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Top Phive Stories Phor 2009--Philadelphia Phillies PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Thursday, 08 January 2009 11:32
The top five stories for your defending World Series Champs. Drumroll please...

1. When will Chase Utley return and will he mantain his typical level of production? We all know that Utley had hip surgery in late November with doctors estimating a 4-6 month recovery time, bringing his return to between late March and late May. Late March obviously means he'll barely miss any time, whereas late May is basically 2 months of the season. Is it really worth risking your 2nd/3rd round pick (MDC's ADP has him 26th overall at the moment) when there's a chance that he not only misses 2 months, but his production could be affected by the injury? It seems reasonable to think he could attempt fewer steals and given that swinging the bat causes torque on your hips, it also is logical to think it could affect his actual hitting. But this is of course just speculation since I'm no injury expert. He does have some batting average upside though since his BABIP of .306 in 2008 was below his career mark of .325.

2. Is Ryan Howard a 1st rounder? It was debated on the old Generals site, as well as mentioned here, as to whether or not Ryan Howard should be drafted in the 1st round. His detractors obviously point to his weak batting average of just .251 in 2008 and .268 in 2007. That's a perfectly reasonable argument, and one I'd agree with, if you believe Howard is truly a .250-.260 hitter. I don't think he is. In '08, his BABIP was just .289, yet his career BABIP is .334. If we adjust his 2008 batting average to reflect a .334 BABIP, it would have been .281, which is nearly identical to his career average. I would think that is an acceptable enough average to keep him at the back end of the first round.

3. Are there red flags for Cole Hamels being virtually unmentioned? Yes, yes there are. Let's start off with the most obvious one, his K/9 trend beginning with 2006: 9.9, 8.7, 7.8. That's pretty scary. So how has he been able to improve his ERA each year? Check out his BABIP trend: .300, .289, .270. That certainly explains things. Cole obviously has an injury history and including the postseason, his innings pitched jumped 51 in 2007 and another 73 (!!) this year. He has outperformed his FIP the last 2 years, and unless he could reverse his K/9 trend, Hamels could turn into a surprising disappointment this year or on the DL.

4. Raul Ibanez: Does the ballpark change offset a possible age-related decline? Over the last 3 years, SAFECO Field has deflated left handed home runs by 6% and total runs by 8%. Citizens Bank Park, on the other hand, has inflated lefty homers by 22% and has been neutral for runs. The ballpark switch should obviously have a very positive effect on Ibanez' production, not to mention the move to a better lineup. However, Ibanez will be 37 this summer and although he's been as consistent as they come, you have to wonder when a real decline starts. Amazingly, I can't find anything whatsoever in his skillset that would suggest the decline starts in 2009. But of course sometimes these things just happen without warning and at 37, you still should be cautious and not automatically assume that Ibanez will enjoy a nice bump in his stats because of the park.

5. Which Brett Myers shows up in 2009? Is it the one that posted a 5.84 ERA in the 1st half and struggled to reach 90 MPH on his fastball? Or will it be closer to the version that put up a 3.06 ERA in the 2nd half after a demotion to the minors and was consistently throwing in the low 90's? Though I'm certainly not expecting an ERA near 3.00, I'm confident the 2nd half Myers will be closer to the one that shows up all year in 2009. He continues to show excellent skills, and if his HR/F ever fell (his career rate is a robust 15%), a mid-3.00 ERA is his for the taking. Ignore those that simply call him a "hothead" or use my favorite phrase "he has a million dollar arm, but a 10 cent head", and focus on the skills, which are quite good.
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 09, 2009
Troy is correct, if anything, I would think pitching to contact would increase a pitcher's BABIP. However, I haven't read anything that makes any sort of correlation between strikeout rate and BABIP, especially one concluding that the lower the K/9, the lower BABIP.
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written by TroyPatterson, January 09, 2009
Pitching to contact wouldn't lower his BABIP, but just his BB/9 and K/9.

The one thing I noted about his ERA beating his FIP was his high LOB% the past two years. This is a repeatable skill and could help him, but he must improve his K/9 to remain dominant.
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Cole Hamels
written by Teddy, January 09, 2009
Mike,

I think those numbers you provide on Hamels make perfect sense, but don't necessarily think it should raise a red flag. Isn't it possible (and probable) that over the last 3 years, he has learned to pitch to contact better? This would of course drive down his K/9 ratio, but by the same measure should drive down his BABIP. This may not be ideal from a fantasy perspective because of the K decline, but I don't think it indicates an increase of luck/decrease of skill. Pitching coaches often encourage young pitchers to develop their ability to pitch to contact to extend careers and cut down on pitch count.

The increase of IP certainly scares me, but I don't think that his decline in K/9 and BABIP are necessarily indicators of a decline in skill and/or ability.

Teddy

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