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Quality Game Scores - Year in Review - WR PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Bob Lung   
Saturday, 31 July 2010 00:00
The wide receivers certainly had those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected wide receivers in 2009, plus which wide receivers could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.
So, let’s start with the first tier of the top wide receivers ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.
 



TIER ONE
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success Rate
Larry Fitzgerald
187.20
5
12
16
75%
DeSean Jackson
189.40
4
11
15
73%
Wes Welker
162.40
12
10
14
71%
Miles Austin
197.80
3
11
16
69%
 
In contract to the quarterbacks and running backs over the past couple of weeks, the top tier of consistent wide receivers for 2009 consists of wide receivers that had a 69% - 75% QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). Before we get too critical about the top tier of receivers this year, in 2008, the top tier of wide receivers with a 69% or higher QGSR, included only six receivers.
 
What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor), is the fact that they would have expected the top four wide receivers with an approximate 70% QGSR to ALSO be the top four overall fantasy points scorers. As you can see, they’re not. Wes Welker ranked 12th overall, while the other three receivers were ranked third, fourth and fifth. The top two overall receivers didn’t even earned a Quality Game more than 70% of the time. This trend of teams spreading the ball around to other receivers to stop teams from double-teaming the studs appears to be working for the real teams, but not the fantasy teams.
 
THE EXPECTED
 
Larry Fitzgerald was Mr. Consistency last season and won the award again this season.
Last year, however, Larry had an 88% QGSR, so while he maintained his top status, his consistency came down a little to stay closer to the pack.
 
Wes Welker is one of those receivers that you always think of when you think consistency, right? Not exactly. In any league, that includes one point per reception, Welker is a stud! But, in a non-PPR league in 2008, Welker earned only eight Quality games out of 16 for a sad 50% QGSR. However, in 2009, Welker became a consistent player even in non-PPR leagues and helped many teams to their fantasy championship.
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
DeSean Jackson had a solid rookie season with seven Quality Games and was one of my expected sleepers in 2009. But, I never expected Jackson to jump straight to the elite group and end up fourth for the season overall and have a 73% QGSR. His QGSR in 2008 was only 44%.
 
The biggest unexpected in this top tier is easily Miles Austin. In 2008, Austin was basically a fourth string receiver behind Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. However, all of that changed this year, as Austin became Tony Romo’s favorite target and he proved his a future star in the NFL. He will certainly be a top ten receiver in 2010, if not top five.
 
TIER TWO
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success Rate
Andre Johnson
211.90
1
10
16
63%
Randy Moss
203.40
2
10
16
63%
Reggie Wayne
186.40
6
10
16
63%
Roddy White
181.50
7
10
16
63%
Sidney Rice
178.20
8
10
16
63%
Chad OchoCinco
159.90
14
10
16
63%
Santonio Holmes
155.40
15
10
16
63%
Derrick Mason
145.00
17
10
16
63%
 
THE EXPECTED
 
I find it amazing that eight wide receivers all had the exact same QGSR of 63%. Beyond that, we finally see our No. 1 and No. 2 overall receivers in Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. We also expected Reggie Wayne and Roddy White to be at least in this tier, even though Reggie Wayne is normal in the top tier.
 
The one that you don’t expect is probably Derrick Mason. However, over the past three seasons combined only five other receivers have more total Quality Games. He’s always a Quality Game sleeper every season in the draft.
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
Chad OchoCinco talked a big talk as always this previous offseason and for once he backed it up with a fairly consistent year. I call it unexpected since Chad seemed to be on the downhill slide. However, I’m not sold this uphill trend will continue into next season.
 
Sidney Rice was not expected to be the top Vikings receiver in 2009. It was supposed to be Bernard Berrian, but Rice stepped up big time this year and became Brett Favre’s favorite target fairly early in the season and he never let go.
 
There weren’t many Santonio Holmes fans. I especially was down on him for a big reason and that was his inconsistency. However, unexpectedly Holmes stepped up and was as consistent as Andre Johnson, Moss and Wayne this season. If the Steelers continue their passing trend into 2010, he could continue this consistent trend.
 
TIER THREE
 
Player Name
Total Points
Pts Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QG Success Rate
Brandon Marshall
175.90
9
9
15
60%
Vincent Jackson
171.80
10
9
15
60%
Steve Smith (CAR)
142.40
19
9
15
60%
Calvin Johnson
133.70
21
8
14
57%
Steve Smith (NYG)
164.00
11
9
16
56%
Marques Colston
160.00
13
9
16
56%
Hines Ward
151.70
16
9
16
56%
Robert Meachem
133.40
22
8
16
50%
Mario Manningham
111.20
29
7
14
50%
 
Our last tier has a number of players that were expected to be top wide receivers. Now, some will look at the overall fantasy points for the year and see Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson at the ninth and tenth spots and say, “Hey, these guys were top 10 receivers.” Ok, but I will tell you that their 60% QGSR didn’t help too many fantasy teams who drafted these two to be their No.1 or even No. 2 receivers.
 
Marques Colston ended the season ranked 13th. Not bad, not what people expected out of one of the supposedly future stars in the NFL. Even worse was his 56% QGSR.
 
However, two of the most disappointing stars in 2009 were Steve Smith (CAR) and Calvin Johnson. Their rankings of 19th and 21st made many fantasy owners suicidal at best.
 
The other Steve Smith (NYG) was actually a pleasant surprise at 11th overall. He was certainly as inconsistent as these others, but was obviously drafted much lower and therefore his value way exceeded his draft position.
 
Hines Ward, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham all exceeded their draft position value in 2009 and I would expect Meachem to improve in 2010. I’m not 100% sold on Manningham’s future and Hines Ward is certainly on his downslope in his career.
 
Well, there’s your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the running backs in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Marques Colston or Calvin Johnson on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
 
If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.
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