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Top Five Stories For 2009--Atlanta Braves PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Monday, 19 January 2009 00:00
We continue our five stories series with my favorite team, the Atlanta Braves.

1. The new look rotation. The Braves just announced the signing of Derek Lowe, who tag teams with earlier off-season acquisition Javier Vazquez, for a new top of the rotation. The team also just signed Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. Lowe is as consistent a pitcher as you could find, and since I hate describing players as simply "consistent", I'll add that he's consistently good. With a jump in his K/9 that begun in 2007 that pushed it over 6.0 and the best BB/9 of Lowe's career coming in 2008, he'll continue to post ERAs in the mid-3.00's as he induces grounders at a 60%+ rate annually. Vazquez, always the sabermetrics tease, has the chance to put up the rare season where his ERA matches his skills. Moving out of the hitter's haven in Chicago to a more neutral park and coming into the easier league without the DH should do wonders to his ERA. With any luck at all, we could be looking at a low to mid-3.00 ERA and a sleeper Cy Young candidate. Kawakami has excellent control and has posted pretty good K/9 ratios over in Japan in recent years. No word yet on his GB/FB tendencies, but he should be able to earn some mixed league value and certainly NL-Only value.

2. The outfield mess. Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, Jeff Francouer? Not an outfield that inspires excitement. The Braves are counting down the days until Jordan Schafer is ready. Unfortunately, Schafer only has 297 Double-A at-bats and no Triple-A experience and he struck out in nearly 30% of his at-bats this year. His 2008 MLE shows him currently as a .221/.331/.372 hitter. Clearly he's not ready and he'll get some more seasoning this year until he is. The Braves should probably just stomach a CF platoon of Anderson and Blanco until Schafer is ready. In LF though, they should look to bring in an upgrade, as counting on Matt Diaz is certainly not a good idea if they have any visions of contending. Perusing the remaining free agent list, I would suggest signing lefty Eric Hinske to platoon with righty Diaz as Diaz has hit much better against lefties in his career. I assume Hinske could slide over from RF. Can Frenchy rebound? Besides the precipitous drop in power since 2006, his skills have actually improved. I'm inclined to believe that last year was a fluke and he'll rebound to his 2007 HR total, but closer to his 2006 batting average. Yes, his K/BB ratio sucks, but many hitters succeed in spite of it, so I don't see why Francouer would be different, though it does increase his risk.

3. Is the newest pitching sensation named Tommy Hanson? Hanson has shot up prospect lists this year after posting a 114/41 K/BB ratio and 3.03 ERA in 98 innings at Double-A and 49/11 K/BB ratio and 0.90 ERA at High-A this year. He followed that up with a ridiculous 49/7 K/BB ratio and 0.63 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. Reports have indicated that his velocity is also up, which is a great sign for projecting how well his stuff will translate to the Majors. There are some warning signs however for those expecting Hanson to dominate immediately. Though his 2008 MLE FIP was a respectable 4.28, it was actually 4.94 at Double-A, suggesting that he's not quite ready. He has also been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career, so that is going to limit his ultimate upside. Given the fact that he has yet to throw a pitch in Triple-A, it is best to approach him with caution as the hype has gotten quite loud.

4. Will the power ever come for Casey Kotchman? Sadly for Braves fans, Kotchman was our prize for dealing Mark Teixeira. He hit poorly for the Braves upon coming over and the question is whether he could rebound from a disappointing .738 OPS and of course, if he'll ever hit for much power. Kotchman's walk rate plummeted in 2008, though his contact rate jumped to a fantastic 93%. His problem is and has always been that he hits way too many ground balls. Since when does a 1st baseman hit over 50% of his balls in play on the ground? Not only that, but he has never even managed a 10% HR/FB ratio, ignoring his flukey 26.9% in 126 at-bats in 2005. His average is going to rebound given all his grounders and that excellent contact rate, so he should annually flirt with .300. However, 20 home runs appear to be his ultimate ceiling, unless he drastically changes his approach to hit more fly balls.

5. Waiting for Heyward. The 2007 first round pick was already thought to be a steal when the Braves got him 14th overall, and so far Jason Heyward has proven his fans right. A .323/.388/.483 line in 449 Single-A at-bats was quite impressive for a player who was just 18 years old for most of the season. He walked nearly 10% of the time and had a solid 83.5% contact rate and even chipped in 15 steals while only getting caught 3 times. Scouts say Heyward has major power potential with a 30+ HR ceiling, but he's going to need to hit more fly balls than the 31% he hit in Single-A if he were to reach that level. It will be exciting to see how he fares at Double-A this season, assuming he plays there for most of the year. Though one must remember he will only be 19, playing against players much older than him for the most part, so if he has a disappointing season on the surface, it might not truly be as bad as it looks. He's going to be a good one.
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written by Boris from Downunder, January 20, 2009
Undrew puts the "gag" into lollygagger...
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 20, 2009
Absolutely agree on Dunn, it's just a matter of whether they have the money to spend after the Lowe signing. They are one hitter away from serious playoff contention I believe.
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written by Bear, January 19, 2009
I'd like to see Adam Dunn in a Braves uni. Chipper, Dunn, McCann, Francouer at 3-6. They still have money to spend so why not add the 40 HRs to their roster. he'd make up for Tex's departing. Forget Kotchman.
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written by cnick946, January 19, 2009
I love Bobby Cox, but he should wake up!
The bullpen is a mess, and he won't stop putting in Blaine Boyer and other trash.
I can't wait for the three future OF studs to be called up, maybe even four, Heyward, Hernandez, Jones, Schafer.
Franceour needs to quit opening up at the plate, it drives me insane. He isn't Adam Dunn for cryin' out loud!
At least we have one nice fixture in Brian Mccann. It would be two if Chipper wasn't so old.
Bring Andruw back, get him into shape, automatic 25+ HR's and stellar defense.
-Corey
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 19, 2009
Haha, to be honest, I'm kind of hoping we sign Andruw. I have always loved him and I refuse to give up on him. If it's cheap enough, there's no reason not to take the chance. Our alternatives are freakin Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco!!
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written by big o, January 19, 2009
nicely done.

why is it that braves' fans "consistent"ly skirt the "A" word ?
did you think that an insanely bad contract and 3000 miles would save you from future mind-numbing torture ?
are you afraid that by mentioning his name you might be helping to fulfill a prophecy ?
swarms of locusts don't scare me. so, in the spirit of "what comes around, goes around" ... and then comes back, once more, to bite you in the ass, allow me.

ANDRUW ..... ANDRUW ..... ANDRUW

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