This week we take a look at the Top Five Stories for the Chicago White Sox.

Just how good is Gordon Beckham? His rookie year was, obviously, a big success. But, he spent all of three months in the minors before making it to the majors, and we do not know how he will do in year two. Is he going to pull a Geovany Soto, and succumb to the sophomore slump? Year two will show us if he is merely a future All-Star or something more. Admittedly I was down on him, but I am now convinced that he will not flop in year two and will take another step forward, making him a formidable asset indeed.

Where did Alexei Ramirez’ power go? Speaking of players with good rookie years that flopped, one need only look across the diamond for a cautionary example. Only in June did Ramirez show some pop, hitting seven home runs, but the rest of the year he was a singles hitter struggling to slug .400. This is where projections go wrong; they split the difference when doing so does not make sense. One of these two years is a fluke, and 2101 will tell us which one. So why project a “split the difference” result? Place your bets on 2008; a .113 ISO in 2009 is too poor to be a fluke.

Who is the ace? While one might think it is Jake Peavy, but do not be surprised if it is John Danks or Gavin Floyd. As a former Floyd-hater, since reformed, you can be sure this is an objective opinion. In 2009 Floyd increased his K rate while lowering his BB rate, resulting in a career-high 2.76 K/BB. His luck normalized last year from 2008, but he still produced a 4.06 ERA that is above his xFIP and expected ERA. He may be peaking, and was eighth in expected FIP in the AL last year. So how much better can he get? Enough to garner Cy Young votes.

Danks, for his part, has put together two solid seasons in a row. However, he tired noticeably in the second half, seeing his xERA balloon and his K rate plummet to 5.5 K/9 from 8.2. Still only 24, if his arm holds up after 400 IP in the last two years Danks could also be poised to step into the upper echelon of starters. Coupled with Buehrle and Peavy, the Pale Hose look to have a very formidable rotation, one that makes them a contender.

Is Bobby Jenks in trouble? Despite the narratives surrounding the staff, the answer is “no, unless Ozzie Guillen is a moron.” Jenks was far better last year than in 2008, despite the higher ERA. After four straight years of a declining K rate, which led us to question him in last year’s Draft Guide, he rebounded to a relatively robust 8.3 K/9. The higher ERA was a fluke, as often happens with relievers, due to that gaudy 17% HR/FB rate, well above his career norm. That is what can happen in a short sample, and for a manager to make a decision in ignorance of this is disgraceful. Let’s hope he doesn’t.

Will Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin rebound? Alex Rios, once a top-four round pick, is now at the crossroads of his career. Like many other players before him, Rios hits too many ground balls to hit 25-20 home runs. But he still has speed, and was very unlucky in BABIP (we think) in 2009 with a .277 number. His ISO dropped due to 16 fewer doubles and six fewer triples, and he will face a full season in a favorable park. A 20-30-.280 season is in reach, and he will be a bit of a sleeper.

For his part, Quentin has never been a big BABIP guy, but last year’s .223 is ridiculous. His ISO was a still solid, but not spectacular, .219, and he was hurt again. Frankly, I have no idea what to expect, other than a far better BA, but a healthy, resurgent Quentin will go a long way to defining the 2010 season for the Sox. With that rotation, it is no stretch to say that as Quentin and Rios go so will the White Sox.

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written by Joe Lano, January 21, 2010

I like Beckham even more now that he is moving to second base.

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