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After reviewing many of the top fantasy baseball sites across the web, I continue to be amazed by the continuous snubbing of certain starting pitchers.
When I sat down to compile my own starting pitcher rankings, mine turned out much different from the conventional rankings. What I have here is a list of the top five most underrated starters based on the results of my rankings compared to those of the major websites.
1. Ted Lilly
My feelings on Ted Lilly have been made quite clear which you can read more about in this article: http://www.fantasypros911.com/ted-lilly-mr-unappreciated.html. Lilly had an ERA of just over 4.00 last year. If you cut out his first five starts, his ERA was 3.72. He has also racked up right around 180 K in the last two seasons. Lilly is a poor man’s Scott Kazmir with a better WHIP and a proven healthy track record. Consistency has to be valued and Lilly has put back to back solid seasons together. Lilly will continue to go late and cheap in drafts and will provide numbers close to the pitchers ranked in the top 30 of most websites.
2. Matt Cain
 He has been ranked highly in years past and fantasy owners are left feeling burned by him. It is somewhat debilitating to a team when a high draft choice like Cain provides only eight wins for your squad. This has to be the reason for a ranking of right around 30 on most websites. If this is not the reason then it would be hard to determine another one. One of my favorite pitchers is Chad Billingsley. He is ranked in the top 15 on most sites and in the top 10 on others. This is confusing as Cain and Billingsley are very similar in their output. Billingsley 2008: 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 201 K
Cain 2008: 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 186 K
Both pitcher’s ERAs should meet in the middle in ‘09. It would be hard for Billingsley to maintain a 3.14 ERA with a WHIP in the 1.30’s. Both men can get away with the high WHIP without their ERA’s suffering because of their abilities to get out of jams with the strikeout. Both men are very similar pitchers yet are separated by around 15 spots in the rankings.
3. Ricky Nolasco
Without much of a track record to justify a high ranking, Nolasco still remains somewhat under the radar. This selection is based more on a gut feeling than proven numbers. Nolasco was a highly touted prospect in the Cubs organization before being traded to the Marlins. Injuries also slowed his progress in the Majors but he proved last year the caliber of pitcher that he is.
Many people are still uncertain of Nolasco’s staying power therefore he ranks somewhere in the 30’s and 40’s in some sites’ rankings. However, his ability is that of a top 20 starter and this season will solidify his place among the aces of baseball. With his first full season under his belt, Nolasco should only get better. He posted a 1.10 WHIP last year and having gained experience from last season, his ERA should more reflect that kind of WHIP this year. He also has the potential to come very close to the 200 K mark this year. I have no doubt that he will once again out-perform Felix Hernandez despite his modest ranking.
4. Gavin Floyd
The Gavin Floyd bashers are out there in abundance. Many point to the numerous chances he was given in Philadelphia only to fail. They also point to somewhat pedestrian Minor League numbers. However, the light switched on for Floyd in ‘07 at AAA when he became a different pitcher. He proved he could sit at the big boy table last season.
It’s what I see when Floyd pitches that sets him apart from his rankings. He has turned into a supremely confident pitcher with one of the best curveballs in baseball. While he will most likely not repeat the 17 wins he posted last year, he will still be a very valuable fantasy option. I’m looking at him to be as good or even better than Ryan Dempster this year.
5. Armando Galarraga
Galarraga is another guy that not too many people are very high on. Some disregarding last season as illegitimate but that could be a mistake. His BABIP in the .240’s was extremely low and should see a return to normalcy this year. However, his 1.19 WHIP in ‘08 could easily be repeated in ‘09.
As Galarraga gets more seasoning, his confidence will grow. He possesses a good fastball with sharp breaking stuff. Just think of how much worse the Tigers would have been if it wasn’t for him. Don’t be shocked if he isn’t once again the best pitcher on that team this year. He has the stuff to strike out more than the 126 he did last year. As he gains experience he will learn how to avoid more bats. Galarraga has just as high of a ceiling as Jair Jurrjens and could reasonably out-perform his fellow sophomore this season.
Disagree with members of this list? Do you think Floyd and Galarraga can live up to my expectations? I’d love to hear your top fives as well.
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Comments (19)
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written by mbt shoes, April 14, 2010
Both pitcher’s ERAs should meet in the middle in ‘09. It would be hard for Billingsley to maintain a 3.14 ERA with a WHIP in the 1.30’s. Both men can get away with the high WHIP without their ERA’s suffering because of their abilities to get out of jams with the strikeout. Both men are very similar pitchers yet are separated by around 15 spots in the rankings.
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written by ksouze, April 05, 2009
Unless Jason's post is not what was initially posted; what specifically is inappropriate?
written by admin, March 16, 2009
Hey Jason,
I'll ask you to please keep your comments constructive to the article. If you can't do that, than please take your comments some where else. Thank you --Paul
written by ChristopherMulligan, March 16, 2009
Tendinitis is found in the joints, not muscles. Every pitcher goes through periods of shoulder soreness. He has had only one season since '03 in which he pitched less than 175 innings. He has had no health issues since becoming a Cub. Pretty healthy guy.
written by Jason, March 16, 2009
Lilly has a "proven healthy track record"?? He has a history of shoulder soreness and bicep tendinitis dating back to 2000.
written by ChristopherMulligan, March 15, 2009
You guys are all right about Galarraga. His WHIP will go up accordingly with his BABIP. However, I expect a lower BB rate and a higher K rate from him this year. The BB won't decrease that dramatically but I believe the K rate will increase by a nice amount. All very good comments!
written by Derek Carty, March 14, 2009
I should mention he could also lower the WHIP by increasing his K rate, though it would need to go up a good deal to keep it below 1.20.
written by Derek Carty, March 14, 2009
You're absolutely right, Mays. A BABIP rise would increase his WHIP because he'd be giving up more hits.
In fact, given his batted ball distribution, a return to a normal BABIP would see his WHIP rise to 1.33. There's is almost ZERO chance he repeats a 1.18 WHIP in 2009, unfortunately. In order for that to happen -- assuming a neutral BABIP and neutral LD luck -- he would need to lower his BB/9 from 3.1 to 1.7. Nearly impossible as very few pitchers can walk that few batters.
written by phil, March 14, 2009
agree with lilly, cain and nolasco(even though a lot of things point to him getting hurt this yr - breaking balls thrown, was hurt under 2 yrs ago, etc)...don't agree on floyd, not for the reasons you mentioned, but that he plays in a hitter's park, isnt a K guy, and wont win 17 again(you did say that).
Galarraga is intriguing and can be had after round 20 in most drafts, so at that point, why not? Or he goes undrafted and watch for him on the waiver wire.
written by Mays, March 14, 2009 His BABIP in the .240’s was extremely low and should see a return to normalcy this year. However, his 1.19 WHIP in ‘08 could easily be repeated in ‘09. It seems like if his BABIP is expected to go up, his WHIP would also rise... He'd be giving up more hits, right? Right or wrong, BABIP is probably the biggest reason why people are scared off from Floyd and Galarraga this year. In 2008 Galarraga had the 3rd lowest BABIP among starters; Floyd was 9th. If those move back towards the league average in 2009, both pitchers will be in trouble.
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Tags: starting pitchers underrated Ted Lilly Matt Cain Ricky Nolasco Gavin Floyd Armando Galarraga Ryan Dempster Scott Kazmir Felix Hernandez Jair Jurrjens
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