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16 Jan 2009 |
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| Many of us play Fantasy Baseball so we can feel like being part of the American pastime. We set up our teams and our leagues and use draft real players and emulate their on field feats, both good and bad, into our teams the best we can through use of statistics. The main statistic we use to add the use of relief pitchers into our game is Saves. Is that really the best statistic to use?
Saves in the game A Save is a statistic credited to a relief pitcher, as set forth in Rule 10.19 of the Rules of Baseball, when a pitcher meets all of the following conditions: 1. He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team 2. He is not the winning pitcher 3. He satisfies one of the following conditions: a. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning.
b. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck c. He pitches for at least three innings  I recently read an excellent article by Rich Lederer entitled “We Shall Not be Saved” in the Hardball Times Annual for 2009. In it, he detailed the history of the save and gave statistical analysis to summarize how over time the use of closers has changed. He goes as far as saying how closers are even being used less effectively in today's game, as closers today are only coming into the game when a save opportunity is greatest and not when he can help his team most effectively. Two quotes he used from Bill James on the most effective way to use a closer sum it up best: "Each run saved in a tie game has eight times the impact of a run saved with a three-run lead. If you use your relief ace to save a three run lead in the ninth inning, you'll win the game 99% of the time. If you don't use your ace in that, you'll win 98% of the time” “Bring in your man when you're ahead by one after seven innings, when you're tied after seven innings or when the game is close and the relief ace isn't tired” I don't doubt Rich or Bill James on there opinion or the statistics that back them up, but the way the pitchers are being used today versus the days of Goose Gossage make the save much easier to obtain. To digress, there has been much debate over the correct way to use a relief pitcher over time and I am sure that debate will continue going forward. Saves in your fantasy team In our fantasy teams we generally draft 2-3 quality closers to get as many saves as possible. A quality closer will come in and get a few strikeouts at the end of the game and gives us a reason to care that Brian Wilson and George Sherrill are closing games 3000 miles apart on the same night. The pursuit of closers in our drafts and during the season is all about the getting the save. There is no sane reason owners would have Todd Jones on their teams the last few years if it wasn’t for the save. Many of the Pros here at FantasyPros911.com and other expert sites have been telling us that closers should not be drafted early. This opinion is based mostly on the fact that a closer pitcher is only helpful in one category (saves) in your standard 5x5 Rotisserie League. A good relief pitcher, such as Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriquez, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, and Joakim Soria, that may seem worthy of drafting in the early rounds might get a good amount of saves but it will not get you close to the equivalent innings to influence your ERA or WHIP like a quality starting pitcher. That and the fact that the overall turnover rate for closers in MLB has been in the 60% range make it very difficult to guarantee you are drafting a safe closer. The argument is that you should wait until near the end of your draft and pick up your closers and the monitor the waiver wire effectively to get a few closers as they turnover during the year. The Future Why do really care so much about the save? If the experts are saying saves are not important enough to draft early for our teams then why are we using them at all? We play this game to emulate and help us enjoy the game of baseball. The save as a statistic was set up to measure the effectiveness of a reliever, so if it's not doing so then let us use something else. Over the last few years many of my leagues have been 6x6 leagues with the standard 5x5 stats and then with an additional hitting category and holds as the additional pitching category. Holds are a great way to try to capture the middle reliever in today's game but like the save statistic it's not really ideal, as the leaders don’t normally get enough innings to help in other categories. Earlier this week Cory Schwartz, MLB Director of Stats, appeared on a FantasyPros911.com podcast [ click here to listen] hosted by Tony Cincotta and  Gabriel Lundeen. Cory answered the question that if he was commissioner for a day and could make one rules change he would change the save rule to eliminate the finishing pitcher requirement. He continued saying that it would allow better relief pitchers to be used earlier in the game. This is exactly more of the manner supported by Bill James. Maybe this is the solution or maybe we need a new stat all together. Unfortunately I don't know the answer. Can anyone develop a stat that will allow the middle reliever and closer to be associated into our fantasy roster? One thought I had was a combination of inherited runners scored and/or advanced, and some sort of metric of innings pitched vs. appearances in game their team win, but hey, I am not really a stat guy. Got a solution? If so I would love to hear it! In the meantime, check out the FantasyPros911.com Draft Guide cause you will need to pick a closer at some point to get saves this season.
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Comments (12)
  written by Jimmy Ray, January 20, 2009
I saw an interview a couple years ago with John hiller the former tiger RP. He played during the change of how bullpen guys were used. He pitched from 65- 80. Look at his best year 74. His record, 17-14 with 13 saves and 52 games finished. he pitched 150 innings with a 2.64 era and appeared in 59 games all in relief, Awesome!! He said in the interview how he was asked to finish games mostly when the 4th or 5th SP were pitching. sometimes 4 innings at a time. I would love to a have guy like that on my fantasy team. I think there are some team changing their bullpen a bit and using better pitchers in the 7th and 8th innings. Last season some starters where also used between starts. I think before long some teams will use 6 SP and have guys pitch out of the pen between starts...that would be great for fantasy baseball as well
written by sean, January 17, 2009
thats my point exactly. wish we could come up with a better way for roto.
written by big o, January 16, 2009
joe :
my calculations may be off here, but it appears as if you used 43.03 square centimeters of space to make your point. deducting sean's reply (xSAR) and multiplying this number by your average comment appearances (JLACA) .....
written by D Wrek, January 16, 2009
Support!!!
Look how many people still judge great defense by Gold Gloves. People will argue to their death that Jeter is a great defensive SS. Until these cavemen sports writers become extinct I wouldnt expect the mainstream to adopt the new defensive metrics.
written by D Wrek, January 16, 2009
The more I play in sim leagues, the more I get frustrated with saves in roto. As you touched on, there are some crappy players compiling saves.
In a sim league though, you select the best relievers, not a "a guy who pitches in the 9th". It feels much more challenging and rewarding when your trying to find the best relief pitchers.
written by tonycincotta, January 16, 2009
"The mainstream has really taken on to the plus/minus
aspect of Dewan's Fielding Bible stats." Define " The mainstream" If I go to the sports bar,The Supermarket, Wal- Mart listen to the Fantasy Face Off, read Adam Ronis of Newsday, Matthew Berry of www.ESPN.com. I never once hear discussions on the fielding bible stats. So where do I go to get into this passionate baseball discussion? Do you hang out in Steve Phillips basement ?
written by BrianJoura, January 16, 2009
I think a better addition to fantasy baseball would be the inclusion of defensive stats in order to give a better understanding of how important defense is in winning games.
The mainstream has really taken on to the plus/minus aspect of Dewan's Fielding Bible stats. Of course the big thing is getting those defensive stats to the companies that do fantasy stats so that they can be included.
written by SeanAgranov, January 16, 2009
wow, I am really surprised that you take the viewpoint "It ain't broke" so why fix it. I really think there is a problem here i just don't the solution.
written by JoeLano, January 16, 2009
As the MLB game stand now, we know what a save is. We use this stat in our fantasy leagues and need our teams to get at least 90 saves to compete.
So I try to draft 3 closers on draft day, with at least one of the top guys to add some stability in the saves department. I don't want to see any "sort of metric" stat get involved. There is no need to make up some new stat.
written by SeanAgranov, January 16, 2009
Thanks for the "close" compliment. Biggest problem about this type of article is you really could write or discuss forever, especially cause we have no right answer. I really wish there was was some sort of statistic that covered both the middle reliever and the Closer on more level ground with a starter pitcher. but then again maybe they shouldn't be cause the starter is more important to a real team then the reliever. Problem is you wont win without both of them being good.
written by big o, January 16, 2009
nice "close" on this article, sean, getting readers to tie into the guide.
my problem with the holds category is that the requirements are too lenient. often more than one pitcher (for one or both teams) will record a "hold". when drafting for holds, focus on pitchers who specialize in facing just on batter/game , as the determining factor is one out.
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