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Top Five 2010 Stories--Florida Marlins PDF Print E-mail
The Top Five
Written by Mike Podhorzer   
Monday, 18 January 2010 14:53
Here are the top five stories in 2010 for the Florida Marlins.

1. How much will Ricky Nolasco rebound? First off, Nolasco's current ADP of 107, or the end of the ninth round, is certainly a sign of how far fantasy owners have come in their ability to analyze the stats. I do not think I could recall a pitcher who posted an ERA as high as 5.06 the previous year who was drafted so early in the past. As a result, he will likely not be a sleeper in your league unless you are playing in one with all beginners who rely almost solely on last year's stats. So what should we expect from Nolasco in 2010?

Well, though his ERA did not show it, he actually pitched better than in 2009. His strikeout rate jumped 1.6 points, which is huge, while his walk rate spiked too, but remained at a level that kept his K/BB ratio exactly the same as 2008. Research has indicated that given identical K/BB ratios, the pair that includes the higher K/9 will produce a lower ERA, all else equal. As a fly ball pitcher, he will continue to give up the long ball, but at least they will mostly be solo shots given his stinginess with the free pass. Though a below average Marlins defense that is expected to remain intact in 2010 means Nolasco's inflated .336 BABIP from 2009 might not regress that much, we have to assume that his 61% strand rate will bounce back to at least the league average rate around 71%. That would bring his ERA down near his 2008 level, with upside for better if he could sustain most of his strikeout rate gain and he receives better defensive support.

2. Is Cameron Maybin finally ready to succeed at the Major League level? It seems like Maybin has been around forever, but he'll still be just 23 years old during the 2010 season. Maybin's problem is simple: he just does not make enough contact, especially for a hitter with such mediocre power. Prior to 2009, his contact rate had always been near the 70% mark, which is typically seen from top sluggers, not ground ball hitting speedsters. In 2009 however, Maybin made a breaktrough as he made contact at an 80% clip at Triple-A, during his first taste of that level. The good news is that the improvement carried over. Maybin opened the season with the Marlins, but made contact at a pathetic 63% rate. After being demoted and then recalled in September, his contact rate jumped to 78%, a much more acceptable level. If he could maintain that level this year, then he could provide a nice power/speed combo, without killing your batting average. One caveat about his power, though, is that he has been an extreme ground ball hitter, with rates above 50%, so his home run potential right now is probably not as high as you might believe if you listen to scouts. Last, Maybin underwent surgery on his left shoulder to repair a partially torn labrum, which could slow him in spring training and affect his power. This is definitely something to monitor.

3. Will Leo Nunez hold onto the closer role all season? Nunez took over the closer's job after Matt Lindstrom was knocked out of action due to injury and managed to record 26 saves. His strikeout rate was the highest of his career, though his walk rate jumped to finish at the worst mark of his career as well. His opposition contact rate dove to an excellent 74%, which suggests that the strikeout rate spike was for real. Although his average fastball velocity was identical to 2008 at a strong 94.4 miles per hour, he threw the pitch with less frequency, halved his usage of his slider, and nearly doubled the usage of his change-up.

Given the dramatic change in pitch selection, it appears reasonable to believe this may have led to the spike in strikeout rate and is repeatable. Unfortunately for Nunez, the increased strikeout rate is a must, as he remains a fly ball pitcher without great control. The one thing Nunez has going for him is that there is little competition in the Marlins pen right now. Dan Meyer is certainly capable of handling ninth inning duties, but he is a lefty and Fredi Gonzalez seemed hesitant to give him the role last season. Nunez is decent enough to hold the job all season, but only a big dose of good luck would make him any more than a bottom-tier closer.

4. Will 2010 see the arrival of the powerful Mike Stanton? After his 39 homers in only 468 at-bats in 2008, fantasy owners and Marlins fans are drooling over Mike Stanton's power potential. Unfortunately, contact is a major problem right now, as he struck out in one-third of his at-bats at Double-A in 2009. That could work for sluggers like Jack Cust who also have a ton of power, but the difference is that Cust has a career walk rate of nearly 18%. Stanton's Double-A walk rate was just 9.4%, which would be just below average had it been posted in the Majors. Given that his batting average is unlikely to be very good without the benefit of a high BABIP, he will need to become more patient at the plate to avoid become a low-OBP, home-run hitter and little else. He is still only 20 years old, so he has more than enough time to improve his contact ability and patience. He will likely start the season at Double-A and move on to Triple-A, and depending upon his performance there, could see some time in the Majors at the end of the season.

5. What happened to Chris Volstad and will he be given another chance? The short answer is that his 2008 performance made him overvalued and he really was not that good of a prospect to begin with, leading to a 2009 season that should not have come as too much of a surprise. However, he actually improved his skills in 2009, but a ridiculous 17.5% HR/FB ratio masked his progress and got him demoted. The biggest positive in Volstad's skill set is his ground ball tendencies. He posted rates around the 50% mark his last two seasons. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate is below average, and his track record has not shown the potential for much better. His control is above average, but nothing special.

If he could improve his control to the levels he posted in the minors, he could potentially match Paul Maholm's stats, which is pretty solid from a real baseball perspective, but will still produce little value outside of NL-only leagues due to the inferior strikeout rate. He should certainly be given another chance as part of the Marlins rotation since he is not as bad as his 2009 ERA would indicate, but his 2008 season may have inflated expectations unfairly.
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