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03 Feb 2009 |
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| Risky business. We all partake in it to some degree when assembling our squads (or eating at the chinese buffet). It's good to take risks in drafts. If you play the draft too safely you're going to end up in the middle of the pack looking up. Sometimes those big risks pays off and you're golden. Sometimes your gamble bites you in the behind like a rabid dog and now you're team is suffering because of it.
It's very important to identify the high risk players in preparing for your draft. So, you've gone through all the rankings and hopefully compiled your own. Risk shouldn't factor into your rankings. Players are ranked where they are for a reason. Rankings are based mostly on what a player is capable of at this point in his career. What you need to do is figure out how likely it will be for them to justify their rankings or surpass expectations. Even more importantly, you have to judge how likely it will be that they won't reach their projections or validate their draft status. I've compiled a list of a few players that will have a difficult time reaching their lofty projections and draft positions. Of course, this list is debatable but most things are in fantasy baseball. The ADPs listed come from www.mockdraftcentral.com. Brandon Phillips  I'm a fan of Brandon Phillips. He's a very nice combo package of power and speed at a very thin position. Recently my view of Phillips has changed, and he is a lightning rod of debate between our guys that are doing the Rankings on the Premium site. His '07 season when he hit .287 with 30 HR and 33 SB, makes him the easy choice as a number one 2B. Don't expect him to reach those numbers again but could get another 30 SB. But not in 2009. He may not get to 20 HR either. His current ADP is 29.39 and has even gone as high as 16. For a .261 career hitter this is an awfully high selection. Phillips is prone to the swing and miss far too often and his '08 .312 OBP is just not 3rd round status at any position. Position scarcity certainly factors in here but numbers are numbers no matter where you get them. Much safer picks for similar numbers are Nick Markakis and Corey Hart. Rafael Furcal Furcal has been all over the board in drafts but is currently sitting at an ADP of 63.12. That makes him a 5th or 6th round pick on average. Very risky for a guy with back problems. Back problems aren't pretty, especially at the age of 31. The bad back caused Furcal to miss the majority of the '08 season in which he got off to a very good start. But this was coming off of a career worst '07 season in which he hit .271 with only 6 HR and 25 SB. Back problems tend to linger and can ruin a player's career. You have to throw position scarcity out the window here and view him for what he is. It's a very risky proposition to use a 5th or 6th round pick on Furcal when much better players are still on the board. A less flashy but safer pick would be Orlando Cabrera who you can get much later in drafts. Scott Kazmir People become enamored with Kazmir. He has an electric left arm with nasty stuff. But let's look at him for what he has done. In four big league seasons he's only pitched two full ones and only one 200 IP season. He has 200 K potential but has only gone over that mark once and his career high in Wins is 13. Add to this that he has had a history of elbow and forearm problems and I can't help but wonder why he is annually drafted as high as he is. His ADP is currently 86.19 which makes him about a 7th round pick. In my opinion he has never justified that high of a pick and I'm not willing to risk that somehow this year is the year he does it. He's the definition of a risky pick. One could write a book on the many safer picks than Kazmir. Nelson Cruz What was a sleeper just over a month ago has turned into an uncontrollable Frankenstein-like creature. Cruz has shot up draft boards like a wide receiver with a 4.3 40 yard dash at the NFL Combines. His climb up the rankings and draft boards is off-putting to say the least. His current ADP is 129.29 but that doesn't tell the story. Cruz has come off the board as early as the 7th round and consistently in the 10th and 11th rounds. The potential for greatness is there but let's realize that at this point it's still just potential. One of my favorite sayings is, "Don't confuse activity with accomplishment". A very good month or so in '08 and he's being designated as the next big thing. Cruz is a risk that only seasoned fantasy vets should be taking. If you take him you better make sure you have a backup plan. Don't draft him before Raul Ibanez. By no means are any of these players busts. But these players should have caution tape wrapped around them and a bio-hazard sticker on their foreheads on draft day. Risking high picks on these players could be damaging to your health. When taking risks you have to pick your spots and try to minimize the risk as much as possible. Agree? Disagree? Give me some of your high risk players. Do you have any that you feel are more high risk than these guys? What high risk picks have come back to cripple your teams?
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Comments (17)
  written by DRAFTAHOLIC, February 07, 2009
No to Cruz! He is the Babe Ruth of the minors but he still needs to show me he can do it for a full year in the majors.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 06, 2009
That is a GREAT call on the Leiter comparison. I remember that year clearly. Everyone knocks Rich Harden and deservedly so but why all the love for Kazmir. I think they're very comparable on many levels. Both have great stuff, both are oft-injured, and when "healthy" still can't get to the 7th inning.
The big difference is that Kazmir walks more hitters than Harden. So why is Kazmir such a better pick? All I know is that I want nothing to do with either guy. Thanks for reading Steve.
written by Steve Shane, February 05, 2009
I totally agree with the assessment of Kazmir. I watched a lot of his starts in the 2nd half of last season, and I couldnt help but be reminded of Al Lieter during his last year with the Mets.
Lieter had a stellar 3.21 ERA, but averaged less than 6 INN per start mainly bc he had over 5 BB/9. He nibble way way too much. Kazmir had a nice 3.41 ERA last year, but averaged less than 5.2 IP per start, along with a 4.1 BB/9. Yes he struck out 9.8/9, but hes never going to surpass 180 IP pitching the way he does, and will win a lot less games being in there for so short a time.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 05, 2009
Yeah, Chuckie I missed that one. I was a little out of it the other night with some kind of flu and Tylenol Cold/Flu medicine. Maybe why I was so radical on Kazmir but that's how I feel. Thanks man.
written by Chuckie, February 04, 2009
I'm not sure I agree with you on Kazmir. Last time I looked he had "an electric left arm" not a right one. If he indeed did come up ambidexterious,then maybe we're on to something here.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 04, 2009
It should be a battle but I'm confident we'll both prevail. Tony has assembled himself a pretty potent roster thus far. But if Big O is making me the early favorite I've gotta feel good about that. We're out to prove whose site is the best.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 04, 2009
That sounds pretty cool Patrick. With so many roster spots you can't afford to over-bid.
written by tonycincotta, February 04, 2009
He is going to be tough in the MLBFRONT OFFICE league. It is crazy head to head league. Two teams from our divison get in ...So I expect an all FantasyPros911 playoff.
written by patrick dicaprio, February 04, 2009
i really think that thee guys move up because of tacit communication. i will have to write about it if Greco ever lets me drop one of the oars for five minutes but damn, that guy is a slavedriver.
written by patrick dicaprio, February 04, 2009
guys like these are why i love my current league format. we get $260 for NL only but also get seven reserve spots that can, but do not have to be, overauctioned. so you must auction 24 starters, but can auction as many as 30. it keeps inflation down and allows you to speculate the Dukes' of the world if you can. in mixed leagues the cost is way too high.
written by big o, February 04, 2009
straighten up dude .
1'm laying 7/5 that you're beating cincotta this year . watch out for that guy .
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 04, 2009
Good catch there Big O and I apologize. Feeling pretty bad the last few days and I think I was high on some kind of Tylenol Cold/Flu concoction. Didn't help much as my head was so congested that I could barely read my screen.
I'm not denying the potential that Kazmir has but for a guy who has trouble staying on the field, I'm just not ready to committ a 7th round pick for him. I agree with everything you said but until he proves he can do those things I'm staying away. Talk to you later man.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 04, 2009
Same here Mike. People are really rolling the dice by drafting Furcal so early. I just think the risk outweighs the potential gain there.
You nailed it with Kazmir too. The walks are very troubling. He just doesn't look comfortable out there anymore. Especially in the playoffs, it looked like he was using the restroom in his pants. Thanks for reading man.
written by ChristopherMulligan, February 04, 2009
Like I said, I like Cruz but I'm not willing to risk a 9th or 10th round pick on him.
Dukes is a risky pick but the risk is minimized by picking him late. It's still up in the air as to how much playing time he's going to get this year too. Thanks man.
written by big o, February 03, 2009
chris :
excellent article. but i think you're only batting .750 here , as i'm going to argue Kazmir's inclusion to your list . first off , you've got him "plugging in" the wrong arm. secondly , when healthy enough to pitch 200+ innings , he doesn't have just 200 K potential , he crushes it . sure he's had some elbow problems , and perhaps some surgery will be required , but until then i'll take the 160-180 innings . provided he can get a better handle on his walk rate , he could approach a sub .300 era and a corresponding drop in his whip . a much less risky pick than utley, imo.
written by MikePodhorzer, February 03, 2009
I continue to be shocked by Furcal's ADP. I could swear he was drafted later in 2008 drafts. How does he move up after barely playing and suffering from truly scary back injuries? I was sure he'd end up on a bunch of my teams, but if my leagues are anything like MDC drafters, so the risk may be too great for me.
I also used to think Kazmir was undervalued, but this year I'm afraid. He's yet another young pitcher who just doesn't look quite right. Between his K/9 decline, BB/9 increase, massive increase in FB%, and curious drop in slider usage, the red flags are flying.
written by D Wrek, February 03, 2009
Definitley agree on Cruz. Hes seems to be the flavor of the month and from Ryan's comments the other day, it doesnt even sound like he has been giving a starting oppurtunity yet. Hes 28, we've been down this road before with him. Not saying Id be suprised by a good year, just agreeing with the risk factor, especially paired with where hes being drafted.
A risky guy I can never seem to keep my hands off of is Elijah Dukes. The 20/20 potential is so tempting. But he is not the healthiest guy and he could rip someones head off at any minute.
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Tags: mixed league drafts draft strategy sleepers busts brandon phillips rafael furcal scott kazmir nelson cruz
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