FREE Fantasy Baseball Guide
Follow FantasyPros911 Here
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Other Articles You Might Like
06 Feb 2009 |
|
Is Alexei Ramirez a high quality Cuban cigar or just a lot of bad smoke? He is currently being drafted, on average, as the 49th overall pick in mock drafts this year.  Last year at this time my FantasyPros911 colleagues Tony Cincotta and Lenny Melnick both podcasted about Alexei and his potential. Our Editor-in-Chief made him his preseason ROY pick. I listened enough to grab him as my last overall pick in many of my leagues and he ended up being very helpful to my fantasy teams batting .290/21/77/65/13 in 480 at bats coming off my fantasy bench in the second half. Oh yeah, he came in second for rookie of the year too!However, my goal for this year when drafting is to pick the best players while not over paying. So does that mean he is worth a pick at the spot he is going (4th-5th round) this year? Let’s look at some of his projections from the sabermetric community: 575AB .289/24/97/88/14 - Chone 412AB .286/17/66/56/12 - Bill James 420AB .286/17/64/58/10 - Marcel 575AB .287/21/80/75/14 - FP911 All these numbers are pretty close. However, are they that much different from what he did last year? It doesn’t look that way to me. That said, for a guy that will have second base and shortstop eligibility less then a month into season, his numbers look good assuming he can get a full season worth of at bats. But is he worth the value? The biggest reason why he is going so early is position scarcity. So that should mean he is better than other guys playing his same position and the positions are not very deep. Here is a Shortstop going 98th overall: .307/14/73/102/14 ( Derek Jeter) There is not enough difference (less power, better average) here to warrant a 4 round difference. Here is second baseman going 168th: .287/18/85/85/5 (Jose Lopez, who maybe a sleeper to watch) Lopez has less stolen bases but they say you pay for steals. Are the steals worth drafting Alexei 100 Spots earlier? Seeing these comparisons makes me think that Alexei is not such a great value pick in the 4th round, as we are hearing on so many of the other expert sites and podcasts. One fantasy sage said Alexei should be going in the second round! My question to him is: where is the value in making a pick like that? So if we are throwing out what we have learned in the past from playing fantasy baseball and you feel confident enough to a) ignore the sabermetric predictions, b) don’t pick for value and c) ignore the possibilities of sophomore declines then go ahead. Alexei is the pick for you. Until then, I will just continue to think the Cuban Missile is just another exploding cigar. Don't agree? Let me know why in the comments below.
Set as favorite
Bookmark
Email this
Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
  written by MikePodhorzer, February 06, 2009
The at-bats from Bill James were a surprise to me as well, but the White Sox and Ozzie Guillen obviously couldn't care less about OBP, so I don't foresee him losing any playing time. I don't think he missed any time to injury, so I can't think of a reason why he wouldn't play a full year and accumulate at least the 575 ABs I projected. On a per-AB basis, I actually expect him to regress, meaning I think he's very overvalued as well.
written by SeanAgranov, February 06, 2009
you guys are shocking me! I really expected to be in the minority when I wrote this and all I have been hearing is how you agree. we must have some pretty smart readers here at 911
 Hmmm..I wonder whom I should try to inflate or deflate next :evil: just don't get me started on Wieters :X
written by big o, February 06, 2009
recently drafted alexei as my SS , in the 6th round (63rd pick).
maybe not ranked higher than drew, but worth more to me than the 35 year old jeter (by a long shot) since this is a full keeper league. mike francesca, while noting jeter's lack of range (and calling him a terrible SS), said he would move him to center field, if he owned the yankees. (and this guy's got his own tv show.) maybe you should change your medium , though i wouldn't emulate greco's style, if i was you .
written by Yogi, February 06, 2009
I'm with you on this one Sean. At the end of last year, I made a mental note, to try and get him for '09. I never dreamed he would have climbed this far that fast. There is no denying his obvious skills, however, for myself, I need a little more than a 4 month track record to make that leap of faith. Thanks for providing the various projections. One thing that jumped out at me, is the low number of at bats that Marcel and BJ have for him. Again, this makes me want to hold off, because we haven't seen enough of him to get a reading on his "health skills". Love to have him on my teams, but I'm afraid the price is a little steep for me this year. Nice article.
Write comment
Tags: Alexei Ramirez Cuban Missile Cuban Missile Crisis Fantasy Baseball Projection Derek Jeter Jose Lopez sabermetric value value picks sleeper draft pick
|
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
More articles :