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01
Mar
2009
The "Going Young" Strategy PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Chris Mulligan's Pitch or Ditch
Written by Christopher Mulligan   
Take a look at the top 50 starting pitchers. How many of them are above the age of 30? A handful at the most. Baseball has been rejuvenated with an abundance of young, productive arms and the depth of starting pitching talent is growing year by year. However, with young pitching comes inconsistency and a lack of dependability.
Of course there are many ways to go about selecting a starting staff. Some people like to get pitching early and some like to get pitching late. Others prefer a balanced attack. This is all based on personal preference along with knowledge of where you can get certain players.

After you have established where you want to get your starters it behooves you to decide what kind of pitchers you want. A strategy employed by many fantasy players is the “going young” strategy. Most people want some degree of youth in their starting staffs but others want nothing but youth. There is nothing wrong with going young but there is a certain way that you should go about it. I am going to lay out some examples of safely going young and dooming your staff by going too young.

Going Young Safely

The safety comes with familiarity. By familiarity I mean pitchers who are somewhat proven. When going young you want to have at least some experience to go along with it. There are plenty of young pitchers out there with short but quality track records. If you can land yourself a few of these guys then you can go ahead and take your risks on sleepers or rookies.

Here is an example of a young but relatively safe starting staff:

- Chad Billingsley
- Matt Cain
- Zack Greinke
- Adam Wainwright
- John Danks
- Kevin Slowey
- Clayton Kershaw

Part of the strategy behind going young is to concentrate on offense early and wait on pitching. There is nothing wrong with doing this and it is a strategy that I have employed many times. However, you have to know when enough is enough and when you are falling way behind in the pitching categories. If Billingsley is my first pitcher taken then I waited until about the eighth round to take my first pitcher yet was still able to get a young and proven arm. This is followed up by Cain, Greinke, Wainwright, Danks, and Slowey - all young pitchers with at least two years of starting experience under their belts. All of these pitchers also have ERA’s under 4.00 with solid K numbers. After solidifying the staff, a risk pick in the unproven Kershaw is acceptable. If this is the bulk of your starting staff you should be in good shape.

Going Young Recklessly

There are crazy people in this world and then there are the suicidal. Going too young on your starting staff is unnecessarily reckless and there is a high possibility of your season ending tragically. As fantasy players, we’re always looking for the next young ace but compiling a staff of sleepers and rookies is going to land you in the middle of the pack in pitching categories at best.

Following the premise of offense first with young arms late, here is an example of a fantasy player trying to be too smart for his/her own good:

- Joba Chamberlain
- Edinson Volquez
- David Price
- Brandon Morrow
- Max Scherzer
- Clayton Kershaw
- Johnny Cueto

This here is an obvious case of someone thinking they know something the others do not. The common theme with these pitchers is that with the exception of Volquez, not a single one of them has more than one year experience as a starting pitcher in the majors. Unless this is a keeper league, this starting staff is poorly formed. Every one of these pitchers has astronomical potential but their inexperience is a detriment. Inexperience in itself is manageable when surrounded by experience but an entire staff of inexperience is not going to win you anything.

What does a typical rookie starting pitcher’s stat line look like? It is something like this: 9 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. A staff full of pitchers with this line is going to put you in a big hole in most pitching categories.

It is great when you get your hands on that next young stud fantasy ace. You get him cheap in the later rounds and look like a genius. Just do not make your whole staff full of them. Keep in mind this saying - not all things that glitter are gold.
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Comments (5)Add Comment
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written by ChristopherMulligan, March 03, 2009
I'm not saying that you don't want one or two of those young arms on your team. You just don't want a team full of them.
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written by DRAFTAHOLIC, March 02, 2009
Hey, don't forget that at least half of fantasypros911 readers are in keeper leagues. Therefore it is wise to own one of the above players, if you are always looking to replace a vibrant arm for one that is withering.
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written by ChristopherMulligan, March 01, 2009
well said Big O
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written by big o, March 01, 2009
implicit in this should be the understanding that 150 innings (max) is not going to cut it .
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written by kevinorris, March 01, 2009
Scherzer is one guy that I'm staying away from this year. There's enough young pitching talent that is just as good as his, and he had publicly mentioned elbow/shoulder stiffness about a month ago and a young pitcher with anything like that is one that I am hesitant to grab.

I think Scott Baker could also go under the safe young guys.

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