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03
Jan
2009
Ryan Dempster--One and Done? PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Chris Mulligan's Pitch or Ditch
Written by Christopher Mulligan   
There is no better way to start off my weekly Pitch or Ditch column at FantasyPros911.com than to analyze one of the more controversial starting pitchers heading into the ‘09 season…Ryan Dempster. Many people think that Dempster’s ‘08 season was a fluke and that he can’t or won’t come close to repeating those numbers. It is unlikely that he would have a repeat next season because history tells us so.

History

 Dempster had 206 IP last season. The last time he went 200+ IP was back in ‘02 when he pitched for the Marlins and the Reds, granting that he was a reliever for a few years. He had not had a quality season as a starter since ‘00 when he went 14-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 209 K. Then, at age 31 he had a career year after going five years between starts. Knowing this naturally raises many doubts amongst the fantasy baseball world. There is also the case of his past arm problems. Dempster underwent Tommy John surgery in ‘03 but made a quick recovery, taking less than a year to return. With Tommy John surgery pitchers generally come back strong or are never the same again. He has come back strong so we have few worries here.

2008 Season

People are always going to have doubts about Dempster but by any yardstick 2008 was a great season. He posted career highs in Wins (17), ERA (2.97) and WHIP (1.21), and had the best BB/9 of his career (3.31). In many leagues he was among the top ten most valuable pitchers for ‘08 and the lucky owners that got their hands on him reaped the benefits. 

Dempster also had some incredible peripheral numbers. He allowed only 14 HR last season, good for a 0.61 HR/G. He only gave up 174 hits in his 206 IP for a BAA of .230 and an OBPA of only .300. He even had more strikeouts than hits allowed, which is somewhat of a rarity.  We all know that he got 14 of his 17 wins at Wrigley Field but he was just as good, if not better, on the road. In 77 IP on the road he had an ERA of 3.13 and 65 K. He also held opponents to a lower BA on the road (.223) and had a better walk rate as well. However, only 3 of his 14 wins came away from Wrigley Field. People are easily misled by the gaudy win total at home and do not realize how good he was on the road.

Final Analysis and ‘09 Projection

Dempster didn’t have just great numbers last year. His stuff was just as good. His fastball was consistently between 93-96 MPH all year and his and his splitter was, at times, untouchable. Dempster also displayed a quality slider and changeup and pitched with supreme confidence.ere is no doubt that his stuff is well above average but he must maintain that level of confidence throughout the ‘09 season if he is to pitch as well as he did last year. He has found comfort playing with the Cubs, who will be contenders again in 2009.  However, there is typically some uneasiness when selecting a player who just signed a big deal in the off-season. There are so many cases of players signing the biggest contract of their careers only to feel pressure.

When faced with Dempster’s rocky history and how he came out of nowhere to become one of the best pitchers in ‘08, it’s reasonable to be skeptical.  However, we can’t base our opinions on his history alone. We have to leave room to project into the future based upon the most recent data, which shows that Dempster had just about as good of a season last year that we can ask from a starting pitcher.

As we sit today, Dempster looks to be a very good value pick in ‘09 drafts. In some mock drafts he is falling as far as the 16th round and is rarely drafted before the 13th round. If this trend continues as we get closer to real drafts, Dempster could be one of the best values that you will find. We are not saying that he will repeat his numbers from last season or that he will even improve on them, as we expect some regression in ERA and WHIP but nothing significant. The strikeouts will be there again in ’09 and if he can get more run support on the road it will help solidify his win total.

The bottom line is that Ryan Dempster is not a “one and done” pitcher.

What do you think of Dempster? Can he equal his numbers from last year or is he a guy that will fail in 2009? Let me know your thoughts in the Comments.

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written by TroyPatterson, January 10, 2009
His BABIP was actually .288. His luck against FIP came from a 76.7% LOB rate. This is repeatable, but has been up and down all of his career.

I think the ERA ends up closer to 4.00. His FIP is based on a lower HR/FB than league average. An extra few homers raises the FIP to near 4 and even if he beats it with a higher LOB% he is still not below 3.50.
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written by Chris Mulligan, January 10, 2009
Rob,

You make some very valid points. It will be difficult for Dempster to give up as few BB and H that he did last year.

However, I'm not saying that he will be among the elite starters like he was last year. I think he will have a slightly lower ERA and WHIP that you suggest. Like you, I'm confident that he will be a solid #3-4 starter.
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written by RobReed, January 06, 2009
The innings load difference between his days of relieving in the last few years concerns me. Hitters' BABIP against him was only .239. If we get a regression here of 30 points, which I think is entirely reasonable, his ERA will probably better reflect last season's FIP of 3.37.

My prediction is an ERA of somewhere between 3.50 and 4.00. Just a gut feeling. I disagree with Chris and think Dempster's stats are an aberration.

This being said, I'm not against him as a #3-#4 on my fantasy squad this year, expecting 3.5 ERA, 14 W, 1.35 WHIP, K/9 of somewhere around 7.5.
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written by Steve Shane, January 06, 2009
I was watching a A's game (Duchscherer started) last year around late Aug/early Sept and I remember the announcer, maybe Steve Phillips, saying that relievers turned starters dont perform well their second year as a starter. He gave some stats to back the claim up, I dont remember any of them, but I remember thinking to myself at the time all the reasons made sense.

If I drafted Dempster, Id let him put up some good starts when the wind is blowing in, then trade him 6 weeks into the season when the wind starts blowing out of Wrigley.
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written by Chris Mulligan, January 05, 2009
O,

In every draft I've been in Dempster has gone no earlier than the 12th round. I certainly wouldn't take him ahead of guys like Lackey or Volquez. However, if he slides to the 13th or 14th round I think he's a steal. I just got him in the 14th round of our slow draft and I think it's very good value there.
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written by big o, January 05, 2009
i've done quite a few drafts and dempster always seems to go in the 7th or 8th round.
this puts him in a grouping with guys like volquez and lackey.
i would certainly like to get him in the 16th , but given the circumstances i'd rather take my chances with lackey , if i had to choose one.

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