Over the last month, fantasy baseball message boards have been flooded with posts from fantasy owners asking the age-old question, “What is wrong with _____?”  More to the point, how do we determine that it is more than just a slow start and the player in question is actually on his way to a disappointing season?  Fantasy owners love to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates, but there will always be a guy like Carlos Quentin or Paul Konerko who remained hot and cold, respectively, all season last year. Below are some of the offensive metrics I examine when trying to make a decision about a slow starting hitter. Hopefully this primer will give you newfound confidence to figure out on your own “what’s wrong with ____”.

All stats below could be found on FanGraphs.

BB% (Walk Rate)- Is your hitter walking less than usual, signifying a sudden lack of patience that may be causing him to swing at bad pitches he can’t do as much with? Or is his walk rate close to his career average, suggesting no skills decline? What does an increased walk rate mean? This could either be a good or bad sign. Good if the player is young, but potentially bad if he is old. Walk rates tend to increase with age and often a spike in walk rate at an older age might be compensation for decreased bat speed. In this case, the hitter has consciously become more patient and is taking more pitches, because at this point, he can’t hit as many pitches as he used to be able to and walking is his best chance at getting on base. Increased plate patience for a young hitter is an excellent sign as it could signal improved pitch recognition and could increase overall offensive output. Of course, more walks will lead to a higher on base percentage, which should lead to more runs scored, all else equal.

K% (Strikeout Rate)- This one is quite simple and intuitive. An increased strikeout rate could happen to a young hitter who pitchers have “figured out”. In other words, scouting and video have allowed teams to find the hitter's weaknesses of which they could be exploiting. It is now up to the hitter to make adjustments. As a result, it is very important to see this rate close to the player’s career average. An older player whose K rate has increased could be a sign that it’s the beginning of the decline phase of his career and the rebound you are hoping for might never come. 

BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play)- If you notice that an older player has a batting average below your expectations, check out his current season and career BABIP. If his career BABIP is well above the league average .300 rate at something like .350 and in the current season it is down to “only” .320, for example, this might be an instance in which you should not necessarily expect the BABIP to rise to match his career average. Many factors contribute to a hitter’s BABIP range throughout his career, but speed and power are some of the most important. A player in the decline phase of his career has surely lost some speed and probably some power as well and could therefore have a difficult time matching his career BABIP. A younger player, however, has a much better chance of seeing his BABIP rise closer to his career level, assuming we have enough data to give us confidence this is his true talent level, not just a one or two season fluke.

GB%/LD%/FB% (Ground Ball/Line Drive/Fly Ball Rates)- Batted ball data has really gained steam over the last year or so as I am seeing more and more analysis with it by the day, which is a very excellent thing. Like previous metrics, comparing these numbers to career averages is the key. Is the hitter hitting fewer line drives than usual? If so, this is the number most likely to rise back to career averages, as opposed to confirmation of a decrease in skill at hitting line drives. The GB%/FB% is more important as a large shift here might mean a change in approach. For example, Alex Rios’ HR outburst in ‘06 and ‘07 was primarily the result of a huge drop in GB% and corresponding rise in FB%, a clear effort to hit more fly balls and tap into his power. Garrett Atkins is another example of this change in approach from 2005 to 2006. Assuming the hitter in question actually does possess some power (i.e. he isn't Juan Pierre) , then more fly balls is a good thing. On the other hand, if your hitter is suddenly hitting a ton more ground balls than usual, a rebound in home runs (assuming he has been a disappointment in the power department so far) should not be counted on.

HR/FB (Home Runs Per Fly Ball)- Here is yet another metric where age and track record really come into play. Is this a veteran hitter who should still be in his prime, but his HR/FB ratio is much lower than his career average? If so, then we should expect a rebound, assuming we find no other red flags in the rest of our analysis. If we are looking at a 35 year old hitter instead, this might be a sign that the end is near and the power decline has begun. A young hitter with a short track record and a lower HR/FB ratio than the previous year or in his career might just be due to the normal ups and downs of a young player’s career or a sign that his previous year was either over his head or represented his power ceiling. Fantasy owners sometimes forget that young players don’t automatically improve every single year in a straight line until reaching their peak. Players will have peaks and valleys on their way to reaching their ceiling.

Doubles Rate and ISO, in conjunction with HR/FB (ISO = Isolated Slugging = SLG minus AVG)- In addition to looking at how the player’s home run power has changed, his doubles rate could also be an indicator of a change in power skills. I use ISO here because it is a better indicator of power than straight slugging percentage, since that rate includes singles and we are only interested in extra-base hits. However, ISO is not perfect to look at because a fluky low HR/FB ratio could drag it down. So next we need to look at doubles rate and see how that compares to previous seasons. If the doubles rate is down along with the HR/FB, then there is trouble as the hitter seems to be experiencing an obvious loss of power. If the doubles rate is similar or even up from previous seasons, then we could assume the balls will eventually start flying over the fence.

Well that basically wraps up everything I look at when trying to figure out what the heck is up with my slow starting hitters. I tend to be very patient and give my hitters the benefit of the doubt if they have an established track record to keep my confidence. The biggest problem though is that it is very, very difficult to tell whether a slow start is due to a hidden injury (which may or may not heal to allow for a rebound), a true decline in skills, or just an early slump that any hitter could suffer through. Hopefully the above will take some of the guesswork out of it and allow for more informed decisions. It also cannot be said enough how age plays a huge factor in these types of analyses. Many times what will happen is an older player ends up declining earlier than we were expecting and it is imperative to recognize this and tell yourself that a rebound probably is not imminent.

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written by ChuckAnderson, May 13, 2009

Fantasy owners sometimes forget that young players don’t automatically improve every single year in a straight line until reaching their peak. Players will have peaks and valleys on their way to reaching their ceiling.

Love the thought, even more for how concisely and clearly it was expressed

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