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As promised at the end of my last article, I tinkered with my player ranking formula to come up with a new set of rankings, and also plugged the stats of a couple more players in to see how they compare against the “top 50”. The New and Hopefully Improved Formula
Last time, I was just getting my feet wet so the multipliers I assigned to the different stats were a little arbitrary. I wanted to get comfortable and make sure my logic at least made sense. This time, I took a more scientific approach. It is a little complicated to explain what I actually did, so I will skip straight to the results. I found that on average, the players in the top half of the “top 50” had 20.6% more RBI than the average as a whole for the top 50. Meanwhile, the bottom half had 19% less than average. This helped me establish how big of a spread there was between the top players and bottom players in a certain category. The bigger the spread, the more important the stat is because you are much better off getting a star than a bum. I took the average of these two differences to get a multiplier of 1.20. I did the same with the other categories, which gave me multiples of 1.1 for runs, 1.28 for HR, 1.8 for SB and 1.05 for batting average.
I also cut the point values assigned to batting average in half because it was too influential in the last rankings. For example, a .286 batting average would now be worth -5 instead of -10, while a .306 average would be worth 5 instead of 10.
The Results
Alex Rodriguez (391.26 pts)
Hanley Ramirez (353.88)
David Wright (353.67)
Matt Holliday (349.74)
Jose Reyes (335.87)
Carlos Beltran (320.45)
Ryan Howard (320.25)
Albert Pujols (314.11)
Jimmy Rollins (310.24)
Magglio Ordonez (306.01)
Grady Sizemore (305.88)
Chase Utley (304.7)
Miguel Cabrera (297.79)
Lance Berkman (297.32)
Ryan Braun (293.99)
Bottom 5
Matt Kemp (211.47) – I really should not have included him due to his 300 AB’s in 2007
Hunter Pence (206.88)
Brian McCann (198.34)
Joe Mauer (197.69)
Stephen Drew (175.42)
As you can see, my new formula helped fix the batting average problem as Ordonez dropped three slots, Ichiro dropped out of the top fifteen, and Mauer slid into the bottom five comfortably below McCann where he belongs.
I also think that top fifteen list looks pretty good. If Holliday were still in Colorado (where he accumulated the stats that allowed him to be ranked so high), all of these guys would most likely be drafted with the first fifteen picks, with the exception of Ordonez and Berkman. This is much more accurate than the last formula which had Ichiro and Chipper Jones ranked in the top 10. While it is probably not the optimal formula, I am pretty happy with what I accomplished on only my second attempt.
New Additions
As promised, I added a couple of players to the top 50 to see how they matched up. There are now 58 spots in the rankings.
Derrek Lee (Rank: 40, 243.88 pts)
Michael Young (Rank: 43, 225.26 pts)
Derek Jeter (Rank: 46, 233.07 pts)
Adrian Beltre (Rank: 47, 230.84 pts)
Chris Young (Rank: 48, 225.26 pts)
Jhonny Peralta (Rank: 51, 220.36 pts)
Placido Palanco (Rank: 52, 216.23 pts)
Jose Lopez (Rank: 57, 188.12 pts)
As you can see, there is some real value available outside the top 50. Peralta and Beltre are going much lower than their ranks suggest, and in many standard 12 team leagues, Lopez is not even being drafted. Doing your own in depth analysis is a great way to find bargains in the lower rounds, and stop you from overpaying for guys who are going in the first 6-7 rounds. Even though Michael Young might be a bit better than Peralta, I would rather take Peralta two rounds later and use the Young pick on another player.
Conclusion
That is all I will post about player rankings for now but as you can see, if you have the time, it can be very beneficial to assign your own values to players.
What do you think of the new formula? Are you going to try something similar in preparation for the start of the fantasy baseball season?
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Tags: Rankings Alex Rodriguez Hanley Ramirez David Wright Matt Holliday Jose Reyes Carlos Beltran Ryan Howard Albert Pujols Jimmy Rollins Magglio Ordonez Grady Sizemore Chase Utley Miguel Cabrera Lance Berkman Ryan Braun Matt Kemp Hunter Pence Brian McCann Joe Mauer Stephen Drew Derrek Lee Michael Young Derek Jeter Adrian Beltre Chris Young Jhonny Peralta Placido Palanco Jose Lopez
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