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03 Mar 2009 |
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| Everyone knows Nate McLouth is the top fantasy choice in the Pittsburgh outfield. However, he probably will not be the “best value” pick from the Pirates outfield in your draft. Let us take a closer look.
McLouth will be the starting centerfielder for the Pirates. He is projected with stats in the neighborhood of .280/25/85/105/25. However, his ADP is around #56, and I have seen him going as early as the third round. I think those projections are a little high considering there is not a Jason Bay in the lineup anymore, which means McLouth will not be protected from opposing pitchers. Center field also is the most physical position the outfield. So it will continue to wear on him. There are five players that are being projected to play alongside McLouth. They are Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce, Andrew McCutchen and the recently-signed Eric Hinske. Two of these players will start the season but do not be very surprised if the two others are playing by the end the season In left field, Morgan is a speed guy, and many people are starting to add him to their sleeper lists. He is best compared to Juan Pierre. He will hit for a good average and get plenty of steals as long as he gets the playing time. In right field, Moss is another young player who has the tools to put together a .285 average and peak around 20 home runs. However, he could just as easily struggle and bat a mediocre .260 with 10 homers. Pearce will battle both Morgan and Moss. Pearce has more of a power stroke. He could end up creating a power vs. speed platoon with Morgan. If he gets off to a hot start and either Moss or Morgan struggles, he could very easily replace one of them on a more permanent basis. Another bat in the mix is that of the 31-year-old Hinske, who has spent his entire seven-year career in the American League, including with the league-champion Rays in 2008. Last season he hit .247 with 60 RBIs and showed some power with 20 home runs. He was brought to Pittsburgh to be an extra outfielder and third baseman. Beware--he is already banged up from running into an outfield wall last week, suffering a contusion near his rib cage. McCutchen has the most potential to be a star. At just 22, he has made his way up through the minors pretty quickly. Recently, Kyle Stark, Pirates Director of Player Development, said this about McCutchen on a Baseball Prospectus podcast: “When he goes to the big leagues, it’s gonna be for good." There really is nothing much for him to prove in the minors, after he spent all of 2008 in Triple-A Indianapolis, posting .283/9/50/75/34 and improving his batting eye. So when he gets called up it will be as a starter, but I would not be surprised to see the Pirates wait until May or June to make sure he gets off to a good start in Triple-A before they call him up to replace McLouth in center (McLouth will then move to either right or left, wherever the Pirates feel he makes the better replacement). McCutchen hits consistently but has not yet developed his power stroke--give it time. He will be great for steals and a great grab for those in keeper leagues. All these outfielders have a shot for making a great impact for the Pirates. Guys like Morgan and McCutchen can be true steals for your fantasy teams. Pearce and Moss were both being highly touted only a few short years ago, as well. Unfortunately there is no definitive choice here among them. The outcome will all depend on playing time and the ability to hold down the job once or if they are given it. If you guess right, you have a great value pick for your fantasy team.
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Tags: Nate McLouth Nyjer Morgan Andrew McCutchen Steve Pearce Brandon Moss Juan Pierre Jason Bay Pittsburgh Pirates outfield
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