From nearly the moment he took over for an aging Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson has held a preseason fantasy ranking in the top 10. Every year, Jackson is rated very highly - often in the top three. It is a spot usually reserved for the steadiest of hands, the uber-studs who dominate Fantasy Football every year.

Even now, there are multiple rankings you can find where he is a top five - even a top three - Fantasy pick. The question you have to ask is: does he deserve it or is Steven Jackson one of the greatest Fantasy Football Illusions of all time?

How can I possibly ask that question?

Forget the rankings, forget what you think know - and let's take a hard look at the facts.

1) I'm not the first to point it out, but let me be the latest - Steven Jackson has rarely been a Fantasy Stud Running Back.

Now before you pick up your pitchforks and light your torches to run the scasry monster out of town, let's put aside perception and talk reality.  The reality is, Jackson has finished a whopping ONCE inside the Top 10 of Fantasy Running Backs. That is right - not once as the No. 1 back. Not once in the top five. Once in the top 10!

Sidebar: That year - 2006 - he finished as the No. 3 back in many leagues. But as he couldn't crack the top 10 the other four years, that is more telling than one very high finish.

 So now, the question begs to be asked: Why? That brings us to our next point.

2) Steven Jackson has not been able to stay healthy. There are a lot of explanations - and in some cases excuses - for why that is. But looking over his seasons, and discounting his rookie season, in which he was still a backup to Faulk and therefore not a starter nor present in every game until he proved himself, he has only completed a full season once.

Guess which season that was?

Jackson has been continually banged up or hurt and missed games nearly every season of his short, though productive, career. Sometimes he is his own worst enemy. Last season he held out for much of Training Camp, hurting his overall preparation and possibly leading to injuries that caused him to miss several games throughout the season. 

Jackson will not be missing Training Camp this year, so hopefully that will not be a contributing factor to his overall ability to stay healthy. But I ask you this:

If his name wasn't Steven Jackson, would you draft him in the top round given you know he's likely to miss at least a pair of games?

3) This reason carries more weight in Point Per Reception Leagues (aka PPR), but is still a factor in standard leagues as well.  Despite what some say, Jackson does not catch the ball a tremendous amount.

He does end up with plenty of catches, no doubt but compared to other bona-fide PPR studs? Nope.

This does not negate the possibility of being a top Fantasy RB. Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner are both considered high picks and neither of them catches the ball a tremendous amount. In fact, Turner almost never gets the rock thrown his way.

The trick is that both backs make up for it on the ground and both rolled up 1600+ yards last year. Jackson has consistently hovered around 1,000 yards for his whole career, save for one season which was - once again you guessed it - 2006.

He got 90 catches in 2006, by the way.  That is rare for a running back and those 90 points have resonated in the minds of owners ever since, along with his 800 yards.

Excuding the rookie season, his total catches for the other seasons were 43, 38 and 40. His yard totals were 320, 271 and last year a very nice 379. But nowhere near the numbers which inflated his output in 2006.

Steven Jackson has spent years in many minds as a perennial preseason top five pick solely because he had one good season. People aren't giving DeAngelo Williams that kind of latitude and his 2008 was nearly as good as Jackson's 2006, save for a ton less receiving yards which, again, will probably never be repeated.

A top pick is supposed to be a solid, reliable player who will - barring unforseen injury - center your team with great production each week. Yet Jackson consistently puts up numbers that rank him as a Top 15 back and often place him among other backs who were - at best - second round picks.

Steven Jackson is a solid back to be sure, and one who has shown flashes of studlike brilliance. But in the end, his stats over the course of his career do not support his continual inclusion in the top ranks of Fantasy drafts.

Perhaps this will be the season he puts it all back together. But can you afford to risk another decent, but not quite marquee season while taking him at the top half of a fantasy draft?

Remember the facts, and see Jackson for what he is - a solid back with a great deal of upside - and not the illusion of a top five pick.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (5)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by REDRUM, July 02, 2009

100+ yard games in 7 out of 11 games played... and that was with 2008 being a complete disaster for him... Im just saaaaayin'

Is their risk with SJAX?? You better belive it!!!
Does any bring as much "reward factor" to them? Not really, maybe equally but not more than him.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Too inconsistent.
written by Antonino Buccellato, July 02, 2009

In 2008, Jackson actually had 1,422 total yards for an average of 118.5 a game, and eight TDs. While those numbers look better than Turner's, and the other five players you mentioned, on the surface, the problem with Jackson was consistency.

In the early going he only played two monster games, in weeks 4 and 7, against Dallas and Buffalo. In those games he combined for 364 total yards and four TDs (3 vs. Dallas alone) accounting for 54 FPTS in basic scoring leagues.

He never scored again until week 15 on the ground while he scored his lone receiving TD in week 14.

He had his best games of the season when it may have been too late for fantasy owners: from week 15 to 17. In that three-game span he accumulated a spectacular 461 total yards (120 YPG) and three TDs for an estimated 64 FPTS.

Again, unless you play in a rare 17-week fantasy league, his late efforts may have not been useful for most owners.

In the five good games he played last season he combined for 118 FPTS (23.6 avg).
In the remaining seven games (72 points) he averaged a mortal 10.2 points. Unfortunately, those seven games were the most crucial to any team hoping to make the playoffs after investing a high pick on him.

He has only played a full season once during his five-year career and that alone should place him outside the top 10.

However, with the drafting of Jason Smith, his O-line should be improved this year. Only concern is if he can stay healthy.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by REDRUM, July 02, 2009

I said 5 not including the BYE but I did include the Cincy game where he wasnt the field for I wanna say more than 10 snaps...

But I think you have a valid point on SJAX.. Hes a very scary player to take... But I can only speak for myself and say that I have completley forgotten what he did in 2006. What I do focus on is how he produces when he does actually play. I play in a lot of high Stakes leagues and to be honest I play the same way in local leagues as well.. Shoot for the stars!! thats my style and I have to say i think his Ceiling is just about as high as it gets... Everyone has there own style.. I will say this he isn't the safest pick on the board to say the least... Excellent article BTW

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by AGarda, July 02, 2009

Four games missed (can't count the bye week as a missed game), but why quibble? I see your point and it's valid (although my math had it at closer to 102 ypg) but my response is - will he finish a season? He just doesn't, can't seem to. OK, write last year off as a bad idea - never should have held out, git him hurt. What about 2007?

Now in this year - when there is so much chaos in the front of the draft - you're as likely to get productiion out of him as anyone else (Forte, MJD, LT) who gets drafted around or in front of him. You sure could make the #2 arguement - as you could for half the backs populating the top 10. YOu can also poke holes in them all.

If he were another back NOT named Jackson would he get the slack he does? I'm just wondering out loud - has one fantabulous season blinded us (or many) to the risks with him?

He's living (fantasy-wise) off of one year. The other three he finished 11th, 14th and 13th. You could play 'he coulda/shoulda' but he didn't and hasn't. Until he can finish a season all those seasons that are very good considering become unfulfilled possibilities and don't win you a championship. That production as a late 1st or a #2? Just might.


I've really been back and forth on him all summer so far. So much potential. So much risk.

Appreciate the comment redrum - good stuff and food for thought. Jackson is an interesting back for sure.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by REDRUM, July 02, 2009

In a terrible year last season for SJAX..

- 1207 Total Yards missing 5 games....
- 119 yards a game average
- 17+ points per game average (putting him ahead of Gore, Turner, Bush, Slaton, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson)

I can honestly make a valid argument that SJAX is the #2 RB although I feel more comfortable taking him around #4 or beyond of course. With SJAX the injuries are scary but you know what ? An injury can occur at anytime to anyone. SJax has to me the highest ceiling right now and guess what he's ONLY 25 (for some reason he seems older, eh?)...

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Write the displayed characters

Add Comment Preview