Here is the type of great content and analysis that you are missing if you don't subscribe to the Premium site. This week Gabriel Lundeen looks at some injury risks in the first five rounds of drafts. If you want to read the best analysis and writing in the industry subscribe to our Premium site, where you will get the most insightful articles from Brian Joura, Mike Podhorzer, Eric Stashin, Pat DiCaprio, Chuck Anderson and the rest of the staff, including the best draft guide in the industry.
These days, it seems like every player faces injury at some point during the season. Injuries are an unfortunate fact of life, and anyone can get hurt any time.
The Premium Tease--Injury Risks
It's one thing to take an injury risk guy late in your draft, but what do you do with the elite players who represent injury risks? How do you pass up some of the top names in baseball because of what may or may not happen?
Let’s look at some big time injury risks in the first five rounds. Referring to this group of players as “big time” holds dual meaning. While some of these guys may be a DL stint waiting to happen, the payoff can be huge if they stay healthy.
Because pitchers can be so inherently volatile, we'll focus on hitters.
Rafael Furcal - ADP: 60 - The problem with back pain: it rarely just disappears. Furcal's ADP puts him at about the 5th round, which is higher than he went in 2008. What has he done in that year to gain so much fanfare? His hot start to 2008 (.357 BA with 8 steals in 36 games) culminated in a lost season. He could be a top 5 SS if he stays healthy all year, but this seems like an unnecessary risk to take. Stolen bases will come cheaper than this in 2009. PASS
Chase Utley – ADP: 20 If Utley falls out of the first round in your draft, he could represent amazing value. Let’s see how he looks in Spring Training, but he appears to be recovering very well from his hip surgery and aims to be ready for Opening Day. If he slips into the 2nd round of your draft, he's almost impossible to pass up. Still the best second baseman in the land and an offensive force to be reckoned with, Chase Utley may decide a lot of leagues in 2009. TAKE HIM
David Ortiz - ADP: 49 Wrist injuries sap power. Ortiz’s skill set will not age well, and he could be on the path to Mo Vaughn-dom. The good news is that he can hide in the DH slot, still plays in Fenway Park and seems to understand the limitations his injuries have brought on him. He may no longer be the same power threat, but he knows how to put the bat on the ball, and could still accrue great RBI totals in the Sox lineup even if the HRs are diminished. He could represent tremendous value, but anywhere in the first 5 rounds is too early for me, especially considering he clogs your Utility slot and therefore hurts your team flexibility. PASS
Vladimir Guerrero - ADP: 40 – Torii Hunter says Vlad’s got a spring back in his step - Spring Training cliche or sage-like words of wisdom? The sabermetricians among us would say that his numbers, skills and peripherals have been eroding for the last 4 years in a row, which is cause for worry. Still, he's fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, slimmed down a bit and wants to earn a juicy contract extension from the Angels. Take the risk and be well rewarded. Vlad ‘09 is Manny ’08 minus the mood swings. TAKE HIM
Albert Pujols - ADP: 3 – This is a tough one. People balked at his elbow last year and he goes on to win NL MVP honors. Pujols is still a transcendent player, one of the great talents in modern baseball history who will likely take his place in Cooperstown when he retires, but I won’t be picking him in 2009. With so many other great first rounders to choose from that can fill positions far more shallow than first base, go in another direction and sidestep the issue. Surgery may not have been an immediate option in 2008, but can it last forever? PASS
Chipper Jones - ADP: 50 - Few hitters are as good as Chipper when he’s firing on all cylinders. Third base is very shallow this year, and there’s a huge drop-off after Jones goes off the board. He’s worth a risk because of the way he can carry your team for stretches of the season, but you’ll have to draft a back-up plan for when he inevitably hits the DL. Jones easily earns 5th to 6th round value, but only if you construct your team properly so he doesn’t leave you a Greg Dobbs-sized hole when he gets hurt. TAKE HIM
BJ Upton - ADP: 17 – The upside here is undeniable. Baseball Prospectus injury expert Will Carroll seems to think his shoulder is fine, as evidenced by his 8th overall choice of Upton in a recent expert mock draft. Carroll likes to be controversial with his mock draft picks every year, but you don’t need to be in your draft. Is taking the risk on that upside really worth passing up a guaranteed RBI man like Carlos Lee, for example? This is also not the first time Upton’s been injured. For now, the price is too high. Look out for his brother Justin seventeen rounds later instead. PASS
Carl Crawford - ADP: 28 - Can we officially say that Crawford seems unlikely to develop the power everyone said he would, or wishes he would? Leg injuries took their toll last year, and for a guy whose entire value is tied up in speed, second round is simply too high. Crawford has little chance of “killing the category” in stolen bases, anyway, so beware using that rationale to justify the pick. With so many great outfield speed sources available late in drafts, get a truly elite bat and let someone else overpay for his “potential”. I'm staying away entirely – there’s just too much talent in the first 2 rounds. PASS
Taking risks is a part of propelling yourself to a championship, but too many injury risks are a sure-fire path to 10th place. Injuries happen enough in baseball - why tempt fate? Sometimes it's best to let these sorts of players drop, and remember they fell to you for a reason. Choose certainty wherever you can take it. Lock in value.
All of these players possess great upside. There isn't a single guy on this list who, on some level, you would not want. They're all fine picks, but watch how many of these guys you acquire on your team.
Which player represents the greatest injury risk in the first 5 rounds to you?
Chase Utley – ADP: 20 If Utley falls out of the first round in your draft, he could represent amazing value. Let’s see how he looks in Spring Training, but he appears to be recovering very well from his hip surgery and aims to be ready for Opening Day. If he slips into the 2nd round of your draft, he's almost impossible to pass up. Still the best second baseman in the land and an offensive force to be reckoned with, Chase Utley may decide a lot of leagues in 2009. TAKE HIM 
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