Aaron, Cobb, Mays, Ruth, Wagner.  They need no first names to identify themselves because they are Hall of Famers.  Here I pick 10 players active and under 30 who I think will join their ranks.

In any given season, there are at least 30 players active who will one day wind up in the Hall of Fame. I counted 36 players active in 1970 who eventually ended up in Cooperstown. In 1975 the number was 39. We already have 31 who were active in 1980 and the strong possibility of adding more in the future.

Normally it is easy to predict 10 people active in any year who are going to make Cooperstown. But in this era, we are just an accusation or admission of steroid usage away from a player being a lock to a question mark. This time last year Alex Rodriguez would have been a slam dunk pick by everyone eventually to wind up in the Hall of Fame. Now nobody knows.

Still, there are a lot of worthy candidates when counting down the potential Hall of Famers active. So to cut down the list of candidates, I restricted it to players under 30 this year, as of June 30^th.

Now, this is a subjective list through and through. But here I present the Top 10 Under 30 (Future) Hall of Famers in 2009.

10. Felix Hernandez - 46 W, 3.67 ERA, 683 K, 1.307 WHIP Age 23

Hernandez has been on our radar for so long that it is easy to forget that this is his age 23 season. His numbers are good, not outstanding, but he is in the midst of a breakout year in 2009. ESPN shows him on pace for 17 W and 218 K, which would both be career-best marks. If he averages 12 W a season, he will have 135 wins at age 30.

Even though his HR are down this season, McCann is having a great year. He has a .327/.419/.522 slash line. Those are wonderful numbers for any player and are extra special from a catcher. McCann has been the starting catcher for three straight All-Star games and he already has two Silver Slugger Awards to his name.

 

While most of his birthday peers are in Double-A or lower, Upton is participating in his third year in the majors. After an injury-plagued 2008 season, Upton has a .313/.395/.571 slash line in 2009. His OPS+ sits at 145. To put that in perspective, it would be the 24^th-best mark in MLB history for a player 21 or younger. The people ahead of him on the list read like a Hall of Fame roll call. Joe Jackson, Jimmy Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb are the top five. Only two players ahead of him on the list and eligible are not in Cooperstown: Cesar Cedeno and Hal Trosky. And Trosky had his career cut short due to migraines.

A poor September kept him from a .300 AVG last year.  But he seems a threat to hit 40 HR and bat .300 for the next 10 seasons. He already has a Rookie of the Year Award to his credit. And even with the late slump, he finished third in the MVP race, grabbed his first All-Star appearance and earned a Silver Slugger Award last year. And this year he currently sports a 156 OPS+

The reigning Cy Young Award winner is pitching every bit as well this season. After two poor starts to open the year, Lincecum has a 2.26 ERA in his past 12 starts. Batters have a .220/.268/.283 line versus him in that time span. Basically he is making the entire league hit like Mario Mendoza, although to be fair Mendoza slugged .310 in 1980.

Just a year older than Braun, Cabrera has a 103-HR lead over the Milwaukee slugger. Last year he batted .292 and led the league with 37 HR and it was a below-average season for him. After dipping to an .887 OPS in 2008, Cabrera is back over .900 this year with a .928 mark. A four-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Cabrera already has 68 points in the Hall of Fame Monitor. A likely Hall of Famer will have around 100 points.

An offensive powerhouse who plays a key defensive position, Ramirez’ numbers are down somewhat this season but he still has a .324 AVG and an .897 OPS. Perhaps a better fantasy player than an actual ballplayer, Ramirez is still an outstanding talent. His defensive problems are overblown due to a terrible 2007. Otherwise in his career he has been a slightly below-average shortstop. 

3. C.C. Sabathia – 123 W, 3.66 ERA, 1,462 K, 1.236 WHIP Age 28

The 2007 Cy Young Award winner, Sabathia almost made it back-to-back, as he finished fifth in the National League last year after going 11-2 in 17 games after an early July trade from Cleveland. Some might think he deserves the Cy Young this year, if only for allowing just four HR in 49.2 innings at the homer palace known as Yankee Stadium. Many people worry about his weight and his innings pitched totals. But there is no doubt he has built a very solid Hall of Fame case in the first half of his career.

It may surprise you seeing Wright’s name this high but the list of great offensive third basemen in the Hall of Fame is a very short one. There are four outstanding hitters who played the majority of their career at third base in Cooperstown and they are Wade Boggs, George Brett, Eddie Mathews and Mike Schmidt. One day soon Chipper Jones will join them. And in 20 years Wright will bring the total to six. This year Wright’s power numbers are down but he is compensating with the best AVG of his career. And he could break his career mark for steals, too. Deserved or not, Wright has two Gold Glove Awards and has made some highlight-reel plays at third during his career. He has two Silver Slugger Awards and two All-Star games on his resume and has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting the past three years.

 

The only thing keeping Pujols out of the Hall of Fame right now is the 10-year requirement. He won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2001, he has two MVP Awards and has yet to finish out of the top 10 in MVP balloting. He has a 207 score on the Hall of Fame Monitor and a 46 score on the Hall of Fame Standards, which has an average Hall of Famer with a total of 50. He currently has a 195 OPS+ as he leads the league in both OBP (.444) and SLG (.684). Your grandkids will be jealous that you got to see Albert Pujols in his prime.

If 10 different people made this list, only Pujols would be guaranteed to be on each one. Which players not on this list who are under 30 do you feel will wind up in Cooperstown?

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written by Brian Joura, June 22, 2009

Thanks Christopher. As a Mets fan, it feels like Josh Johnson is already a Hall of Famer. We just can't hit that guy. And Crawford definitely has gotten back in the discussion with the year he's having in 2009.

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written by Christopher Mulligan, June 22, 2009

Great job with the article Brian. I would have to put Carl Crawford up there too. Even as he gets older and the wheels start to slow a little, he can still hit .300 and drive in runs. He will go down as the best base stealer of his generation.

As far as pitchers go, I'm going go out on a bit of a limb and say Josh Johnson. He has had health problems and we still haven't seen a whole lot from him but the stuff and the mentality are there.

Good work pal.

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written by Brian Joura, June 21, 2009

Hi Ron, thanks for the comment!

Well, forgot is not the right word. I simply chose McCann and Cabrera over those guys. This is subjective and if I make this list again next year perhaps Mauer and Morneau find their way on it.

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You forgot the Twins
written by Ron Henry, June 21, 2009

No Mauer???? No Morneau???

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written by Brian Joura, June 21, 2009

Thanks for the comment, RJ

I think having Santo and Allen on your comp list is a good thing. Of course, we have to see if Wright regains his power stroke. It's a whole different thing if he's struggling to hit 10 HR per year. But I can't imagine this is a long-term thing with him.

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Based on similarity scores ...
written by R. J. Lesch, June 21, 2009

... your most likely hits are the position players, especially McCann, Braun, Cabrera and . Through last season they have careers similar to two or more hall-of-famers, and probably will keep going.

The pitchers are dicier, since they can flame out early. Sabathia's career is tracking with folks like Maddux and Carlton, but also with McLain, McNally and Alex Fernandez.

Wright is going to be interesting. He tracks as similar to Ripken and Rice (both in) but also with Santo, d**k Allen and Harlond Clift, who aren't. It'll be interesting to see where he ends up.

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