Outfielders across the American League have received deserved attention of late. Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury have made pitchers think twice prior to delivering to the plate. Adam Lind and Nelson Cruz have found hitting the ball out of the park to be an easy task. Even Torii Hunter has recovered from what some would call a down 2008 campaign.

 

The National League has not been given the same amount of press. The trade of Matt Holliday in the offseason, as well as slow starts from some perennial stars has seen fans migrate towards the power-hungry junior circuit. In fact, only 12 of the top-30 outfielders in terms of home runs are in the National League. With RBI, the number drops to 11 out of 30.

 

Overall, offensive production across all categories is represented by just over 60 percent American League players and just under 40 p ercent National League. Is that a huge split? Not in small samples. As leagues get deeper, these numbers get larger, and the free agent wire is where most of the impact is felt.

 

In 12-team leagues that start five outfielders, nearly 40 of the 60 selected will be from the American League. Add an extra player or two for the bench, and you can see where this is going. This means owners will need to do more homework on National League free agents simply because those are the players that will be available.

 

The last two weeks have again provided solid numbers for many outfielders. Looking strictly in the National League, there are some players to target to address category help or to look to buy in trades.

 

Chief among these players is still Aaron Rowand. Over two weeks, Rowand has scored more runs than Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter. His .370 average is better than Johnny Damon, and his overall production is very close to Brad Hawpe’s in the same period. Rowand only has seven more at-bats than Hawpe, but has produced one less home run. The Giants outfielder is not glamorous, but his production should be valued more highly than the 25 percent ownership indicates.

 

While Scott Hairston may have hit the DL, Jerry Hairston, Jr., is playing some good ball of his own. One of his greater values is position versatility. Hairston adds third and shortstop to his outfield eligibility, and that flexibility is certainly more attractive to owners. With the Reds outfielder, owners should use him in spurts. While he has hit well in June, he is a complete streak hitter based on recent trends. Ride it now, but be ready to get off quickly.

 

Cody Ross has continued to bring balanced production to the Marlins lineup. Ross has hit .277 in his last 47 at-bats, hitting two home runs, driving in seven, and scoring seven. He has even added a couple stolen bases to the numbers. Ross is never going to set the world on fire with his average, and owners expecting more than .265 are going to be disappointed. His power, though, merits attention. Ross has eight home runs this season and could easily hit 20. That becomes a stronger likelihood in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and that could be where Ross sees his value jump. The Marlins nearly dealt Ross to Atlanta before Atlanta acquired Nate McLouth. Defensively, Ross is strong, and his adequate power makes him an attractive option for relatively cheap dollars. If the Marlins continue to shop him around, Ross could benefit.

 

Speed continues to be one area where the National League continues to have more depth. With the power concentrated in the American League, small-ball has become more of the way in the senior circuit. At the top of the availability list for one-category work in steals is Michael Bourn. Bourn has 19 steals now on the season, including five in the last two weeks. His speed numbers rival those of the elite, yet he still remains widely available. The Astros outfielder is hitting .298, continuing the pace he was setting early in May.

 

Bourn’s BABIP is still well above his career averages and the league average numbers, checking in at .372. He is likely to regress back from that .298 mark, and if he were to hit .270-.275, that should be considered solid considering the speed production owners will receive. He will not help in the power categories, but he will not hurt in average either.

 

On the other side, there are notable names that have struggled over the last two weeks. One such outfielder is Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick is just four for his last 35 with one home run. Those are ugly numbers, especially for a guy coming off what many hoped was a breakout campaign in 2008. It is a good thing numbers can be misleading.

 

Ludwick’s struggles have come at the expense of some tough luck. His .231 BABIP is scary. That will come back; everything evens out in the end. Last season, he posted a BABIP of .349, after a .309 number in 2007. If we were to look at him the rest of the way, he should add 20 home runs to the total, coming in just north of 30. His average should climb based on better luck alone, and a .270 number the rest of the way would not surprise.

 

Buy low on Ludwick now. The peripheral stats do not support the current struggles.

 

At some point, Jay Bruce is going to start hitting again, and owners should want to be there for that explosion. Bruce is just two for his last 33, and has hit at only a .216 clip for the season. There are numbers to like about his 2009. Bruce is looking to improve his plate discipline, and that has largely been the reason for the recent issues at bat. Yes, he still strikes out too much, but he has improved by three points (per plate appearance) over his 2008 mark. Power hitters are going to strike out. It comes with the territory.

 

Bruce is also walking more. The problem comes in two areas. His BABIP is at .209 compared to nearly .300 last season. This part should return to a normal level, as he is more than unlucky with this number. The larger issue is that Bruce is hitting more fly balls than grounders or line drives, and the percentage is not even close.

 

As his plate discipline improves, Bruce should see those numbers regress to acceptable levels as well. Do not expect that 50 percent of his contact will be fly balls going forward. Many of those will level off to line drives as he makes stronger and better contact.

 

Bruce is a perfect buy-low candidate for teams looking to build depth in the second half of the season.

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Tags: Adam Lind  Aaron Rowand  Curtis Granderson  Jay Bruce  Ryan Ludwick  Michael Bourn  Cody Ross  Jerry Hairston  Nate McLouth  Nelson Cruz