When did hitting go out of style in the NL West? Pitching may win championships, but only when an offense can provide some support. 

The NL West should be the worst offensive division in baseball in 2009, but how does this impact your 2009 draft strategy?

Best in the West?

Who’s the best hitter in the NL West right now? Here are your candidates:

• Manny Ramirez: Manny and the Dodgers seem fated to stick together, but his fate remains unsettled and he could leave the division even more barren. As a Dodger, Manny represents its strongest offensive force, but his mood swings, age and injury risk could also make him its most infuriating.

• Adrian Gonzalez:  Gonzalez has the talent of an MVP, but hits in a very difficult park and has no one to drive in or protect him. New Orleans had more protection from Hurricane Katrina than Gonzalez has from the 5th hitter in the Padres’ lineup.

• Matt Kemp: Kemp may emerge as the superstar of the NL West, especially if Manny’s protecting him and he continues to develop the power to match his great speed. The sky’s the limit for Kemp, and he no longer appears to be threatened by Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier or Juan Pierre for a starting job.

• Russell Martin: 20/20 catchers don’t grow on trees, but they don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of pitchers either. He’s an extremely valuable player, moreso in real baseball than fantasy in terms of what he brings to a team, but we’re not talking about an elite slugger here.

Who’s left? Garrett Atkins, who’s as much Rockie as trade bait? Rafael Furcal, a speed guy with an iffy back? Chris B. Young and Mark Reynolds, both of whom come with a batting average uncomfortably close to their weight?

Brian Joura predicted that Chris Iannetta would be a first rounder in 2010, but let’s not go anointing him just yet.

Put another way, how many NL West hitters would hold a full-time job on the Yankees or Red Sox?

Offensive Wasteland, Pitcher’s Paradise

After these guys, the talent drop-off is scary. Nowhere else in baseball in 2009 would the likes of Paul McAnulty or Travis Ishikawa contend for a starting job.

The Dodgers appeared anemic before Manny arrived. The Giants plan on fielding a below-league-average player at almost every position on the diamond. The D-Backs and Rockies depend heavily on the development of their young talent, which always carries great risk. The Padres’ idea of offense appears to be bringing Brian Giles back and crossing their fingers that Chase Headley becomes Ryan Braun.

The ballparks don’t do the hitters any favors either. Petco Park has easily been the best pitchers’ park in baseball the past three years. Pac Bell Park and Dodger Stadium suppress home runs for all but the elite sluggers. Coors Field and Chase Field have been the NL’s top hitting environments, but without a true slugger in either park it may only matter to visiting teams.

The Fantasy Spin

So what does this mean on Draft Day?  If these teams aren’t going to hit, how should that information change the way you construct your fantasy squad?

Pitchers: Pitching rules this division. Look for the likes of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Chris Young to  dominate against their rivals’ milquetoast lineups. With these teams playing each other a lot, expect a lot of 2-1 ballgames.  All NL West pitchers, starters and closers, deserve a slight bump up in your draft rankings, and the division could be a fertile ground for cheap sleepers.

Hitters: Unless the division gets Manny, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell (and loses Andruw Jones in addition by subtraction), the good hitters will be few and far between.  Opportunities still exist, though, so don’t completely write off the division. The NL West still holds some cheap sleeper opportunities, as players like Pablo Sandoval, Conor Jackson, Chase Headley and Ian Stewart should offer great value as they slip in drafts.

Speedsters: Speed guys may thrive in this environment of run manufacturing.  Without consistent run producers, managers may have to resort to NL-style small ball more often. Look for players like Emmanuel Burris, Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal to offer good value, and be on the lookout for cheap speed on the waiver wire.

Is there an emerging offensive force I’ve forgotten about here? Is the NL West really going to be as offense-starved as it currently looks?

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (3)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by Mike Clarke, January 05, 2009

Keep in mind that Broxton is one the few relief pitchers who contribute a decent amount in strikeouts.

Broxton strikes out more batters each year than Jon Garland who is a starting pitcher...

Many of those blown saves last year were before he was the closer. He was I believe 14 of 17 in Save chances down the stretch as the closer.

The kid is a beast. I would not overpay for him, but I would value him as a top ten closer...

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by GabrielLundeen, January 04, 2009

Great point, Lenny. Broxton also blew 8 saves last year, so even though he throws hard and strikes a ton of batters out, he still hasn't really proven himself as closer material. He should get a shot, though, and people will keep drafting him way too early..

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by lennymelnick, January 04, 2009

Broxton is NOT a lock to close for Dodgers Hong-Chih Kuo may get a good look.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview