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12 Jun 2009 |
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Tweet me!Max Scherzer made an impressive major-league debut with the Diamondbacks in 2008, retiring the first thirteen consecutive batters he faced out of the bullpen. That set a new record for consecutive batters retired by a pitcher making his debut as a reliever, and, since Scherzer also struck out seven over his first five innings, it made for a proper introduction to his superior skills as a pitcher.
 (Scherzer also made an impressive start yesterday, striking out six over seven innings and two outs, and only giving up three hits and a walk with no runs. Those statistics are not included in the numbers to follow)Scherzer has long promised to be a strikeout king, dating from his first season in the Diamondbacks' organization. Drafted out of the University of Missouri in 2006, Scherzer punched through High-A and Double-A ball in 2007, totaling over 100 strikeouts between the two leagues, and overpowering batters at a combined 10.29 strikeout rate. He started even better at the Triple-A level in 2008, as he struck out 38 over his first four starts and earned his late-April call-up to the major-league team. But the bright promise of Scherzer's start would soon cloud up. He brought his strikeout skills with him to the major leagues, but also carried along inconsistent control, and struggled halfway through the season with shoulder fatigue. The Diamondbacks used him from the bullpen and as a spot starter through the year, and--since his shoulder kept him out for a month of the regular season--sent him to play in the Arizona Fall League in hopes of building his stamina for 2009. With two months' service as the Diamondbacks' fifth starter this year, Scherzer is working to develop his strikeout power into an elite set of winning skills. How is he progressing? Inconsistent PowerHere are Scherzer's peripherals from this year and the last two:Year ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP BABIP 2007 (AA) 3.91 1.41 9.29 4.89 3.46 .316 2008 (AAA) 2.72 1.08 13.42 3.74 2.07 .319 2008 3.05 1.23 10.61 3.38 3.33 .319 2009 4.10 1.43 9.56 4.10 4.20 .324 Year LOB% LD% GB% FB% HR/FB% 2007 (AA) 67.4% 16.4% 49.8% 30.4% 4.8% 2008 (AAA) 71.2% 13.6% 51.7% 32.2% 5.3% 2008 74.6% 28.1% 41.7% 30.2% 11.9% 2009 77.8% 18.9% 43.9% 37.2% 13.1% As we can see, Scherzer has maintained his high strikeout rate through his second season in the major leagues. While it is down from last year's rate of 10.61, that's to be expected from a player moving from bullpen duty to work as a full-time starter. At the same time, Scherzer has shown little improvement in his walk rate, which has never been very good, and is his single greatest weakness as a pitcher. In fact, Scherzer's record offers a textbook example of the effects of peripheral stats on a pitcher's performance. While Scherzer's walk rate has always been high, it has also been paired with extremely high strikeout rates and extremely low HR/FB rates. That explains how his FIP managed to stay below 4.00 for the past three years, and why this year, when his HR/FB rate is closer to average (a few points higher than average, even) and his K/9 rate isn't pushing 14, Scherzer's FIP is 4.20, or right in line with his actual ERA. (To put these numbers into context, Scherzer's strikeout rate currently ranks in the top ten of starters in 2009. At the same time, his FIP is the second-highest of the top twenty, and one of only three in that top twenty over 4.00) The upshot of all this is that Scherzer is entering his second year of major-league competition facing the full force of major-league hitting. Fly balls aren’t falling his way, and his free passes aren't free for him any more. The good news is that his fastball, slider, and changeup are still strong enough to strike out batters at an elite rate. The bad news is that he sorely needs to improve his other skills. The Benefits of Being CarefulSo what are his prospects for the near future? To start with, the Diamondbacks are very clearly being cautious with Scherzer's development, as they intend to limit him to around 175 innings this year. That may be good news for the preservation of Scherzer's shoulder and arm; it also shows that the team is very serious and intent on the long-term development of Scherzer's skills.In the minor leagues, Scherzer had some success inducing ground balls at a higher rate than he's been able to manage at the major-league level. If he can recapture that ability at a higher level of play, and can improve his control, there's nothing to keep him from ranking as one of the elite pitchers in the game. Until then, and likely for the rest of this year, he looks to be a reliable source for strikeouts, with a full fifth-starter's complement of earned runs and walks. What do you think? Can Scherzer become one of the best pitchers around?
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