Here are the top five stories surrounding the 2010 Detroit Tigers.

How much of a disaster will the infield be? Right now it looks like a full-fledged disaster and they have no chance of contention without upgrades. Aside from Miguel Cabrera, they will be starting Scott Sizemore at Second Base, Adam (gulp) Everett at Shortstop and Brandon Inge at Third. There is a non-zero chance than none of these guys finish in the top 20 at their position. Inge is a lock for a batting average south of .240 and an OBP south of .300 and was sufficiently terrible in the second half that there are some serious questions as to whether he is done, despite a knee injury. Sizemore will be a popular pick, but as with many rookies, no matter how rosy the projection there is a serious chance of failure. Not that the OF is much better…. 

Can Austin Jackson even hold a job? If he does consider it an upset. His long-term potential may be fine, but in the short term there is a big chance of flopitude (that is a perfectly cromulent word). Maybe it is a personal flaw but 23-year-olds that struggle with contact, do not have good batting eyes and have no power do not excite me no matter how fleet of foot they may be or how impressive the scouting reports. 

Will Miguel Cabrera’s off-field troubles affect him? Probably not. In these politically correct times, let me strike a pro-alcohol chord. If it was good enough for Paul Waner, Hack Wilson and Babe Ruth it is good enough for Cabrera. If he is playing drunk that is another story but no one alleges that. Unless alcohol is a performance enhancer, I do not care about this story at all. 

How good will Justin Verlander be? Right now that bad 2008 looks like a fluke. He has been rock solid and made significant improvement across the board in 2009. Looking at his core skills, that 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 puts him right up there with Tim Lincecum. Verlander’s BABIP close to .330 means there may even be some upside, though wins may be tough to come by with that “lineup.” He has a special place in my heart after I was called out by three-time Tout Wars champ Mike Lombardo for my $14 bid in the Expert’s League last year. 

Can Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer solidify that rotation? It is a definite yes in Scherzer’s case. If he stays healthy, my opinion is that he is a top-20 AL pitcher and will far surpass Porcello. Scherzer’s Chase Field-induced 1.5 HR/9 may be cut in half in Detroit, and his two years in the majors produced an aggregate K/BB close to 3.0 and a K rate north of 9.0/9. In addition, his expected ERA has yet to go higher than 3.99. This is a stud in the making so draft him and speak well of FP911 when he becomes a star. 

I am far less sanguine about Porcello, no matter how many sites I read extolling his virtues. Let’s give management credit in their handling of Porcello; they were true virtuosos in conducting his season to protect him, and he performed admirably. While he has good velocity, 4.7 K/9 is terrible and his K/BB rate below two and an expected ERA north of 4.50 do not instill confidence. His youth cuts both ways; he may improve or perhaps he is too raw to make the next step yet. I don’t know any more than you do.

With rookies, we are often told to look at the second half as a harbinger of the next season. In Porcello’s case it is not a help; he was just as good/bad in the second half as in the first. In fact, the two halves were virtually identical. The ground balls will limit the damage, but a Jon Garland clone is not what we are hoping for here.

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