Just like last year we are hosting a party at Tonic East in NYC on the eve of Tout Wars. And the first 50 beers are on us (one per person please we don't want too many drunks). We hope you can join us if you are in the NYC area on 3/26 at 6 pm, at 29th street and Third Avenue. Just the ability to meet Lenny Melnick should be enough reason to come i...
It’s hard to find two players who were as similar statistically in 2009 than Jayson Werth and Jason Bay. Below is a chart with both players’ numbers to prove my point and save you some valuable time. AVG HR RBI R SB ...
Baseball Blasts are from Articles I have searched for that can can give you little more insight into Teams, Players, and MLB in general..LBB can be a very useful tool. Allow me to do the digging for you, as I have searched every newspaper housing a ...
Here are some players and whether they are hot or not so far in the Spring.
Most of the rumors of the week swirl around Joe Nathan, some speculation regarding unsigned, veteran slugger-types with no discernable defensive position (Jermaine Dye, we love ya buddy!). So we’ll have an abbreviated rumor section and move on to some spring training players.
Every Friday we will take a look at three players in the AL who are being over-valued in drafts based upon their ADP and three players who can be found much later in the draft that may produce similar numbers for your fantasy team.
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10 Jan 2009 |
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| The Red Sox are certainly playing the low risk/high reward strategy with their damaged right-handed free agent signings. John Smoltz signed with the Red Sox for $5.5 mil and Brad Penny signed for $5 mil. Both contracts contain incentives that, if reached, would total $18 mil for the pair. That is the low risk part.
Of course, the high reward part for the Red Sox is if both pitchers actually do make their incentive quotas which would mean that the Sox got what they wanted from them. If Smoltz and Penny do just that then it would be quite a steal for the Sox. The Red Sox are banking on the hope that the injuries to both pitchers will not linger into 2009 and that they can return somewhere close to their pre-injury forms. There will always be some risk when a team signs an oft-injured pitcher. The risk is maximized when you sign two of them. We all know that there is the potential with both Smoltz and Penny to be ace-like pitchers. But how much damage can their arms take before their magic right arms become a thing of the past? I'd like to share with you my thoughts on both pitchers and what are reasonable expectations for both in 2009.  John SmoltzSmoltz is one of the most remarkable pitchers of all time. He seems to deal with injury and return from them better than any pitcher in the game. Some more positive history that he has going for him is that he hasn't had an ERA of over 3.50 since 1994 and hasn't had a WHIP over 1.20 since 1995. In this day and age, things like that just don't happen. He was off to one of the best starts in his career last year before he could no longer deal with the discomfort in his shoulder. In 5 starts Smoltz had 28 IP, a 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 36 K. There was an attempt to come back as a closer in '08 until he decided it would be better off to just shut it down for the season. From 2005-07 Smoltz went over 200 IP each season while averaging a 7.81 K/9 in that time. All of this coming from a man in his late 30's. In his most recent full season of 2007, Smoltz had a LOB% of 76.2 and a BB/9 of 2.06. His recent history after reclaiming his starter's role is quite encouraging. However there is still some question as to what his role will be in 2009. The hope is that he is ready to go by mid to late May. If everything is going well in the Red Sox rotation then where does Smoltz fit in. One option is that he could take over Tim Wakefield's spot in the rotation. This seems unlikely since experiments with Wakefield in the bullpen have not gone over so well. The other option is that Smoltz becomes the set-up man for Jonathon Papelbon. This seems to be the more likely scenario. I believe that Smoltz himself would feel more comfortable in the bullpen at this point of his career. Brad Penny Penny is quite a different story. While Smoltz has prospered through and in spite of injuries, Penny has had his struggles even when healthy. In 9 seasons in the Majors, Penny has gone over 200 IP only twice. He has had an ERA over 4.00 in 5 of those 9 seasons. When fully healthy, there is no doubt that he has the stuff to be among the top pitchers in the game. Penny didn't pitch well last year even before his injury. He allowed 112 H and 54 BB in 94 IP, good for a 6.31 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. There were times that he showed the stuff that he had in 2007 when he was an All-Star but those occasions were few and far between. It was extremely disappointing to watch him pitch so badly. He was coming off of a career year and just when it seemed like he had finally put it all together he had the worst season of his career.  There is a good deal of optimism that Penny will be ready to go for Spring Training. He said that one of the reasons that he signed with the Red Sox is that their assistant trainer, Mike Reinold, is one of the best shoulder specialists in the game. This is a bit of good news for Penny's '09 prospects but there is still much concern surrounding Penny. It's not just the injury but his game itself that throws up red flags. If Penny is ready to go in Spring Training then he should jump right into the starting rotation. Final Analysis As things stand today there is little reason to use a draft pick on Smoltz in a 23 round draft. The fact that there is no guarantee that he will be a starter gives him little value at this point. If there becomes a possibility where he could join the rotation then I am optimistic that he could provide quality stats. I will never say John Smoltz cannot do something until he proves that he cannot do it. He may be worth a bench spot on your team until things start to take form in Boston. If Penny struggles out of the gate, it may be his spot that Smoltz takes over in the rotation in late May. In that case, I wouldn't be surprised is Smoltz returns to a #2 caliber pitcher. I'm not as optimistic about Penny's contributions in '09. As I said earlier, he did not pitch well before his injury and a move to the AL East certainly can't help. Having said that, there is still some good stuff in that right arm. The big question is if Penny can prove us wrong and harness that nasty stuff once again. I think that he is worth a late round pick as an injury sleeper. The fact that he is basically guaranteed a starting spot immediately gives him value. However, it's hard for me to see him having an ERA under 3.85 after coming off a shoulder injury and a move to the American League. How confident are you that both players can return to full health? If both are healthy, where does the Boston pitching staff rank among the league's best? Do you think either pitcher can regain their status as solid #2 starting pitchers? Trackback(0)
Comments (8)
  written by SeanAgranov, January 16, 2009
interesting though that penny historically is always a great pitcher early (up until the all star break) and smoltz is being projected now to be fully ready by the second half.
written by big o, January 16, 2009
theo impresses me as a pretty capable poker player . presently his hand shows smoltz taking a place in the rotation mid-june/july.
if mike reinhold is to live up to his billing as "one of the bests shoulder specialists in the game" , then look for him to go easy with penny and the damp spring air in new england. this would suggest the showcasing of youngsters early on to inflate their trade value as other teams are scrambling to patch together a rotation.
written by Steve Shane, January 16, 2009
Smoltz' real life value will higher than his fantasy value, but I wouldnt be suprised if he put up numbers similar to Schilling's last season with BOS: 9-8 3.87/1.25 151 IP
written by ChristopherMulligan, January 11, 2009
MadGame,
I agree that there is little downside to the signings. Both players still have the potential to do great things. I think that they are in fact biding time for Masterson and Bucholz to come around. Kevin, I still think that Smoltz has plenty enough in his arm to be more than a quality major league pitcher. Glavine has been done for at least three years. Brian, I know that Smoltz wanted to come back last year and if you remember there was talk of him becoming the closer again if he did come back. That was what Smoltz wanted but the injury would not let him return in '08.
written by BrianJoura, January 10, 2009
I thought Smoltz preferred starting because he thought it was less taxing on him...
written by kevinorris, January 10, 2009
I've seen Smoltz pitch in Atlanta for all of my life (since 1990) and I loved every minute of it. I wish John the best in Boston, but I don't think they will be able to get much work out of him this year. Him and Glavine should have both retired this off season. I think Penny has a better chance of regaining his #2 starter status, but I don't think it will happen.
written by This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , January 10, 2009
...no downside for Boston. If just one of the two pitches to his ability I'm sure the Sox would be thrilled. If they both do there could be another flag hanging in Boston. Worst case scenario would seem to be that even if neither one is effective then they should buy time for their younger pitchers to develop.
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There is a good possibility that his numbers could be just that. It's a long lay-off for Smoltz and it could take him a while to shake the rust.
Big O,
I think that the Sox should deal Bucholz before his value takes any more of a hit. He's still a valuable commodity but they could get burned if they hang onto him too long.
Sean,
I actually think Smoltz will be ready before the second half. He's already started throwing and he says he feels great. Penny has been a quick starter but it's going to be an adjustment for him.