Coming down the homestretch, we start looking to next year in the Roundtable. Everyone who knows me knows I have had a man-crush on Ubaldo Jimenez since he came up, and now Adam Ronis, Tim Dierkes and Rob McQuown tackle my prediction that Ubaldo Jimenez will be a top seven fantasy pitcher in 2010. Will I be right?
The Hardball Times: Rob McQuown
 As a snide answer, it would be easy to note that picking any given pitcher to be “top 7” is a fool's errand, just ask Johan Santana and Brandon Webb. But the real question at hand is whether there are 7 pitchers you'd feel more confident about owning entering the 2010 season, considering both ceiling and floor for 2010. It's easy to like a lot of things about Ubaldo. He has an 8.0 K/9, with just 3.4 BB/9. His GB% is over 50%. You top that off with a killer 2nd half so far (just .189/.266/.291 against!), and the Rox efficient-and-improving offense, and there's little doubt that he's going to make some fantasy owner happy in 2010 (if he stays healthy). Having the Padres and Giants in his division is just gravy.
That's the good news. He still hasn't made it into top-7 status, though. Those amazing stats were put up against some very sub-par offenses in the 2nd half, with the punchless Cubs and surprisingly adequate Nats being the two best. Sure, rolling bad offenses doesn't mean he's not good, but a .233 BABIP in the second half has pulled his season BABIP down to .285. His HR/FB rate is just 6.8%, his second season under 7%.
The other aspect is that the top 7 is pretty elite territory. Greinke and King Felix have similarly vaulted forward this season, and – despite the lack of run support – can be expected to exceed him. Lincecum and Haren are golden, having all of health, dominance, and youth going for them. And older “warhorses” like Halladay and now Cliff Lee seem like much more sure things. To assert that Ubaldo will be 7th-best means he then has to top all of “the field” after those 6 are removed: Cain, Wainwright, Carpenter, Verlander, Josh Johnson, Sabathia, Vazquez, Lester, Kershaw, Billingsley, Gallardo, Garza, and even Johan, Peavy, Hamels, and Webb. Others would include names like Edwin Jackson, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jair Jurrjens as well... not to mention the members of the league-leading Texas pitching staff, using “The Ryan Plan” to get and stay strong. While Jimenez may deserve to be on the same tier with these guys, he's more in the middle of that tier now instead of obviously atop it.
Adam Ronis-New York Newsday
You have an excellent chance to be correct. Jimenez has shown more growth this season after finishing his first full season (2008) in the rotation strong. He is among the best in fastball velocity in the majors and has four very good pitches and mixes speeds well. Everything in his profile points to him being one of the top pitchers in fantasy. His K/9 has increased and his BB/9 has decreased from 4.67 to 3.41 and with more growth, that number can dwindle further next season. He induces a lot of ground balls and keeps the ball in the ballpark. He turns 26 in January and should get better. If the Rockies makes the postseason and Jimenez pitches like he has on a national level, then getting good value for him on draft day will be difficult. I still think a lot of people don't realize how good he is and when they see the question, they will laugh it off, but I think it has a great chance of happening.
I set out with the intention of debunking your prediction, just knowing that in the past Jimenez's walks kept his WHIP high. And of course, that he pitches in Coors. But looking more closely at his work this year, especially from May forward when he fixed a mechanical glitch, makes me agree with you. Since May his walk rate is under 3.0 per nine, and he is so tough to hit that a WHIP at 1.20 or better is perfectly reasonable next year. Throw in the fantastic groundball rate and the skills are there for a sub-3.50 ERA in 2010. And that's even factoring in some regression on the hits and home runs. I also like his chances at piling up wins given his average of seven innings per start since May. Jimenez is looking more and more like Brandon Webb did before his injury. And that type of work does crack the top seven. It'll be interesting to see if he's drafted inside the first five rounds.
The obvious caveat is the injury concern that comes with pretty much all pitchers. Jimenez's recent history is quite clean, though he did miss most of 2004 with shoulder/forearm issues. He is currently fifth in all of baseball in number of pitches thrown, and figures to be worked hard down the stretch as the Rockies try to make the playoffs.
Patrick DiCaprio-FantasyPros911.com
The answer: Of course he will! One of the tenets Mike Podhorzer and I strongly argued for at The Fantasy Baseball Generals, my first blog (and yes I have something in my eye) was that you could ignore walks with young, developing pitchers, and that stars would come from the group of pitchers with high K rates and BB rates, ignoring walks. Jimenez was Exhibit A in this theory from day one, and he is on the verge of stardom, though one can reasonably argue he is there already. The reason is that control is the one thing that young pitchers can improve on, but the others are more intrinsic to his skill set.
After a rocky April, Jimenez has become the Rock of Gibraltar on the mound, putting up quality start after quality start. In the second half he has once again dropped his BB rate, now to a manageable 3.3, while increasing his K rate to 8.7, resulting in a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.79 ERA. He has not let up more than four runs in a start since April, nor has he pitched less than six innings in a start since April. Very few pitchers can make this claim.
In terms of abuse he has thrown more than 120 pitches in a start on one occasion, but has thrown between 110 and 120 on eleven occasions. This means that they are purposefully protecting him from that 120 mark. And he did not throw more than 110 pitches until May 17, and that was the only time until June. So they started out the season protecting his arm and letting him build up strength. They have managed him like a potential ace.
At age 25, the best is yet to come and a Cy Young award is not out of the question next year.
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