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Top Five Stories For 2009--Milwaukee Brewers PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Friday, 23 January 2009 11:11
We move down the NL Central with a look at the top five stories for the now Sabathia-less Milwaukee Brewers.

1. Rickie Weeks....WHEN?!?!?!?! Of course I'm referring to the breakout season we've been expecting for what seems to be years now. Judging by the number of times I've talked about him and the opinions of many others, it's possible I'm one of the few left who remains a fan. While most see a low batting average and an inability to stay healthy and play a full season, I see a good walk rate, the best contact rate of Weeks' career in 2008, solid power and good speed. It is true that Weeks may never actually help you in the batting average department; however his new xBABIP was .321 in 2007, versus actual BABIP of .289 when he hit just .235, and .294 in 2008, versus .280 actual BABIP and .234 batting average. That suggests some batting average upside, possibly to around .260. What to make of the injury history? All his maladies seem to have been more of the fluke variety. Let's try to ignore his "low" raw statistical totals and see what his 2008 stat line would pro-rate to over a typical, healthy 600 at-bat season that a lead off hitter would normally have: 18 HRs, 58 RBI, 112 R, 24 SB. Those stats are very similar to something like what Brandon Phillips and Corey Hart did last year (assuming you look at RBI+R), minus the batting average. But as I just mentioned, I think he has batting average upside close to what Phillips and Hart posted in 2008. So go ahead and give up on him if you want, but I'll be doing the opposite and scooping him up cheaply.

2. Finally, a full season from Yovani Gallardo, we hope. I remember in 2007 when fantasy owners were wondering who would be the better pitcher, Gallardo or Tim Lincecum. Timmy answered that question rather quickly. Gallardo came back from his knee injury to throw a small-sample size of 24 innings, but he did excite fantasy owners with a 1.88 ERA. However, under the surface it really wasn't all smiles and rainbows. His K/9 was down from 8.2 in 2007 to 7.5, while his BB/9 was the same 3.0, but his FB% ballooned to a scary 48%. Besides the slightly low .285 BABIP, what really fueled Gallardo's sub-2.00 ERA was the has-to-be-a-typo 97% strand rate! His FIP was actually 4.09 and expected ERA 4.49. I like Gallardo, as he has solid skills and dominated the minors, but he's a fly ball pitcher with only average control at this point and still hasn't thrown more than 110 innings at the major league level. He's been getting a lot of hype and typically getting drafted around the 10th round. You must temper your expectations as there are likely a lot of safer options available who could perform just as well or better at that price.

3. Corey Hart, 30/30 or 25/25 ceiling? A lot of fantasy owners thought Hart would go .300-30-30 in 2008, but we all know that he ended up as somewhat of a disappointment, even with 100 more at-bats than in 2007. Never a big walker, his BB% dropped to an unacceptable level of just 4.2%, though his contact rate did improve for the 2nd year in a row. His isolated slugging percentage, FB%, BABIP and HR/FB all fell as well. It really was an all around down year for Corey. I do expect him to rebound though, but the question is how high of a bounce? He'll be 27 in 2009, so there's always the chance of a large power spike, but even if you assume he rebounds to the same 13% HR/FB ratio from 2007, that brings him to just 26 homers. That obviously isn't too far from 30, but to reach that plateau, you'd have to think Hart is going to perform at a skill level he's never shown before. It's certainly in the realm of possibility, but the percentage play says to expect 25 HRs to be closer to his ceiling. In terms of the steals, he has gone 23 for 30 his last two years, which is right near the acceptable 75% success rate. At 6'6, 218 lbs (according to FanGraphs), Hart is a big dude, and not your typical smallish, speedy outfielder who you would expect to boost your stolen base totals. Again, it's real tough to project anything more in the steals column given his size, so 25 looks to be the ceiling here as well. All in all, if any category hit the 30 level, I'd expect it to be the homers first, but based on his current skill set, he seems to have a 25/25 ceiling rather than the 30/30 it appeared was possible after 2007.

4. Manny Parra, sleeper of the year. At the risk of completely screwing up my chances of landing Parra in all of my leagues this season, I guess I'll let the cat out of the bag. It would have looked suspicious if I didn't include him here, right? I'll be as brief as I could so my interest level is as masked as possible (though it's probably too late )! Good strikeout rates, ground balls galore and a huge spike in skills in the 2nd half, despite an ERA that disagreed. The only problem now is the walks, but his BB/9 was below 3.0 at three different levels in the minors between 2006 and 2007, so control improvement is likely, even in addition to typical age-related progression.

5. The countdown for the arrival of Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel has begun. From a real baseball perspective, I'm not sure what the fuss is all about with Alcides Escobar. He has little power, rarely walks and his 2008 batting average and OPS were inflated by a .375 BABIP. His MLE? A weak .282/.318/.361 line for an ugly .679 OPS. Sure, he makes solid contact, which he better given his lack of power, and I get that fantasy owners see the 34 steals and get excited, but he's not going to get on base enough to make a big contribution in that category. If you're a keeper league owner, I'd see if you could sell high on him. For further Escobar reading, Eric Stashin profiled him here. Turning to Gamel, my first question is what do you have against the letter "t"? The name is spelled Matt or Matthew, not Mat or Mathew! Luckily for Gamel, the lack of a second "t" didn't hurt his production at Double-A in 2008, as he posted a .933 OPS with good power, a solid walk rate, and a reasonable contact rate. Unfortunately, he was also the beneficiary of a ridiculous .392 BABIP. His MLE? .275/.345/.424 for a .769 OPS. Not terrible, but when you combine that mediocre line with awful defense at 3rd, it doesn't appear that he's ready just yet.
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written by kevinorris, March 11, 2009
It's nothing against Mike, but I'm dying to know what makes him so desirable to spend an hour finding his articles!
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AckShawn
written by Paul Greco, March 11, 2009
Wow Mike, you're first stalker and it’s none other than the rookie from the GREAT FANTASY DEBATE AckShawn. :evil:

Hey Ack, there are a few different ways you could have found Mike.
1)The Search on the top of the page
2)http://www.fantasypros911.com/Authors-Archive/ - which is the third selection down from the top of the MLB

As far as your great comment on "I just really enjoy them and wish I could link to them all more easily." Here ya go pal : http://www.fantasypros911.com/The-Top-Five/

If there is anything else I can break down for ya, let me know.

--PAUL
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written by Ackshawn, March 11, 2009
Great article, but so is this whole series. (There's that Parra sleeper you were chatting about at the roundtable, Mike.)

My question is: why are these cool "Top 5" team profiles virtually buried at the bottom of the drop-down on MLB? I just really enjoy them and wish I could link to them all more easily.

I'd actually been trying to find an article by Podhorzer and it took me near an hour!
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written by shoeless, January 27, 2009
Yes - Escobar is a defensive magician. That is the real hype.

Hart's plate discipline is aweful, hindering his ability. Unless changes are made this off season expect similiar numbers. If this is what Hart is, you might as well drop down 4 rounds and take Chris B. Young.
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Gallardo\'s FB Rate
written by Derek Carty, January 23, 2009
Be careful talking about Gallardo's "ballooning" FB rate, Mike. His GB/FB actually went down, his GB% went up, and his FB% ballooned for two reasons:

1) His IF FB% nearly tripled. Infield flies are actually better than GBs as they turn into outs 98% of the time. They're essentially as good as Ks and shouldn't be treated the same as OF FB.
2) His LD% was a ridiculously low, unsustainable 12%.

Normalizing the LD%, Gallardo's xOF FB% for the past two years:
2007 - 36.91
2008 - 36.92

One-hundreth of a percent difference [removed]JOSC_emoticon(":whistle:")

You are correct that Gallardo is more of a fly ball pitcher, although he's closer to neutral than his 2008 FB% would lead you to believe. His xGB% was 41% in 2007, and league average is 42%

Oh, and as to Escobar, apparently he's a defensive whiz, which is where a lot of the hype comes from.

Keep up the great work, Mike!
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Butch Hobson
written by tonycincotta, January 23, 2009
Leave Butch Hobson alone !

I went to a baseball camp and Butch Hobson and Jim Rice were the instructors. The Hall of Famer said to me,"Way to hit slugger."
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written by pat dicaprio, January 23, 2009
they better move him. he might be the worst fielding 3B since butch hobson
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written by lennymelnick, January 23, 2009
Talk is, Gamel may be moved to OF
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Tony Cincotta
written by tonycincotta, January 23, 2009
I would say keep them both and let it sort out. So many times these minor leaguers have there postion swithced in the big leagues. It could be trade of the big league club or player.These guys are valued for there bats.

Ex: Ryan Braun, Jeff Bagwell,Albert Pujlos, Carlos Delgado.
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written by Bret, January 23, 2009
Great info on my fav sports team. I just wanted to comment on a couple things.

1. I have seen every game Gallardo has pitched in the majors and the guy just never gets rattled. Does not amtter if guys are on base or not he's just a pitcher.
2. I hope we don't see Escobar or Gamel untill September.

3. Did Gamel's mom not make it to the hospital? Opened up the front door and had him right there on the door mat?

4. I am new to this BABIP and all. Where can I go to read and get the best info about it?
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written by ichirosan, January 23, 2009
So... if I have Gamel in a keeper league, and already have Longoria blocking him... should I sell him now or wait?
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written by patrickdicaprio, January 23, 2009
That is really some awesome info on Gallardo, Mike. Nice job.

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