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17 Jan 2009 |
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| We continue our look at the NL with the Florida Marlins. 1. Can Jorge Cantu repeat his unexpected rebound year of 2008? Jorge Cantu broke out with the Rays all the way back in 2005, posting an .808 OPS with 28 home runs in 598 at-bats. He then curiously went M.I.A. for the next 2 seasons and he failed to even post a .700 OPS. Though he obviously showed the skills before in 2005, it was still a surprise to see Cantu rebound to post a 2008 OPS that was identical to 2005. Cantu never walks, but he improved his contact rate this year and hit more fly balls than ever, as his fly ball percentage reached nearly 45%, after never having been above 39% previously. His HR/F is in line with past years, so that looks sustainable. However, that FB% will probably drop back down to his career average below 40%, and his home run total will drop along with that. A low-20's home run expectation looks like the best bet here, which would push him down into the bottom tier of 1st/3rd basemen.  2. Will Jeremy Hermida eeeeeeeever break out? It seems like many, many years ago that Hermida was considered a top prospect. After posting a .975 OPS, including a ridiculous .457 OBP, 18 home runs and 23 steals in just 386 at-bats at Double-A in 2005, fantasy owners were drooling. Hermida's scintillating 2nd half of 2007 got fantasy players even more excited that 2008 would finally be the year. Alas, that did not happen as Hermida posted a disappointing .729 OPS and hit only .249. Looking at his skill set, his once great minor league walk rate has disappeared and now he's actually below average in that department, and his strikeout rate has increased every single year in the majors. He never made very good contact in the minors (his contact rate was just 77% during his big Double-A season in 2005), so we really shouldn't be all that surprised. He just doesn't have the power you'd expect for such weak contact rates and there's really nothing that would indicate he will dramatically improve anytime soon. Until he makes better contact, his batting average and power production will suffer and he'll continue to be a bust. 3. Will Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson hold up for a whole season and if so, how good are they? Nolasco came back from injuries and missing most of 2007 to have a dominating, breakout year, fully supported by his skills. He upped his K/9 to 7.9 and improved his BB/9 to a fantastic 1.8. He remains a fly ball pitcher, which limits his upside, but when you don't walk anyone you can continue to succeed. Josh Johnson amazingly returned from TJ Surgery just about 11 months later, and even more impressively, improved his skills and saw his average fastball velocity jump. Though his control is worse than Nolasco's, he's been a groundball pitcher. In terms of performance, both these pitchers are no fluke. However, the health concerns and questions about what kind of workload each pitcher can handle in 2009 are very real. Johnson only pitched 116.2 innings in 2008 and 37.2 innings in 2007, following 157.1 innings in 2006. Nolasco's innings skyrocketed to 212.1 in 2008, after just 55 innings in 2007, and followed 140 innings in 2006. I might be more concerned about Nolasco given the huge innings increase and the fact that he did not have surgery for his elbow issues in 2006. I wouldn't be surprised to see him miss some time this year. 4. The young trio of Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad. Sanchez returned from TJ surgery and although his ERA was 5.57, his K/9 jumped to 8.7, which is an excellent sign. A top prospect with the Red Sox, he's a nice sleeper in NL-Only leagues assuming his control rebounds. Knee issues ended Andrew Miller's season early, which must have caused celebration for those of his owners with no bench, after Miller gave them a 5.87 ERA. Though he clearly has work to do on his control, my biggest concern is the disappearance of all his ground balls. What made him such a great prospect was his strikeout and ground ball ability, but his GB% was just 46% this year after it was consistently over 60% in the minors. He's going to need to figure out how to get back into his ground ball inducing ways if he's going to break out, especially if he doesn't improve his control. Chris Volstad had a great debut on the surface, posting a 2.88 ERA, but that was mainly due to a 3.9% HR/F that won't be sustained. Never a strikeout pitcher in the minors, he relies on ground balls and slightly above average control. His ERA is headed over 4.00 in 2009. 5. Is Cameron Maybin ready to hit at the MLB level? Apparently penciled into the leadoff hole already, Maybin possesses tantalizing speed potential with some power. He also has good plate patience, having walked in over 10% of his plate appearances each season in the minors. The problem here is his contact ability. His contact rate was a putrid 68.2% in Double-A in 2008 and was barely any better in previous seasons. For a guy that has posted isolated slugging rates of only around .180, that contact rate is simply inexcusable. Oh, and he has yet to receive even one at-bat in Triple-A. His 2008 MLE shows him as a .232/.331/.362 hitter for a pathetic .693 OPS. He also has hit over 50% of his balls in play on the ground, which will certainly limit his home run potential. Given his MLE, terrible contact ability and lack of any Triple-A experience, there is no way Maybin is ready to hit in the majors. He'll give you steals while he still has the job, but he is going to kill your average and there is a good chance he eventualy gets demoted for some Triple-A seasoning.
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Comments (3)
  written by ducat2, January 18, 2009
Thanks Mike. I enjoy your articles. The problem with the Marlins, as you know, is they will trade all of the aforementioned players before they reach arbitration and/or their full potential.
written by MikePodhorzer, January 18, 2009
When I write these articles, they are primarily focused solely on 2009. For this year only, I don't expect much from Maybin or breakouts from Sanchez/Miller/Volstad. However, long-term Maybin remains an excellent prospect and all the young pitching is very exciting.
The Marlins are definitely a fun team to watch and if I were a Marlins fan, I'd be excited. I just think Maybin in particular isn't quite ready yet to contribute to the major league club.
written by ducat2, January 18, 2009
Mike,
Being somewhat of a Marlins fan is there anything now I can look forward to? I know there has been talk of them eventually moving both Cantu and Hermida. However, their young arms and Maybin I thought presented a ray of hope. But you are very convincing in painting a bleak picture.
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Tags: marlins florida florida marlins jorge cantu jermy hermida ricky nolasco josh johnson anibal sanchez andrew miller chris volstad cameron maybin
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