in my mind. Here’s why I’m not drafting Jose Reyes in 2009:

Position scarcity isn’t everything – Middle infielders may not be as plentiful as first basemen, but don’t let position scarcity force you to draft Reyes. Position scarcity is very real, as laid out in Mike Podhorzer's article on the Premium Site, but don't let it dictate your decision-making. Guys like Rafael Furcal, Michael Young, JJ Hardy, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Stephen Drew, Miguel Tejada, Jhonny Peralta and Mike Aviles may not match Reyes’ production, but they can capably man the position and be solid contributors to your team. You don’t have to have an elite SS to win a fantasy championship.
The other first rounders – Taking Reyes in the 1st round means missing out on an all-around contributor like David Wright, Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Braun. These guys will chip in 20+ steals and offer you more HR, RBI and a better batting average. Runs were comparable for 2008, as Reyes scored 113, Wright scored 115 and A-Rod scored 104. You’re paying for steals, pure and simple, and the price is too high.
The myth of the “category killer” – Reyes didn’t lead the league in steals last year, Willy Taveras did. No one would debate that Reyes is much, much better than Taveras, but shouldn't a so-called "category killer" be a little more lethal?. Reyes will steal a lot of bases, but he might not exactly “kill” the category. No one player can win a category for you single-handed, even a great base thief like Reyes, even a slugger like Ryan Howard. You're much better off drafting a balanced team rather than relying on Jose Reyes to steal you 75 bases. Speed is back in vogue – In this post-steroid era of more stringent testing, home runs are down and speed is back in vogue and there are a ton of speed sleepers, many of whom will be available late in drafts, exceed expectations and earn you amazing value based on where you picked them. Carlos Gomez, Ryan Theriot and Juan Pierre may not be anyone's ideas of superstars, but they contribute key stats to your fantasy roster. If you build a well-rounded team, specialists like Pierre can be a huge help rather than a handicap.

Steals also come from unlikely places. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday, two guys hardly known for their blinding speed on the basepaths, both stole over 20 bases last year. Look for other power hitters who have a certain degree of mobility to get on the speed bandwagon. If Carlos Lee can do it, anyone can. Don't rely on these guys for your speed, but know that there are more ways to acquire stolen bases than spending a 1st round pick on Jose Reyes.

One injury kills Reyes’ value – One hamstring pull and Reyes’ value is shot. A-Rod, on the other hand, pulls a hammy but still drives in runs a-plenty. All of Reyes’ first-round value is tied up in his stolen bases, and should they vanish he leaves you little else with which to justify the pick. Look at what Carl Crawford owners went through last year when he got injured and stopped stealing bases.

Cheap steals on the waiver wire - If you’re vigilant, stolen bases are one of the easiest stats to make up for on the waiver wire. If you play in a daily or weekly league, strategic pickups throughout the season can add necessary bursts of speed to your roster.

He’s not the only steals guy with a little pop - Power is not Reyes’ game, and he experienced his biggest problems at the plate when he got into the mode of uppercutting the ball and trying to hit more homers. He might more home runs than truly one-dimensional guys like Chone Figgins or Taveras, but it’s not enough to justify a top-5 pick.
Here are 2008 power stats for other prolific base stealers who provide an alternative to Reyes at a lesser cost, and their current Average Draft Position (ADP) according to Mock Draft Central:
Jose Reyes – 16 HR, 56 SB – ADP 4.45 Brian Roberts – 9 HR, 44 SB – ADP 38.67 Matt Kemp - 18 HR, 35 SB –ADP 42.02 Shane Victorino – 8 HR, 36 SB – ADP 51.76 Jacoby Ellsbury – 9 HR, 50 SB – ADP – 70.80
Grabbing one of these guys in the first 5 to 6 rounds and adding him to a speed/power combo 1st rounder like Wright leaves you with roughly equal stolen bases and a lot more power. Players like Johnny Damon (17 HR, 29 SB) and Randy Winn (10 HR, 25 SB), who will go in the late rounds of drafts, will offer very cheap speed/power numbers as well.

You can draft Denard Span 18 rounds later – That’s my plan, anyway. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Jose Reyes may offer a lot of speed in the first round, but he doesn’t have to be your only speed source. Reyes is unquestionably a great player, but not at the cost.
I’d rather get my speed elsewhere. Save your first round pick for truly elite offensive players.
What do you think? Are the extra steals really worth spending your 1st round pick for? Am I underrating Reyes?
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written by RobReed, January 11, 2009
oops - that was prorated - Reyes is #22... #2 SS, behind #9 Hanley with raw stats
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written by RobReed, January 11, 2009
Agree 100%. This is why I said (and was berated for saying) that Carl Crawford was NOT a Top 10 pick two years ago (and, hindsight says I was right).

I rank players against each other, as if they were fantasy teams.

Using raw stats (i.e., no proration), and with a minimum 150 ABs and 20 games played at a position, guess Jose Reyes' rank?

#68.

67 players were better than him, when comparing all offensive players in standard 5x5.
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written by GabrielLundeen, January 11, 2009
I agree, but it's almost a moot point because he's not likely to make it past the first 5 picks in most drafts. If he slips past, say, #7, you'd be insane not to take him on value alone, especially if you play in a league with active trading.
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written by neo, January 11, 2009
The question is where in the first round won't you take Reyes? You said taking him would meaning passing on guys like David Wright, Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Braun. But what if you pick 9 or 10 in the first round? And Reyes is still there? Would you take Mark Teixeira over Reyes? How about Ryan Howard? I understand the issue about not taking Reyes in the first few picks, but at the bottom of the first round I think you would be crazy to pass him up.
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written by GabrielLundeen, January 11, 2009
I would consider it, but I'd worry that Sizemore won't be able to match his 2008 power. I think 25-30 HR is a more responsible projection than 35-40.

Without the 40/40 possibilities, he's not that far off from second-rounders like Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano. Sizemore has a lot more upside than either of those guys at this point in their careers, which is why he's going in the early first round.

It would be really tempting to take Sizemore, but I might actually go for Reyes in this case. I might even prefer taking Braun or Miguel Cabrera to Sizemore
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written by GabrielLundeen, January 11, 2009
Thanks, Brian. I just worry that any reduction in speed for Reyes means less than first-round value.

If you haven't seen it yet, check out Brian's article arguing the opposite point of view:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/consistency-steals-and-jose-reyes
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written by GabrielLundeen, January 11, 2009
Furcal is admittedly a risk, but if he can stay reasonably healthy, he should deliver excellent value and a lot of speed in the Dodgers lineup. Back pain is a tough one, because it so rarely gets magically better even with treatment and time. If healthy, he could offer you 85% of Jose Reyes easily, though, wouldn't you think?
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written by GabrielLundeen, January 11, 2009
A certain show, perhaps?

I'm afraid Denard Span is getting too hyped now...he may be in danger of losing sleeper status if everyone knows about him. Tony was telling me about an NFBC mock where he went in the 10th round! I like him as a player, but not at that price!
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written by Pops, January 11, 2009
Would you consider taking Sizemore over Reyes will a pick in the middle of the first round?
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written by big o, January 11, 2009
gabriel :
the # 1 reason not to draft jose reyes in the 1st round ==> hanley ramirez .
otherwise , it's easy to build a team around the mets ss.
granted, the "what if" injury card has some validity , but , what if wright goes down ? by your own admission , reyes' speed stats are more easily replaced .... however , with reyes as my 1st pick , and complementary power bats subsequently drafted , i think i would be better off than with the corresponding scenerio , where wright goes down and i have later drafted for speed .
also , furcal ?? you think he'll still be playing after the all-star break ?

probably comes as a surpise that i agree with what you've said here.
nice post.
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written by MichaelMuschiano, January 11, 2009
It feels like deja vu all over again. I feel like I've heard this Denard Span spiel somewhere before hehe...
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written by BrianJoura, January 11, 2009
Considering that I disagree with your premise, I thought this was a well-presented argument.

I'll take Reyes over Braun in SB, AVG and Runs, which I feel are harder categories to fill with players who don't kill you in other categories. And A-Rod is a fellow top-5 pick, although Reyes has outscored him in two of the past three seasons.

There's always the worry that Reyes will not remain an elite SB threat (check out Figgins' SB numbers the past couple of years). But I don't expect that to come in 2009.

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