With the exception of the Detroit Tigers, each American League Central team features a primary closer that saved 30 games last year. However as a whole, the Central was a disappointment last season. No team won 90 games and the Indians and Tigers regressed from their 2007 seasons. Yet, this division has the potential to produce a lot of wins and save opportunities in 2009 with big expectations again.
Chicago White Sox
- The Incumbent: Bobby Jenks
- Likelihood to hold job:
- How they did last year: 3-1, 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 SV, 38 K/ 17 BB
- What to expect this year: Even when Jenks struck out 80 in 2006, he walked 31 and only yielded a 2.58 K/BB. Jenks has tremendously improved his control over the past two seasons—his BB/9 was 4.00 in 2006, but 1.80 in 2007 and 2.48 in 2008. Jenks pitched better than his FIP last year of 3.41, which was the highest of his career. Expect Jenks to improve his strikeout total of last season and post numbers more in line with his 2007 season (3-5, 2.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 56 K/13 BB).
- In the ‘Pen: Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink
Octavio Dotel: An erratic history of injuries and success, Dotel would serve as the next best option if something were to happen to Jenks. Prior to last season, Dotel had not appeared in more than 25 games in a season since 2004. That season was arguably Dotel’s best, when he saved a combined 36 games for the Astros and Athletics. Dotel has 83 career saves, and went 4-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 72 games for the White Sox last year.
Scott Linebrink: A career setup man, Linebrink has five career saves. It’s very doubtful it would get to this point, but Linebrink is out in the ‘pen.
Cleveland Indians
- The Incumbent: Kerry Wood
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Likelihood to hold job:
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How they did last year: 5-4, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34 SV, 84 K/18 BB
In his first season as a closer, Wood exceeded expectations in two aspects—posting solid numbers and staying healthy. In fact, Wood was even better than his numbers. Wood had a 2.32 FIP and allowed a .331 BABIP. Wood’s 4.67 K/BB was good for fourth and an 11.40 K/9 was ranked third, both among closers. In addition to the great numbers, Wood managed to last the duration of an entire season.
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What to expect this year: Health is obviously a concern, and also a switch to the American League should be considered. However, Wood’s numbers should not be too adversely affected by the switch. In terms of health, the one thing no one can predict is injury. When drafting Wood you certainly inherit the risk of injury, but you do so with a lot of other players. Expect stellar numbers again from Wood, and possibly more save opportunities with a revamped Indians team.
- In the ‘Pen: Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis: Prior to the signing of free agent Wood, Lewis was in line to take over as the Indians’ closer. At the end of last year, Lewis was the closer and pitched very well. Lewis nailed down 13 saves, and his only blown save came in April as a setup man. Wood should not struggle enough to be yanked but if an injury crops up, Lewis would be the next best thing, and definitely worth an add in most formats.
Rafael Perez: Only three career saves, Perez is a setup man. But then again, the way the Indians bullpen came apart at the seams last year; it is hard to rule out anything.
Detroit Tigers
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The Incumbent: Fernando Rodney
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Likelihood to hold job:
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How they did last year: 0-6, 4.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 13 SV, 49 K/ 30 BB
Sorry, the numbers are as bad they seem. Rodney had a knack for handing out free passes in abundance at the end of the game. Clearly, Rodney can really rear back and throw absolute gas, but unlike the successful closers with good fastballs, he often has trouble controlling it. Rodney had a 4.12 FIP and allowed a .324 BABIP, but the walks were really the main reason for such poor numbers across the board.
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What to expect this year: It is hard to expect much, if anything, from Rodney. It is his job to lose in Spring Training, but with the return of Joel Zumaya, it is very possible. Unless Rodney can figure out how to throw that fastball for a strike or take something off to help control it, it could be a short tenure as the team closer this year. Expect Rodney to return to his old role as setup man.
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In the ‘Pen: Joel Zumaya
Joel Zumaya: As of right now he is not listed as the Tigers closer, but expect him to take the job. In 2006, Zumaya had fantasy owners salivating over his electric stuff. That year, he struck out 97 and posted a 1.94 ERA. Like Rodney, Zumaya has a fastball that can hit triple digits on the radar gun. He, too, has control issues—22 walks in 23 1/3 innings last year—and also has not stayed healthy the past two seasons. If he wins the job and if (huge one) he can stay healthy, Zumaya could be a solid late-round pickup.
**There should be a side note for the Tigers, as this bullpen will most likely take shape over the coming weeks. Because it is still only the second week of January, there is still a long time for free agent addition. Other candidates may be Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, both of which pitched for the Diamondbacks last year who are not currently candidates in the Detroit 'pen. A Detroit News story acknowledges the current bullpen concerns. Lenny Melnick even suggests the possibility of moving Jeremy Bonderman into the closer role, here. There is also the potential for a closer-by-committee in Detorit. As we move closer towards Spring Training, we will take a closer look at this team's situation.
Kansas City Royals
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The Incumbent: Joakim Soria
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Likelihood to hold job:
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How they did last year: 2-3, 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 42 SV, 66 K/19 BB
The Mexicutioner inserted himself as one of the more reliable closers in the game last year. Soria might have had a bit of luck on his side, pitching much better than his FIP (3.25) and a .215 BABIP. Regardless, Soria’s numbers last year were almost identical to a season earlier in 2007. Soria averaged just under a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.47 K/BB last season, nearly mirroring 2007 where he averaged just over a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.95 K/BB. It is also fortunate that Soria saved 42 games for a team that only won 75.
- What to expect this year: It will only be his third full season, but Soria really has been a model of consistency over the past two seasons. That aside, he has pitched better than his FIP the last two years, so there is reason to believe there will be a bump in his ERA and WHIP next year. Expect an ERA around 2.00, WHIP around 1.00 and his strikeout rates to remain the same as the past two years. Plus, he looks fit for a movie (see right).
- In the ‘Pen: Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Mahay
Kyle Farnsworth: Well, things did not pan out with the Yankees but it is another new place for Farnsworth—actually his sixth stop. His track record is very inconsistent but his best season actually came as the closer for the Braves and Tigers in 2005. However, Soria would have to struggle mightily or get hurt for Farnsworth to return to his closing days.
Ron Mahay: Only four career saves and turning 38 this year, but a candidate in the bullpen were something to happen to Soria.
Minnesota Twins
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The Incumbent: Joe Nathan
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Likelihood to hold job:
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How they did last year: 1-2, 1.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 39 SV, 74 K/ 18 BB
Nathan pretty much solidified his spot as a top five closer last year, if he hadn’t already. For a fifth straight year, Nathan notched at least 35 saves in 2008 and posted career bests in ERA and WHIP. However, Nathan’s strikeout numbers have slightly dipped over the past two seasons. He struck out 77 in 2007 and 74 in 2008, yielding a K/9 of 9.67 and 9.84, respectively. In addition, Nathan pitched to more than half his FIP that was 2.79. Nathan also had a BABIP of .245, the lowest rate since 2003. Both numbers might suggest why his ERA and WHIP were better than any other year in his career. One last note on last year was Nathan had six blown saves, the most of his career.
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What to expect this year: Nathan has not showed any sign of slowing down over the last few seasons. Throw out the small decrease in strikeout numbers and a handful of blown saves, and you still have lights out Joe Nathan. He did pitch with some luck last year so look for his ERA and WHIP to increase a little bit, but expecting a sub-2.00 ERA and 40 saves is very much realistic.
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In the ‘Pen: Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Philip Humber
Jesse Crain: A lifetime setup man, Crain is an option only if Nathan gets hurt. Crain has two career saves.
Matt Guerrier: Ditto on what was said of Crain. Guerrier has made a handful of starts but has mostly worked out of the bullpen as a middle reliever. Guerrier has three career saves.
Philip Humber: Humber is more of a candidate for the future. Nathan is linked with the Twins through 2011 and has a team-option in 2012, though. Humber came over from the Mets in the Santana trade last year. In many ways he is like Nathan, but a definite long shot and only an option this season if Nathan were to go down to injury.
Even before we dive into the rest of the American League and take a look at the National League, this division clearly has a lot of depth at the position. Four of the primary closers could potentially reach 40 saves this season. Who are you most comfortable drafting, and what round are you comfortable drafting them in?
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