FP911 Login or Register Today
The FP911 Premium Content
Premium Side Articles
Follow FantasyPros911 Here
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other Articles You Might Like
- Error
|
As some of you may know, I've worked for a handful of web sites including MLBFrontOffice.com, MajorLeagueReport.com, and FantasyBaseballGenerals.com, and through contacts I met through each of those sites I've been able to set up multiple interviews (with many more to come this off season!) with major and minor leaguers. Over the summer I was able to get an interview with veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer (check out his web site at www.MoyerFoundation.org) and asked him a question I feel that we all would have- How long do you think you can pitch and what are the signs that you would say to yourself that the hitters are catching up to you?
 His answer: "Good question. I’m taking it a year at a time at this point. I really pay close attention to how I feel and how my body feels. The other thing is, the hitters will tell me. The will tell me on a consistent basis. I can tell you right now, that I have a couple of outings a year where I am just not good. But, if you look at any starting pitcher during the course of the season when you’re getting 30 or more starts, we’re all in that same boat. It’s just how bad are you? The way I look at it is if you take those 3-5 bad starts away and remove the 3-5 good starts away, the bulk of your season is in the remainder of 25 or so starts. If you pitch well in those games, you have a chance to make a big contribution to your ballclub." First off, Moyer just got a new two year contract this off season to stay in Philladelphia. When I asked the question, I was expecting a limited response with something along the lines of until he feels its time, but instead, I was given a response that has inspired me to try something new. I've began to try to evaluate pitchers by removing four of their best and worst starts from each season to try and determine their contribution to their ballclub. My reasoning is that Jamie points out that on 3-5 times per year, you will have your absolute best stuff, and 3-5 times you will also have trouble. Maybe a pitcher just got divorced and has some mental issues to work out and that caused him to slow down, then this can help determine his value without those starts. Although this theory won't get you too far in fantasy baseball, it can help to determine what a pitchers true ERA should be. Maybe one complete game that he threw had a big effect on his ERA, or a one inning performance where that pitcher allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks. These things all get factored out in this 'theory.' How about some examples? Let's start off with Matt Garza, a guy that some people will have a close eye on come draft day, and others will allow fellow drafters to pick him up. I have gone game by game and removed each of his four best and worst starts (in my opinion) and have come up with 'adjusted' statistics for his 2008 season. Matt Garza's 2008 4SS (4 Start System)
As you can see, Garza's numbers didn't change too much, but you can tell that the few solid starts that he had last year had a decent impact on his stats. Now, let's look at a pitcher that everyone is familiar with, Tim Lincecum. Tim Lincecum's 2008 4SS
Lincecum was hard to choose his best and worst starts, because he had so many fantastic ones and few bad ones. His adjusted ERA goes way down with the 4SS, but his WHIP and K/9 are very similar. This goes to show, that a young pitcher like Lincecum, who still has lots of time to improve, could actually have posted a 2.37 ERA this year.  One guy who I find to be very interesting is CC Sabathia, who was traded from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers in July. In the beginning of the season, Sabathia was terrible, so it was pretty easy to eliminate his worst starts, but his best were hard to decide from since he posted so many complete games. CC Sabathia's 2008 4SS
As you can see with Sabathia, by eliminating those terrible starts, and even eliminating his best starts, he would have won another CY Young and probably an MVP with such great numbers. Therefore, if Sabathia can return to his 2008 form still at the young age of 28, he could put up top of the line numbers. Some may feel this system is not very effective, and it serves little purpose, but to me, it makes the decision between Sabathia and Lincecum that much easier (it's very close otherwise), but I have to go with CC. Although he's moving to a better hitting division, he still gets to match up with teams like Toronto and Baltimore multiple times. Feel free to let me know what you think of the system, and if there is any credibility to it- just comment right below this article. Do you like Sabathia or Lincecum in 2009? Why? And thanks again to Jamie Moyer for participating in one of my many interviews. Trackback(0)
Comments (10)
  written by kevinorris, January 10, 2009
I forgot to mention- I agree 100% that any given player will not duplicate those four bad starts, but it helps to cancel out those great starts. Although I'm the guy that posted the article, I'm not a HUGE fan of it, but I thought it would be something that I could share to see if anyone else had any input on it.
I think it's use in fantasy baseball is limited. I like you Rob, also had Smoltz at that point.
written by kevinorris, January 10, 2009
Brian- I'll try to make some free time to experiment with closers that way.
Troy- I don't really see there being any true benefit to fantasy leagues, but I posted it just as a fun thing to look at, and to help set a difference between Sabathia and Lincecum. I understand what you mean about Wakefield, but I was just following along with Moyer's statement here to see if there was any statistical truth behind it. Lincecum faces easier competition this year, but CC has more experience and out pitched everyone in the second half of the season.
written by RobReed, January 10, 2009
Interesting idea... no matter how hard I try, though, I'm gonna get the 4 worst.
For instance, that 8 ER, .2 IP game Smoltz had? I got that one in my money league.  I remember it all too well.
written by TroyPatterson, January 10, 2009
Sorry as the sabermetrics guy I have to disagree with this use of removing starts. If you can identify a start like Brian said regarding Smoltz and his 8 ER in 0.2 IP that makes sence as I will describe later, but those 8 starts you are removing are subjective and even if a pitcher feels he "didn't have it" some night, that doesn't mean that wasn't his true ability.
The only time I would really remove starts is when a pitcher who is an innings eater like Tim Wakefield and was left in to long to save the bullpen and was left out even if he gives up 7-8 runs. The reason I say you can't remove these starts is you are going to have these numbers every year so you can't expect them to not have the 3-5 worst games next year. Even with this stat I can't see the difference between CC and Lincecum making me like CC more than Timmy.
written by BrianJoura, January 10, 2009
I think this is interesting from a real baseball POV but I'm not sure what it's use is in fantasy. My first thought is it might have more relevance to closers.
I remember back when Smoltz was a closer one year he had an awful outing where he gave up numerous runs. OK, I looked it up and it was 2002 and he gave up 8 ER in 0.2 IP which ruined his ERA for the rest of the season. Smoltz finished with a 3.25 ERA that year but if you took out that outing his numbers would look much better. The next year his ERA was 1.12 Could this be something useful for 2nd and 3rd tier closers?
written by kevinorris, January 10, 2009
D Wrek- I completely agree with you. I think CC was helped out in the of the season facing much easier competition than he will in the AL East, but I do believe that as long as a pitcher has his stuff, he can dominate anyone. I attended CC's last game as an Indian (in Minnesota, although he didn't pitch) and then attended his debut. CC brought so much energy to Miller Park that it was rediculous- it's too bad that he left.
Besides the point, I don't really think that it's an amazing theory by any means, but those are a few of the guys I experimented with.
written by D Wrek, January 10, 2009
Kevin, though not an exact science, I definitely think theres something to this.
CC is such a good example, it may be a little extreme. If you take out those 3 or 4 HORRIBLE starts he had at the begining of the season, and take out some of those starts he had at the end when he was an absolute MONSTER, you probably get a better read of who CC really is. Basically he wont be as bad as he showed in the begining, but I think its also safe to say he wont be as good as he was down the stretch. Somewhere in the middle, and this system can help you figure out where that middle may be.
Write comment
Tags: CC Sabathia Matt Garza Tim Lincecum Fantasy Baseball Pitchers FantasyPros911 Baseball Four Start System
|
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
More articles :
sometimes i think ozzie likes to watch him suffer.