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“Stand up, raise your left hand, turn counter-clockwise and repeat after me: A ROOKIE IS A ROOKIE IS A ROOKIE”, Lenny Melnick says again at 4:00 am this morning. In fantasy baseball, you don’t want rookies on your team. If you have two or more rookies on your team, you just won’t win your league, period. Believe me; I know this for certain, because I’m that guy. I’m the one that always gets fascinated with the new or up and coming player. I’m the guy that drafted Tommy Hanson, Max Scherzer and Matt Wieters this year. I quickly picked up Dexter Fowler and J.A. Happ off the waiver wire. It’s an addiction I cannot shake. I think part of it is an underlying ego adulation that makes me feel like I’ve done better, more in-depth research and scouting than the rest of the league. The unfortunate part is that then there is a lingering emotional attachment to these players that cant’ be dislodged until it is too late. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying to avoid all rookies, but don’t expect them to dominant. More importantly, don’t expect that they can carry your fantasy baseball team. So, this article is about “The Next Big Thing” or “The Up and Comer”. Rather than pick a player that has recently been promoted (or soon to be), in this article I’m going to look at a player in AAA that is not been called up yet. It would be too easy to write an article on the positive aspects of Hanson, Wieters, Fowler and Rick Porcello. Instead, I’m going to talk about a pitcher that is still in the minors. Everyone that knows me knows that I prefer Scouting over Sabermetrics. In this case, I have to go more by “the numbers”, because I haven’t seen him pitch yet. In general, here are the things I typically look for when scouting a pitcher: · Speed (i.e.: Radar Love) · Do they throw strikes? · Durability · Mechanics · Mental make-up - - how do they do with runners on base on behind in the score? · How many pitches in the repertoire - - Need at least 3 with command On the numbers side, I look for: · Strike out rates - - K/9 ratio, K/W ratio So, the guy I love is Tommy Hanson. I just love this guy. I think he is going to be a great, dominant pitcher. WAIT, wait, wait - - rewind the tape. I said that I wasn’t going to take the easy pick. Ready, TAKE TWO. The guy I love is Chris Tillman in the Orioles organization. Tillman is a right hander who can hit the mid-90’s on his fastball and throws strikes. Along with his fastball, he also displays a curve and changeup. So far this year he has a 48K/13BB ratio and a 1.88 ERA. No need to worry about the recent thigh/groin issue, he was pulled from his start more precautionary than anything. His arm is 100%, so with the recent Baltimore additions, expect a call up in the next few weeks. Since I submitted this article on Sunday, I don’t know what happened in Tommy Hanson’s first start. Regardless - - Pick UP this guy. He’s the real deal. Spend all you FAB to get him - especially in keeper leagues. Oh, did I mention I drafted him? Did I mention I love rookies? Did I mention that Tommy Hanson is 22 years old, 6’6” 220 pounds with a 95 mph fastball, a slider, curve and changeup? He throws strikes and is hard to hit. This is your rookie of the year for 2009. He will be a perennial All-Star. Ready, TAKE THREE. Trackback(0)
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the problem with scouting criteria is that unless you are trained in scouting you cannot ascertain these things no matter how much you watch on TV. and how often can you see a given minor leaguer?
if you are reading about the guy and going by that, then that is fair but i don't see why you should not look at the skills.