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With the flurry of activity at this year’s trade deadline, it seems like an obvious choice to write a trade article. However, inspired by my article on J.P. Ricciardi, this week we will be looking at the Top Ten Worst Trades. Once again Brian Joura is on hiatus, so the mantle of our famous Top Ten Articles falls in my lap. Without further ado....
10. The Astros trade Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and John Halama to the Mariners for Randy Johnson.
So, on July 31 1998 they traded Guillen et al to the Mariners for Randy Johnson. Johnson lost both games he pitched in the playoffs and then left for Arizona. Johnson pitched very well in the regular season, generating 28 Pitching Runs Above Average (PRAA). To get those 28 PRAA, the Astros gave up 170 Batting Runs Above Average in Guillen, plus Guillen’s 53 Fielding Runs Above Average. He was worth 40 wins above replacement. For his part, Garcia became an integral part of the 116 win Mariners’ club, going 18-6. He has a career record of 118-77, all since that trade. 9. The Mariners send Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians for Ben Broussard. This looks like a nondescript trade, which is why it ranks so low. Choo has been an outstanding player, far better than most expected. Choo is 27, in his prime and has a career OPS of .873 and a career OPS+ of 127, or 27% better than league average. At age 25 in 2008 his OPS was a cool .946. Does that sound interesting? Well, if it does not, consider this: his career OPS+ puts him in the top 25 active players, with room to grow. His 127 is tied with Justin Morneau and just below Jason Bay, two players who are fairly good in their own right. I am putting this trade here on pure speculation so check back in ten years. 8. The Cubs trade Lou Brock, Jack Spring and Paul Toth to the Cardinals for Ernie Broglio, Bobby Shantz and Doug Clemens. Old-timers like to point to this trade as the most lopsided of all time, given Lou Brock’s 3,000 hits. But Brock, in my estimation, is a contender for the Most Overrated Player Of All Time (perhaps that should be the next Top Ten article.) Despite his 3,000 hits, Brock has a career OPS of .753, an OPS+ of only 109 (9% better than league average) and barely eked out a run profit on steals, with 938 steals against 307 times caught stealing. Not to demean Brock, but he is not as good as some of the other players to come. 7. The Red Sox trade Jeff Bagwell to the Astros for Larry Andersen Case in point on Lou Brock. Bagwell, despite a shorter career, was a far better player than Brock. Bagwell has a .948 career OPS, good enough for a 149 OPS+, 34th all time. This is also an example of where people try to rewrite the record books by changing history. Andersen pitched in 15 games for the BoSox, putting up a 1.23 ERA, theoretically driving the Sox to the ALCS where they were massacred by the Bash Brothers, who were, in turn, smacked around by the Reds in the World Series. As good as Andersen was, he generated a cool five PRAA, the Red Sox won the division by two games over the Jays. So, at most, Andersen was worth one quarter of those two wins. 6. The Tigers trade John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. Every baseball fan knows about this trade. But most forget just how good Doyle Alexander was, as he went 9-0 for the rest of the 1990 season and then Smoltz is yet another player that is better than Brock, and he rates an edge over Bagwell as well, so on runs this trade nudges out the number seven trade, despite Alexander’s success. Were it not for a four year stint when he was the best closer in baseball, Smoltz would have been a lock for 250 wins, and measured by ERA+ he has been better in his thirties than in his twenties. If you think he is not a clear cut Hall of Famer, please think again. 5. The Athletics trade Mark McGwire to the Cardinals for T.J. Mathews, Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein. This deal is perhaps a little overrated as serious contender for number one, since the Cardinals only got four years of McGwire. However, no one could have foreseen McGwire’s “improvement.” One must feel bad for the A’s, who lost out on millions of dollars in the next two years as McGwire chased Babe Ruth and Roger Maris. 4. Giants trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to Twins for A.J. Pierzynski. Ugh. This trade absolutely is a contender for the worst trade ever. It is a shame that Bonser was bedeviled by injuries, as he was a very solid prospect who worked very had to develop his command so that he could tame his great stuff and make the majors. Right now Nathan looks like a solid bet for 500 saves, and has been 182 PRAA over his stellar career. That may not seem like a lot, and because of the role in which Nathan pitches it does not accurately measure his impact (sorry, statheads). Liriano is at the outset of what we hope will be a strong career, and has been 13 PRAA so far. Including defense Pierzynski has been about 120 runs above average, so this looks like a reasonable deal. The whole enchilada depends upon how Liriano develops. Reasonable minds may disagree with me, but I still think that Liriano will be worth 100 runs over his career, making this deal a whitewash. But if you are bearish on Liriano then you may not even consider this that bad of a deal and certainly not a Top Ten deal. 3. The Mets trade Tom Seaver to the Reds for Pat Zachry, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman. Seaver is 480 PRAA, and after the trade Seaver generated approximately 150 runs above average, which is a whole career for many pitchers.
Seaver, upset at the Mets for failing to improve the team (and no this headline is not from this week), and blasted then team owner M. Donald Grant. Dick Young, who was a Daily News writer and who could be charitably described as a puppet of MLB ownership, aligned with Grant against the Mets’ franchise player. Young wrote that the Seaver family, using Seaver’s wife’s name, was jealous of Nolan Ryan and the money he made, and that was all she wrote. As the News wrote:
2. Mets trade Nolan Ryan, Frank Estrada, Don Rose and Leroy Stanton to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. Were it not for the context of the Number One trade, this is an easy choice for the worst trade of all time, so it gets the number two spot. The difference between this trade and my number one pick is the fact that this trade did not ruin a franchise. Not for lack of trying though. No trade that I could find in history involved such a great player at such a young age being traded for so little. And that is just in on-field contributions. Ryan has been a tremendous figure in Texas, and not just in his current role with the Rangers. Consider merely the goodwill that the Mets lost by this deal and you get a sense for what may have been possible. On the field this is easily the worst trade involving an individual player. The Mets traded Ryan when he had 29 wins, at the age of 25. He ended with a mere 324. And the Number One Worst Trade: The Expos trade Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. Did I say “take heart Mets’ fans?” Oops. The Mets’ current GM, when he is not taking unwarranted potshots at beat writers, made the worst trade of all time. Naturally this made him the hope of the Mets’ franchise and an easy choice for GM. On June 27, 2002 Omar Minaya put the final nail in the coffin of the once-proud Expos’ team, sandbagged to death by Bud Selig and Jeffrey Loria. One can argue that Minaya had no choice, given that the future of the franchise was in doubt. But since we all know the on-field and off-field results of the trade, let’s take a different tack than the hundreds of others that have written about the trade and look at the ethics from Minaya’s perspective. Let’s assume for argument’s sake that Minaya is not so ignorant that he thought the trade was something close to fair on value, a proposition that we cannot just say is true, as we know full well. What is the profit to the deal? We have the utility to future fans, players etc. if he does not make the trade on one side. That is to say that we need to look at the happiness, money, goodwill and all of the other assets that were wasted, including the possible death of a franchise, if the deal is made. On the other hand we have those same assets but we keep the current players and do not get Colon. Here we are essentially using the philosophical concept of “utility.” On that calculus the deal is easily the worst of all time and one that is tremendously to the negative in terms of utilitarian ethics. Essentially Minaya did what many CEOs did to bankrupt the country; they badly underestimated future loss and greatly overestimated current gain. In the process he ruined an entire franchise, wasted millions of future dollars and deprived Montreal of any chance at keeping a franchise. One might be forgiven in saying that it was a conspiracy between Selig, Minaya and Loria. Anyway there you have it. Many trades that others consider to be among the worst ever are omitted to rail away below. Mets’ fans take heart. Despite having two of the three worst deals of all time, at least I did not include Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Trackback(0)
Comments (7)
  written by Sammmy, February 02, 2010
JBuhner (and others) for KPhelps. Seattle reaped rewards from that trade for years and talk about The Boss fuming over a poor trade...
written by Bob Jack, September 18, 2009
Oh yah, Babe Ruth. that was the worst trade in hisotry. Maybe you can slot him in soewhere around the Choo trade.
written by Bob Jack, September 18, 2009
Yeah, the commenter has a much better list of bad trades because he knows the history and doesn't think -- as the author does obviously -- that MLB baseball started in the 1980s except for what he knows of the Mets. Also, this throwing around vconvulated new wave state categories as somehow justifying anything beyond someone who has too much time on his hands, his comments aboit Brock are ridicuous. Brock's production fell off considerably in the end but what he did for the Cards in every way, shape and form, as well as intaligibles was tremendoius and Broglpi crapped out. The commenter's list should be the basis for such a consideration with trades such as the Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Bagwell, smioktz and the Expos ttade included.
written by Tim Farra, September 08, 2009
I always thought, and have heard "experts" agree, that the Reds trading Frank Robinson to the Orioles was the worst trade ever. I strongly disagree with the author's choices. While there are a few that are justified, he relies too much on recent trades and doesn't look into the past. The Red Sox trading Ruth for cash is the biggest snafu in history, IMO.
written by ichirosan, August 03, 2009
I know Choo might have a great future... but how in the world can you include him above all the other Mariners' blunders?
Either the Heathcliff Slocumb deal or the Erik Bedard trade should be there.
... written by Rhett Oldham, August 02, 2009
You are correct, Brock is totally overrated ?!?!? Second all time in steals, catalyst for the 1964 World Championship, 1967 Championship, and 68 NL pennant. 3000 hits was a fluke. Lou Brock was a game changer and is a Hall of Famer. His biggest sin was never playing on the East Coast. Using Bagwell as an examples is comparing one decade to another and it does not translate. Especially considering that old Busch Stadium was one of the most favorable pitcher's parks in the National League. Not surprising coming from a Yankee fan!
Here are some truly one sided trades 1. Roger Maris from Kansas City with Kent Hadley and Joe DeMaestri for Don Larsen, Hank Bauer, Marv Throneberry, and Norm Siebern. The A's were the Yankees farm team for over a decade. 2. Willie McGee to the Cardinals for Bob Sykes going to the Yankees. Steinbrenner fumed over this trade for years. 3. Cards trade Keith Hernandez to Mets for Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey. Whitey Herzog hinted that Hernandez was a drug head and was part of a libel suit. Of course that Mets clubhouse was full of them. Strawberry and Gooden anyone. 4. Red Sox trade Babe Ruth to the Yanks for cash. Hard to get much worse than that one. 5. Mariners send Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb. Two all-stars for nothing, absolutely nothing. 6. Pirates trade 3B Aramis Ramirez and OF Kenny Lofton to the Cubs for 2B Bobby Hill, 3B Jose Hernandez, and minor leaguer Matt Bruback. The Pirates are a 3rd rate organization and continue to show it. Here is just one example. 7. The Baltimore Orioles trade pitchers Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch and outfielder Steve Finley to the Houston Astros for First Baseman Glenn Davis. Glenn Davis had been a solid power hitting corner man but he broke his jaw in a bar room fight the week after he was traded. All three players ended up having all star seasons at some point. 8. The Chicago White Sox trades outfielder Sammy Sosa and pitcher Ken Patterson to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder George Bell. Sammy became SAMMY and George was fading. 9. The Cincinnati Reds trade infielders Lee May, Tommy Helms, and Jimmy Stewart to the Houston Astros for pitcher Jack Billingham, outfielders Ed Armbrister and Cesar Geronimo, infielder Denis Menke, and second baseman Joe Morgan. The Big Red Machine get a starting pitcher, center fielder and starting pitcher. Lee May was solid but not spectacular. 10. The Chicago Cubs trade Ivan DeJesus to the Philadelphia Phillies for Larry Bowa and second baseman Ryne Sandberg. Hall of Famer for two players, one on the downside of a nice career and one that never got going.
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Tags: trade deadline worst trades omar minaya randy johnson lou brock nolan ryan john smoltz grady sizemore trades mark mcgwire tom seaver joe nathan AJ pierynski francisco liriano
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How can a trade involving perhaps the greatest Left-Handed pitcher be one of the worst trades in history? At the time the Astros were pennant contenders, and thought that Johnson would put them over the top in the playoffs.
followed it up with a 14-11 season in 1988 at the age of 37. 
Contextually this trade is a great example of poor thinking by management. The NY Daily News has 
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