Next up in our series is the team that has deluded themselves into thinking they could compete for the division (you suck at your job Ed Wade), the Houston Astros.

1. What is the next step for Hunter Pence? Even with nearly 150 more at-bats over 2007, Pence likely disappointed his fantasy owners in 2008. This wasn't too surprising as most ignored his unsustainable .378 BABIP and his curious ground ball tendencies (49% ground ball rate) despite being a power hitter, which would limit his home run ceiling. Amazingly, his GB% actually increased in 2008, but since his LD% dropped like a rock, his FB% also increased, ensuring he matched his pre-season home run projections. So where does Hunter go from here? Well, his xBABIP in 2007 was .336 and in 2008 just .290. Unfortunately, barely two years in the majors isn't nearly enough time to get a true sense of his BABIP skill level. So at .303 in 2008, let's just assume he has some slight upside there, maybe to the .310-.320 range as he combines grounders, power and speed. That brings him into the .280 batting average range. He might be able to improve his contact rate slightly, as he's been at 78.2% for two straight years, and amazingly at that exact same rate in 2006 at Double-A. However, in a small sample 95 at-bats in Triple-A in 2007, he boosted his contact rate to 84.2%. I can't see too much room for improvement on his 15% HR/FB ratio, so I think 30 home runs will be a real reach in 2009. Pence has not been a good basestealer in the majors, having gone a pathetic 11 for 21 in 2008, which followed a better, but still poor 11 for 16 in 2007. So don't expect much improvement in that department. The bottom line with Pence is that he could easily be a 30 home run hitter if he changed his approach at the plate and hit more fly balls. As he is right now though, he hits way too many grounders, which will limit his power ceiling, and I only see some slight upside in his batting average. I'd expect his 2009 to be pretty close to his 2008, with potentially more RBI+R, especially if he improves his BB% closer to his minor league days.

2. From crap to good, an Astro called Wandy. Seriously, what happened to Wandy Rodriguez? In 2005 and 2006, he was a slight ground ball pitcher, had mediocre strikeout rates and poor control and his stuff wasn't supposed to be anything special. Then suddenly in 2007, his K/9 jumped for the second year in a row, and his walk rate dropped by more than a batter per nine. The amazing skill set improvement continued again in 2008, as his strikeout rate spiked for the third straight year, this time to over 8.0, and his walk rate dipped below 3.0 for the first time. The only negative has been a GB% that has been in a three year decline. Looking at his velocity (which has remained stable) and pitch type selection, he has completely ditched his slider and his change up has declined in usage, both in favor of his curve ball, which I believe is supposed to be his best pitch. Maybe his rapid ascent could be attributed to this. Though his peripherals point to legit progression, his xERA is still just above 4.00, and I just have a difficult time believing in such rapid improvement. I think he has been going pretty late in drafts, so it's not like he'll cost you much to own, but I just wouldn't bet on another sub-4.00 ERA and would still be a little afraid to own him.

3. "Yeah, and you're a Towles!"..."You're a Towles!" A little South Park quoting might bring a smile to the faces of those J.R. Towles owners who took the plunge in 2008. I remember last year debating who the better pick was between Towles and Geovany Soto. I advised to avoid both, but figured Towles would be the better choice since the steals he'd chip in would ensure a value floor. Oops. A .137 average in 146 at-bats and ZERO steals wasn't what anyone expected. His BABIP was a hilariously low .157, but his line drive rate was a lowly 11.4%. So...maybe he just can't hit? Your BABIP will center around .300, but only if you're a major league caliber hitter! I certainly couldn't be expected to be in that range if I was asked to step into the batter's box. However, Towles' BABIP marks were always well above .300 in the minors, so this looks likely to be just a small sample size fluke. He has some power, made decent contact in the minors, could take a walk, and could steal a couple of bases. He's going to be completely ignored in 2009 drafts. Sounds like another sleeper of the year candidate in two catcher mixed and NL-Only leagues.

4. The sad state of the farm system. An awful GM and a weak farm system do not go well together. Too bad for Astros fans. 2008 draftee, catcher Jason Castro (wasn't he on American Idol?), tops John Sickels' top 20 Astros prospects list, and only gets a B grade. He has only received 138 at-bats in Low Single-A so far, but Sickels questions whether he'll hit enough to become a star or just a solid player. Gee, sounds exciting for your top prospect, doesn't it? Moving down the list is outfielder Brian Bogusevic, whose name alone does not sound like a future star. It's really great to read that his lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. And this is your second best prospect! Awesome. How about our number three guy, pitcher Bud Norris? Good strikeout rates so far in the minors, mediocre control, above average ground ball rates. Appears more exciting than the top two guys, but Sickels think he's better suited for the bullpen than the rotation since he doesn't change speeds well. So we have a catcher who might just be a solid player, a potential fourth outfielder, and a likely bullpenner as our top three prospects. Astros fans, I truly feel for you.

5. Miguel Tejada's rapid descent. Well that was quick. In 2008, Tejada's walk rate was cut in half, isolated slugging percentage dropped for the fourth straight year and HR/FB dipped below 10%. Everyone loves to point to the correlation between the performance decline and Steroids-gate, which certainly may have contributed. But also remember that he suddenly aged by two years since he had lied about his age when he signed, making him 34 in 2008. There's also always the possibility that he's still older than he says. Being that he'll turn at least 35 in 2009, may not be taking any substances that he may have been taking in the past that may have helped his production, and is in a serious decline with no indication of reversing, I can't see much of a rebound this year.

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Houston Astros
written by Louise, June 19, 2009

Houston Astros should be always competitive enough to keep pace with the others. I really like them; they’ve always been my favourite teams in MLB. Just read about them here:

http://www.astrosportal.com

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written by Boris From Downunder, January 28, 2009

Mike, love these columns, great stuff!

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