I’m late to the party, but the trade was finally made official yesterday. I’m not going to bother rehashing everything since you could find the same stuff on every other fantasy baseball website. So I’ll make this a quickie.

Baseball HQ Park Factors from 2005-2007

 
RHB means right-handed batters. Obviously, the ballpark switch will have a dramatic effect on Holliday’s numbers. I’m going to try a quick, non-scientific, basic translation of his last 3 year’s HR and batting average numbers if he had played in Oakland. I’ll leave his road numbers alone and adjust only his home numbers.

 
Also remember that he had fewer at-bats in 2008 due to injury, so he would have had a couple of more HRs given a full season.

Let’s take a stab at an actual projected stat line for 2009. The Athletics aren’t typically a running team, and combined with the fact that Holliday hadn’t stolen more than 14 bases until this season, you can’t expect another nearly 30 SB campaign. Next, the A’s scored the 4th fewest runs in baseball, so his RBI+R totals will be negatively impacted. With that said, here’s what I came up with when I plug in Holliday’s peripherals into my spreadsheet:

 
That $23 fantasy value is based on my 12-team, mixed league with standard settings and rosters. That would have placed him 28th overall in fantasy value going into 2008 drafts (I’m using my 2008 draft spreadsheet, but it which shouldn’t change much for 2009), which would make him worth a mid-3rd round pick. I will bet that he won’t last that long in any drafts next year, so he will likely disappoint owners who didn’t downgrade his value enough.

Here are my thoughts on the players the Rockies received:

Greg Smith- Below average strikeout rate, poor control, and extreme fly ball pitcher, a trio that does not mix well with Coors Field. He relied upon a .258 BABIP and 7.9% HR/F to finish with a respectable 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I get an ERA of around 5.00 and a 1.50 WHIP when plugging in his expected peripherals, with the ballpark switch and luck reversal offset by improved skills due to the league switch. Obviously, you don’t want him anywhere near your roster, and I wouldn’t even pay $1 for him in an NL-Only league. However, he’s an early candidate to take Razzball MVP honors.

Huston Street- Will he be moved to a 3rd team? Maybe, but for now, let’s assume he remains a Rockie. It sounds like Corpas will still close even if Street stays, but Huston is still a very good pitcher who was hampered by injuries in 2008, yet still finished with a sub-4.00 ERA. He makes for a great LIMA choice in NL-Only leagues and has a great chance of producing a profit for his owners.

Carlos Gonzalez- His top prospect status has dimmed after becoming overrated. Now his overratedness is losing steam as many have probably downgraded his long-term potential after an unimpressive 2008 split between Triple-A and the majors. He won’t hit for average just yet and hasn’t shown great HR power in the minors. He’ll chip in some steals though, but he’s nothing more than a cheap flier in NL-Only leagues, especially non-keepers. Mixed leaguers could do better, but he’s young and he’s obviously in a great situation now, so he’s worth keeping an eye on.

As usual, I wrote a lot more than I expected. So much for this being a quickie!

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