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26
Dec
2008
Sidewalk Money and Hot Potatoes 12/26/08 PDF  | Print |  E-mail
MLB Players To Watch
Written by Chuck Anderson   
Once we get into the season this space will be reserved for analysis of the most added and dropped players for the week.  Until then we will feature players that owners struck gold with off the waiver wire in 2008.  Why were they not drafted highly in the first place?  What can we learn so we don't overlook future "buried treasure"? Nate McLouth 
2008 ADP:  245

Why was he available?
Despite graduating from the minors after the 2005 season, McLouth was not a full time player in 2006 (270 AB) or 2007 (329 AB).  The gap between his callup and ascention to full-time player dulled the memories of prospect watchers.  Many likely forgot he was Baseball America's #6 rated Pirates prospect headed into 2006.  By the beginning of the 2008 season the hot Pittsburgh outfield prospects were Andrew McCutchen and Steven Pearce.  He was also believed to be in competition with Chris Duffy and Nyjer Morgan for playing time.  Duffy and Morgan were attractive to fantasy owners in the late rounds because they had good speed.  The Duffy train was de-railed early, he never played for the Pirates in 2008.  By April 10 it was clear that McLouth was starting every day.   McLouth was passed over because he did not have a standout skill that was projected to help fantasy teams.

What did we miss? 
In many statistical categories McLouth made a greater improvement between 2006 and 2007 than between 2007 and 2008.  His OBP jumped from .293 to .351.  His SLG went from .385 to .459.  Looking deeper, his FB% rose from 35.4 to 52.8.  Had you not looked at the stats at all, there was still another clue that McLouth would become valuable in 2008.  His Pittsburgh teammates overwhelmingly thought he would have a breakthrough season.  I hope every team releases a poll like this in 2009, I know I'll be reading.

Lessons Learned
1) Big league managers tend to play the best overall player, not the one with the most enticing fantasy skill set.
2) Look at the stats, but also listen to the "buzz" around players from people observing them.

 

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