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Quality Game Scores - Year in Review - QB PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Bob Lung   
Thursday, 29 July 2010 00:00
The 2010 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, so let’s take some time to review this past season and see just how consistent your fantasy players were.
 
Many times throughout my 25 years in fantasy football I have heard the complaint of how their team was in top three or four in scoring, but their team didn’t make the playoffs. This was why I created the Quality Game Scores concept in the first place, in order to indentify those players who were not only good (in total fantasy points), but consistently good.
 
We’re going to start with the quarterbacks and take a look at those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected quarterbacks in 2009, plus which quarterbacks could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.

So, let’s start with the top 25 quarterbacks ranked by total Quality Games earned.
 
Player Name
Total Points
Avg Points
Total QG
Total GP
QG Percent
Aaron Rodgers
391.10
1
14
16
88%
Peyton Manning  
339.70
4
14
16
88%
Drew Brees
353.70
2
13
15
87%
Matt Schaub
343.60
3
12
16
75%
Tony Romo
331.65
6
12
16
75%
Philip Rivers
323.70
9
12
16
75%
Ben Roethlisberger
325.30
8
11
15
73%
Tom Brady
327.30
7
11
16
69%
Eli Manning
293.55
10
11
16
69%
Kurt Warner
276.90
13
10
15
67%
Brett Favre
333.80
5
10
16
63%
Kyle Orton
267.20
16
10
16
63%
Donovan McNabb
278.75
12
9
14
64%
David Garrard
272.15
15
9
16
56%
Jay Cutler
287.50
11
8
16
50%
Carson Palmer
251.00
18
8
16
50%
Matt Ryan
228.70
19
7
14
50%
Jason Campbell
272.50
14
7
16
44%
Joe Flacco
256.85
17
7
16
44%
Matt Hasselbeck
211.35
20
6
14
43%
Matt Cassel
210.80
21
6
15
40%
Alex Smith
181.60
23
5
11
45%
Vince Young
165.05
26
5
12
42%
Chad Henne
187.10
22
5
14
36%
Matthew Stafford
167.15
25
4
10
40%
 
 
THE EXPECTED
 
Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at No. 2 and No. 4 respectively is an obvious expected. Both headed into the season as the top two fantasy quarterbacks. Peyton was perfect in Quality Games all season through Week 15 and then due to the Colts management “protection plan” in the last two weeks, he missed earning a Quality Game in each one. Brees was solid most of the season, though he did slack off near the end of the year, but still earned a Quality Game until Week 17.
 
Aaron Rodgers was expected to be a top fantasy quarterback. In fact, I predicted he would be a top three quarterback. Would have I bet on my house on him being at the top in overall fantasy point by almost 40 points over Brees and 50 points over Manning and be tied as the top Quality Game earner with 14 QG’s? Probably not. What is the main difference in separating Rodgers from these two? His feet! Rodgers had 304 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. Brees had 34 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Manning had -13 (yes, that’s a minus sign) yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns. Case closed.
 
THE UNEXPECTED
 
I know this may seem weird that we are already heading towards the unexpected. However, continue on and I think you’ll see why I believe the remainder of these players were unexpectedly (good or bad) in the rankings (both in overall points and Quality Games earned).
 
We start with Matt Schaub. I pat myself on the back because I did believe that if Schaub played all 16 games he would make the top six fantasy quarterbacks. So first, Schaub DID play all 16 games. THAT was unexpected. Second, Schaub ended the season as the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and had the second highest number of Quality Games earned with 13. Again, I predicted good, but not that good. Can he do it again in 2010? Tough call. I’m predicting no, but I hope I’m wrong.
 
The “roller coaster ride” known as Brett Favre had Vikings fans and fantasy owners in a tizzy all season. It was UNEXPECTED that he would play for the Vikings. He did. He was EXPECTED not to be very good. He was, as he ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. However, where he killed fantasy teams was with his inconsistency. He only earned 10 Quality Games, but so did Kyle Orton and he was ranked 16th! You see my point. His 63% Quality Game Success Rate was awful for someone who ranked fifth overall.
 
Another disappointing unexpected in 2009 was Phillip Rivers. He ranked in many expert’s top five for 2009 and while the Chargers as a team did well, Rivers ended the season ranked as the ninth best quarterback in total fantasy points.
Of course, at least Rivers didn’t have as high as expectations as Tom Brady. Brady, coming back from taking the entire 2008 season, except for the first quarter of the first game, was ranked in the top five, if not top three by most experts. He finished the year ranked seventh overall, but it was Brady’s inconsistency that killed many fantasy teams who drafted him in the first two to three rounds. Most of us expect better than a 69% success rate from Tom.
 
An unexpected good came from Tony Romo this season as he ended the season ranked sixth overall and had a 75% success rate. Many experts placed Tony out of the top ten and sometimes outside of the top fifteen. Many thought Tony was done when Terrell Owens and Jessica Simpson left town. He wasn’t.
 
Another unexpected good was Ben Roethlisberger in 2009. I’m pretty sure that he wasn’t ranked in the top 12 during the preseason and yet, even though he missed a game due to injury, he ended the season ranked eighth overall and earned a 73% success rate. He’s one to keep an eye on going into next season.
 
Swinging back to the bad side of unexpected, Kurt Warner had some small injuries and a fairly productive running game in Arizona and that held back to ranking only 13th overall and earning a 67% success rate. After a top five finish last year, this kind of lack of production will make him a little more “sleeper-esque” heading into next season.
 
Here’s a quickie for you. Donovan McNabb did NOT play a full 16 game season again. For the love of whomever, please do not draft him ever in your fantasy leagues. He just can’t stay healthy.
 
I’m saving my last unexpected for the Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton combo. The off-season trade put many fantasy experts high on Cutler and the Bears and down on Orton and the Broncos offense. While neither of them impressed anyone by the end of the season, Cutler did prove that he’s just as inconsistent in Chicago as he was in Denver by ranking 11th overall and only having a 50% success rate. Orton proved that he’s not a fantasy stud, but he’s pretty consistent as he earned two more Quality Games than Cutler, but only ranked 16th overall.
 
Well, there’s your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the quarterbacks in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Brett Favre or Tom Brady on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
 
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