Back from a short break, we continue through the NL West as we take a look at the top five stories for 2009 for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

1. Will Stephen Drew become the 4th most valuable shortstop? The top three shortstops are set in stone. The question lingers, however, as to who will finish 2009 at number four. Drew has improved his contact rate each year since his debut in 2006, and this rate was even better at Triple-A in 2006, suggesting further improvement is possible. His walk rate dropped back to his 2006 level after spiking in 2007, while his isolated slugging percentage rebounded, hinting at a conscious choice to go with a more aggressive approach. This led to a nearly 10% HR/FB ratio, which combined with a 40%+ FB%, allowed him to clear the 20 home run barrier. He had a big second half, as he posted skills growth in his walk rate and power, on his way to a .900+ OPS. Some of his 44 doubles could turn into additional home runs in 2009, while his batting average remains in the .290 range. Though he is not necessarily think he's the best choice to finish fourth in value, no one else clearly stands out, especially given Rafael Furcal's injury risk, so Drew has a reasonable shot.

2. Justin Upton, future superstar. Walks, speed, power, fly balls, an .816 OPS at age 20-21 at the Major League level. Mmmmmmm. His only blemish last year was a ghastly 66% contact rate. However, he was typically at the 78%-80% range in the minors, so I expect improvement this year. The one question as it pertains to his fantasy value relates to his steals. He only stole one base last year in five attempts, but stole 21 bases throughout 2007. I'm not sure why he barely stole last season, but you'd have to think he'll steal five bases at the very least this year, which will help offset a batting average that likely won't help you just yet. He might not provide that much value this year, especially in mixed leagues, but man am I salivating at his long-term potential.

3. Max Scherzer risks and rewards. First the risks: His control really isn't that great as his walk rate was between 3.0 and 4.0 during 2008 and was as high as 4.9 in 2007 at Double-A. He has had very little minor league experience, having only pitched a total of 143.2 innings over two years, with just 53.0 of those coming at Triple-A. The biggest risk at the moment came several weeks ago when he had to stop throwing because his arm wasn't feeling right. That's never a good sign for a young pitcher so this needs to be monitored closely during Spring Training. And now for the rewards: Great strikeout rates, dipping no lower than the 9.3 rate he posted at Double-A in 2007. Ground balls galore in the minors, as he posted rates near 50%. Great fastball velocity at 94.2 MPH and a good slider according to scouting reports. He's a high risk and high reward pitcher for 2009 and keep in mind that even if completely healthy, he's unlikely to pitch more than 150 innings, as he reached just 109 in 2008.

4. Conor Jackson's power upside. We keep expecting more power to come, and yet Conor continues to disappoint. He appears to me like one of those classic players that experiences a power spike with no obvious indications that this was the year it was to come. Jackson has posted solid walk rates and excellent contact rates throughout his career, so he has a good grasp of the strike zone and exercises decent patience. What I love to see is that with the exception of last year, his FB% has been above 40%, which is a range usually posted by the top power hitters. His HR/FB has been the problem, as it was a lowly 6.5% last year and just 8.0% for his career. However, with his high contact rate and solid FB%, it won't take much of a HR/FB spike to reach the 20 home run plateau. Will it happen this year? Again, there are no obvious signs, but he'll be that magical age 27 this year and he's already a pretty good hitter. In an attempt to actually predict an out-of-nowhere guy before the season, he's as good a candidate as any.

5. Chad Qualls' first year as closer. Does he have the guile, the closer mindset, the ability to not let a blown save the previous night get to him the following night's game? Blah blah blah. If a pitcher has the skills, he could close, end of story. And Qualls has the skills. Strikeouts? Check, 8.7 K/9 in 2008. Control? Check, 2.2 BB/9. Ground balls? Check, 58% GB%. Oh, and I don't even have to try to argue that he's been unlucky throughout his career. His ERA was 2.81 last year and 3.27 career, while his WHIP was 1.07 last year and 1.20 for his career. Sure, he's got some solid relievers behind him if he falters, but why would you expect him to given top notch skills? He could easily be a top 10 closer, so enjoy the last laugh as you scoop him up at a bottom tier closer price.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (1)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by zhuqian, June 22, 2009

Have you ever seen those displays of discounted wow goldchocolates after Valentine's Day and wondered what fool would wow goldbuy one

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview