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Top Five Stories For 2009--New York Mets PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Tuesday, 13 January 2009 00:00
We continue our series in the NL moving down the 2008 standings in the East.

1. Will the offseason moves prevent another Mets collapse? On the offensive side, the Mets "lost" Moises Alou, but he only gave them 49 at-bats last year, so this won't matter much. His replacement will likely be some sort of platoon of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis. The big moves obviously came in the bullpen as the team signed K-Rod and traded for J.J Putz after losing Billy Wagner for the 2009 season.  This will certainly upgrade the 'pen, but remember that Wagner still gave them 47 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. I don't see either K-Rod or Putz contributing as much value over the season that Wagner provided, but with the additions of both, the bullpen on the whole will be better. The only real notable move the Phillies made was to let Pat Burrell walk so it could sign a worse hitting, just as bad fielding and older player in Raul Ibanez. Way to defend your World Series ring boys! The teams' pythagorean records were similar to their actual records, so we can't assume either team will improve or regress based on this. It does appear that the Mets have gotten a little better, while the Phillies got a little worse, which unfortunately for Mets fans means it will be down to the wire once again.

2. Was Mike Pelfrey's "breakout" for real? No, it wasn't. I put breakout in quotes because it was really just good luck, rather than anything skills-based that led to a 3.72 ERA. Pelfrey could mainly thank his 6.3% HR/F for that. His 4.9 K/9 was just awful and his BB/9 (2.9) and GB% (49.6%) weren't nearly good enough to offset the putrid strikeout rate. His expected ERA for the season was an awful 4.72, exactly 1 full run higher than his actual. What about his 3.16 2nd half ERA you ask? His control took a giant leap forward; however his K/9 remained the same lowly 4.9. If he was inducing grounders at a 60%+ rate, then this might be okay, as Chien-Ming Wang has shown us. However, he isn't. I don't expect him to earn any more than $1 or $2 in 12-team mixed leagues.

3. What can we expect from Daniel Murphy? As a lefty, he will be on the good side of the platoon and should get the majority of the at-bats, as long as he doesn't get off to a slow start. He has a little bit of power, a little speed, knows how to take a walk, and made solid contact in the minors. He's not a .313 hitter though like he hit in his brief stint with the Mets, as that was inflated by a .386 BABIP. A full season in a platoon role will probably yield low double digit totals in both home runs and steals, something like 10/10, while posting a batting average that won't help or hurt you (think .280 range). He appears to be a good end-game buy in NL-Only leagues, but mixed leaguers could most likely ignore him or just consider him as a reserve round selection.

4. Which Carlos Delgado shows up in 2009- the 2007 version or 2008 version? Actually, I could have even worded this question as the 2007 and 1st half of 2008 version or the 2nd half of 2008 version. Delgado's shocking transformation during 2008 saw him post a pathetic (for a 1st baseman) .720 OPS in the 1st half, and then explode for a 1.013 OPS in the 2nd half and garner some very undeserved MVP hype. In 2007, he posted a .781 OPS, leading us to believe his decline has begun. In looking at his career, it seems obvious now that 2007 was the outlier. Whatever happened to him that year, it was clearly more flukey than an indication that he was done as a productive 1st baseman. All his skills were pretty much the same, with the only difference coming from a huge drop in his HR/F to 13.0%, after it had been 22.9% the previous year. In 2008, that metric rebounded back to 23.3%. Interestingly, Delgado's 38 home runs in 2008 came despite a large dropoff in his FB%. He may have hit 45 homers if his FB% was closer to career norms! The bottom line here is that 2008 was fully supported by his skills, but he'll be 37 this year, so we must be cognizant that a decline could come at any point and caution is warranted.

5. The red flags are flying around Johan Santana. Sure, every so often I'll read about the warning signs surrounding Johan, mostly by the top experts and fantasy analysts, but I still don't think they are getting enough play. This is a pitcher who after coming over to the NL actually saw his K/9 drop 1.8 to just 7.9. Our friend Derek Carty found that a pitcher will typically see a boost in his strikeout rate of .57 upon a move from the AL to the NL. For a pitcher of Johan's ability, the strikeout rate falloff is a major concern. When you couple that with his worst BB/9 since 2003, of which is actually on a 3 year uptrend, and a 2 year decline in average fastball velocity, you understand why this is not something to just brush off. Though Johan has consistently beaten his expected ERA metrics, this year his expected ERA was nearly 4.00, despite posting the lowest actual ERA of his career. Did his knee injury impact his performance? Probably, but I'm not sure it could completely explain his skill decline. I would not be willing to risk a 2nd round pick on Santana or pay the going rate in an auction. There appears to be more risk than ever with him and yet few are actually acknowledging it.
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 14, 2009
Haha, I will absolutely admit it if I'm wrong!
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written by BrianJoura, January 14, 2009
I will wager anything you want about Mike Pelfrey providing more than $2 of fantasy value in a full year (28 or more starts) in 2009.

My suggestion: The loser has to write an article for the site with the headline - I Was Completely Wrong About Mike Pelfrey and I Had No Idea What I Was Talking About
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 13, 2009
The only question still up in the air, which will have a big effect on Johan, is how Citi Field will play. Early reports speculate a major pitcher's park that deflates homers. If so, Johan will be a big beneficiary as a fly ball pitcher. And Delgado, Wright and Beltran could end up being power busts.
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written by big o, January 13, 2009
i really enjoy these team synopsis reports.
johan ? ... amen to that ... the term 10 foot pole comes to mind , when talking about my 1st 2 picks.
delgado ? .... decline coming in spurts . consistency will soon be attained . shed no tear for the man who wouldn't stand for the national anthem.

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