Colby Lewis' first stint in Texas was not memorable in the least, but after a detour in Japan, there is reason to be excited. According to Davenport Translations, his Equivalent ERA (EqERA) was 3.59 in 2008 and 4.37 in 2009--that's also the range of outcomes found in his more optimistic PECOTA forecasts. I didn't like Lewis' earlier forecasts that had him retaining his dominance, but I'm partial to the idea of him being a pitcher capable of a 4.10-4.20 ERA or so, possibly better, depending on how many strikeouts he can bring with him from Japan, and how well the Rangers defense plays.

Lewis was good for well over a strikeout per inning in Japan, but his equivalent rates are a little under eight per nine--that seems reasonable to me, and given he's not expected to walk a lot of batters (a problem for him his first time around in the majors) he could surprise a lot of people--assuming that control holds up. He's a sleeper in my mind, one a lot of people seemed to keep forgetting about on draft day.

I am guessing that Colby Lewis will post an ERA around 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.25.  He had a 1.17 BB/9 over 354.3 innings the last two years in Japan, and I think the pinpoint control will continue to the extent that he will help in the WHIP category.  I also think he'll have a K/9 north of 7.0.  Basically I agree with CHONE and PECOTA rather than ZiPS and HQ.

Given his home park, I think we have to allow for the chance Lewis gives up a decent share of home runs.  That is why I'm not more aggressive with the ERA projection.  Innings may also limit his value, as he has never reached 180 in his pro career.

Beyond the Japanese stats, I was sold on Lewis by this article by ESPN's Tim Kurkjian.  Kurkjian explained that 12-13 teams were in on Lewis, and the fact that he received a two-year, $5MM deal coming back from Japan speaks to his ability.  Jon Daniels talked about how Lewis changed his delivery and arm angle in Japan, and throws 90-95 with a hard cutter.  I own him on two of three teams and will be watching closely.

Colby Lewis -
Japanese leagues stats frequently get 'lost in translation' when translating them to MLB stats.  For every Hideki Matsui, there's a Kaz Matsui.  For every Ichiro, there's a So.  The starting pitching front has proven easier in that the safer bet is to be conservative in your expectations.  Dice-K proved unworthy of the hype and Kawakami met modest expectations.

But Colby Lewis is unique as he's the first pitcher to go from the Japanese league to MLB (Cecil Fielder is the most notable hitter).  His biggest issue during his first stint with the Rangers was his wildness - in 2003, he had a 4.96 BB/9 over 127 IP.  That has seemingly been corrected.  It's doubtful, though, that his K-rate has appreciated and at about 6 to 6.5 K/9.  His GB% was average at best in his first stint which isn't great for a pitcher with half his starts in Arlington.

ZiPs projects an 11-9 season with a 4.39 ERA/1.30 WHIP and 128 Ks over 176 IP.  This seems like a reasonable projection.  I'd err more conservatively and go with a 4.70 ERA/1.35 WHIP which would make him a matchup pitcher in shallow mixed leagues and a rosterable pitcher in deeper leagues.  I'd be more bullish on him if he was in the NL, particularly the NL West.    

Is it me or are projections virtually worthless for players like this? It is a fair statement to say that no one has any reasonable idea what to expect, at least in terms of statistical projection. So I have to disagree with my distinguished colleagues above, at least to the degree to which they rely on the formulaic projections. Translations from Japan are spotty at best and pitchers coming to the Majors have a checkered record, to put it mildly. 

But, where sabermetrics fails, scouts can come to the rescue. Here we have 12-13 teams, as pointed out above, that were interested in him. If it were one or two that might safely be ignored, but when a dozen teams are interested and the player gets a large contract based on speculation we must take notice. We can therefore safely assume that despite his past performance he will be at least a minimally-qualified major league pitcher.

Lewis showed improved control, plays in a tough park and has by far the tougher league to navigate. All in all, something slightly below average should be a fair expectation, perhaps a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

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written by Steve F, April 12, 2010

Does Colby's first MLB start alter anyone's views (acknowledging that it is just one game)? His velocity wasn't quite as advertised (average fastball 89.5mph, peaking at 91.9mph), Pitch F/X didn't count any of his pitches as cutters, and his command was not that sharp.

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