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| PROJECTED TOP 20 | |||
| 1 | Chris Johnson | 11 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2 | Adrian Peterson | 12 | Randy Moss |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | Cedric Benson |
| 4 | Ray Rice | 14 | Drew Brees |
| 5 | Andre Johnson | 15 | Miles Austin |
| 6 | Steven Jackson | 16 | Ryan Grant |
| 7 | Frank Gore | 17 | Pierre Thomas |
| 8 | Michael Turner | 18 | Sidney Rice |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | 19 | Knowshon Moreno |
| 10 | Rashard Mendenhall | 20 | DeAngelo Williams |
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 Let’s take a look at who were the most consistent running backs in 2009. We’re going to look at the running backs and take a look at those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected running backs in 2009, plus which running backs could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.So, let’s start with the first tier of the top running backs ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate. TIER ONE
The top tier of consistent running backs for 2009 consists of running backs that had an 80% or higher QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). These names are familiar to the fantasy world. Ray Rice, as the lone rookie in the first tier, surprises all of us, but if you played fantasy football, you’re not surprised to see him here.
What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor), is the fact that they would have expected the top six running backs with an over 80% QGSR to ALSO be the top six overall fantasy points scorers. As you can see, they’re not. Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai ranked eighth and ninth overall. Therefore over 80% of their games they scored over the Quality Game Factor (9.34 fantasy points per game), but they didn’t score much over that amount each week either. Actually the both averaged over 13 points per game played, so don’t be too down on them.
THE EXPECTED
Adrian Peterson was Mr. Consistency this season with a 94% QGSR. When you realize that second place was 81%, you realize that he dominated the consistency world at running back. Now, here’s the funny part of this. Many fantasy experts called Peterson’s year a disappointment because of Favre “stealing” so many Red Zone touchdowns from Peterson this season.
Chris Johnson is the man that everyone is talking about in 2009! His No. 1 overall points victory by a 60 point margin over Peterson was the “water cooler” talk of the year. The reason for this talk was Johnson’s perfect 10 for 10 Quality Games over the last weeks of the season including the fantasy playoffs (even in Week 17). Was he expected to be good? Yes. Was he expected to No. 1 overall? Nope.
THE UNEXPECTED
As stated above, Ray Rice was a highly touted running back out of college. However, there are always great college running backs coming into the league, but most don’t end up their first year as the No. 4 running back in overall points and with an 80% QGSR. Just for a minute factor in the 12 rushing touchdowns that Willis McGahee “vultured” away from him, it’s almost scary how good he should be someday.
Thomas Jones was expected to be “stepping aside” for the new era in the Jets running game. Leon Washington and stud rookie, Shonn Greene. Jones didn’t “step aside”. Leon Washington got hurt and Shonn Greene did little to move Thomas Jones out of his starting role. The off-season question will remain, “Is Jones done in New York?” Only if he moves onto another club and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish wherever he goes.
Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai weren’t expected to be top 15 running backs. In fact, most rankings had them in the 16 – 24 range of the running backs. Grant and Addai not only ended up as the ninth and eighth overall running backs in fantasy points, but they both ended up an over 80% QGSR.
TIER TWO
THE EXPECTED
Frank Gore was all over the fantasy experts’ boards ranking from sixth to 15th. However, Gore proved he belongs by ranking sixth overall (even though he missed two games). He also had an excellent 79% QGSR.
Maurice Jones-Drew ended third overall, which was expected by most fantasy experts. His consistency was marginal at a 75%. This was his first full season without Fred Taylor, so we’ll give him a break. He will continue to be a stud for years to come.
While many would say that they did NOT expect Steven Jackson to end the season ranked 10th overall, I can honestly say that I did. With no other offensive weapons on the Rams team, as much as I love Jackson as a player, there was just no way I felt he could end up in top five or six. If he is undervalued in your draft next year and you can get him as your No. 2 running back, do it!
THE UNEXPECTED
Injuries to Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams caused all three of these projected 2009 studs to disappoint many fantasy teams. The good news was that when they played their Success Rate was close to 70% or higher. Don’t hesitate to draft these players in 2010. All three should be undervalued due to the injuries.
Cedric Benson was barely even a quip on the radar prior to the fantasy drafts, but Benson exploded onto the fantasy world with seven out of eight Quality Games until the injury bit him and slowed him down the rest of the season. He missed three games and was still ranked 15th overall and had a 77% QGSR.
Ricky Williams was grossly undervalued in the preseason and for the good reason that he has Ronnie Brown in front of him. However, Ricky proved his worth both when he shared the field with Brown and even more so after Brown got hurt. He ended the season ranked seventh overall.
LaDainian Tomlinson was given high expectations by myself and others. However, after Week Nine, Tomlinson had only earned three Quality Games for the year and was looking pretty bad in doing it. But, something clicked inside him at the start of Week Ten and he earned seven Quality Games over the next eight weeks to end the season with a 71% QGSR. Not what was expected of him, but still a nice comeback after such a horrible start.
TIER THREE
This tier consists of a bunch of different scenarios. We have Steve Slaton and Marion Barber at the top of this tier and Matt Forte at the bottom of this tier. These players were ranked in the top 15 during the preseason. However, injuries and the “sophomore” jinx kicked in and these two just couldn’t get it going.
Another group in here is the future stars at the running back position in fantasy football. Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles and Fred Jackson are all players to keep an eye on leading into the 2010 season.
The last group in this tier is the washed-up players like Laurence Maroney and Carnell Williams. They have a few good games to keep your interest, but they’re too inconsistent to worry about.
Well, there’s your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the running backs in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Steve Slaton or Matt Forte on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
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Tags: Quality Game Scores consistency running backs Adrian Peterson Ray Rice Ryan Grant Joseph Addai Chris Johnson Willis McGahee THomas Jones Frank Gore Maurice Jones-Drew Stephen Jackson Ronnie Brown Micheal Turner DeAngelo Williams Cedric Benson Ricky Williams Steve Slaton Marion Barber Matt Forte Pierre Thomas Rashard Mendenhall Knowshon Moreno Jonathan Stewart Jamaal Charles Fred Jackson Laurence Maroney Carnell Williams
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