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19 Feb 2009 |
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| A week ago, Patrick DiCaprio said that he would use my rankings posted on the premium site to test out in a mock draft on Mock Draft Central. He suggested that I do the same and this past Saturday afternoon, I did. And BOY were the results shocking. You will have to cut to the end for the amazing results. This might be a surprise to some given how mock draft crazy our writers are, but this mock was only my third of the entire off-season, and one of those three was actually held on the last day of the 2008 season! So this was only my second mock draft during 2009. The first one I drafted naked, which is how I've always mock drafted. For this last mock, I followed my rankings almost to a T. For the most part, I automatically drafted the player atop my rankings at the time of my pick, as long as there was an open roster spot for the player. Each pick was completely mechanically with zero thought into any of my selections, blindly following my rankings. I made only two exceptions: no catchers or middle infielders at my Utility slot and after I drafted my 3rd closer, I would not draft another one. The exceptions were necessary to ensure there was at least some realism involved. Drafting from the 7th slot, this is the team I compiled:
Now for some thoughts on my team and the draft in general: 1. I drafted Ryan Doumit in the sixth round. For those who subscribe to the premium site, this won't surprise you. I was surprised, however, that even with his ranking, I didn't end up drafting him earlier. Taking Brian McCann in the fourth may have also been a mild surprise in that I didn't draft him earlier due to his ranking. This happened because many more valuable players were passed up at spots they should have been drafted, such as Carlos Beltran and Carl Crawford, which allowed me to select them at a discount, while not being forced to draft McCann or Doumit right at value. 2. Yup, I drafted my 2B, SS and MI in the last three rounds! Considering that my rankings properly value the impact of position scarcity, this was quite a surprise to me. I think fantasy owners may be overcompensating for position scarcity. They recognize that it exists, but since most fantasy owners don't actually quantify the effects, they "reach" for players at scarce positions and end up overpaying. What I find odd is that this doesn't occur with the catcher position as well as catchers are consistently undervalued. 3. A month ago, Kevin Orris wrote an article declaring Adrian Beltre Mr. Undervalued 2009. With a current ADP of 195, Kevin is dead on. It boggles my mind as to why Beltre goes so late. 4. At age 27, apparently no one expects Carl Crawford to rebound. Or, fantasy owners just do not properly value his projected stat line. I vote for both, because even when Crawford was at the top of his game, he was still undervalued as many fantasy owners just couldn't understand how he was a first round value. People continue to harp on his power potential, but his value barely hinges on that. Sure, 20 home runs would add to his value, but it's not necessary to earn first round value. 5. David DeJesus is being drafted 286th overall. This is absurd. Lesson: players who contribute a little in every category, but do no one thing really well, are perennially undervalued. Randy Winn agrees. 6. Strictly following my rankings forced me to draft four pitchers in the top 10 rounds. I don't think I've ever done this before! I also continually had to pass up closers that appeared at the top of my rankings because I had already drafted three. This was frustrating as Chad Qualls, among others, sat atop my rankings list for quite a number of rounds. 7. Javier Vazquez in the 7th round? Sign up for the premium site to find out exactly what I'm projecting for him this year. 8. Gil Meche in the 19th round is just ridiculous. His ADP is 252, yet he has now posted two straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons and he saw a nice spike in skills in the second half, suggesting further improvement is possible. Carlos Pena, 4.10 (ADP 66)- Seriously? A first baseman who is above replacement level in only two categories at the end of the 4th round? I continue to believe that fantasy owners do not properly value batting average. This is of course in addition to the fact that first basemen on the whole are overvalued as there are enough owners who draft purely based on raw stats, rather than those adjusted for position. Justin Morneau, 2.3 (ADP 20)- Ugh. You don't receive points for past MVP trophies. See above Pena comment about statistics relative to position and replacement. Morneau is nowhere near worthy of a second round pick. Chris Davis, 6.1 (ADP 67)- Any fantasy site that continues to label him as a sleeper clearly hasn't kept up with the fantasy baseball world since the end of the 2008 season! Anyone else see a theme here? He is yet another corner infielder who is being drafted way too early. At least Davis is somewhat explainable since he is young and provides visions of 40 home runs. Ryan Zimmerman, 6.5 (ADP 94)- No idea. General draft thoughts: Except for some wacky picks, it appears that fantasy owners just blindly draft the way everyone else does, and in line with a player's ADP. First basemen on the whole are overvalued, catchers are undervalued, position scarcity for middle infielders may actually be exaggerated, and high skilled newly appointed closers with a lack of experience drop too far. This all means that you have many opportunities to take advantage of the misvaluations by your competitors. Now that all my thoughts and explanations are out of the way, how did the projected standings think I did? Before we get to those, I wanted to point out that by simply looking at the names on my team, it doesn't appear to be very impressive. In fact, when my draft ended, I figured my team would be projected for a middle of the pack finish at best, especially given the fact that my middle infield was composed of the cringe-worthy trio of Polanco, Lopez and Betancourt! Below are the projected standings from ALL Projections, my team is Running Cows:
This second set of projected standings is from Baseball HQ:
This was a real shock to me. I was not only projected to win the league using ALL projections, but by a margin of nine points! Then I click over to Baseball HQ's projections and they have me absolutely dominating by 21 points! It's no surprise that Baseball HQ is the kindest to my team; this happens every time I draft because we share the same philosophies and underlying principles. I was very pleased to see these results given the way I drafted. If I had drafted the way I typically would in a real draft, there's a strong possibility my margin of victory would have been even greater. I think this validates my rankings, especially since they are quite against the grain. Even despite drafting Ryan Doumit in the sixth round and Javier Vazquez in the seventh round, in addition to several other players many rounds before their ADP, the results are exciting. In fact, this sort of supports Patrick's argument that ADP should be ignored! However, I would respond that if I had taken ADP into account, I would have finished with even more projected points.
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Comments (9)
  written by phil, February 19, 2009
Thanks for responding. I do enjoy your site, and used to read you on the fantasybaseball generals.
I like Doumit, and understand your reasoning, but i've been doing a fair amount of mock-drafting, and i've yet to see doumit go before round 8, usually around 10-12, and i don't see him producing 6th round value, but i do follow your reasoning and mock draft strategy, so my point loses some weight. Also, do you think C are rated too low in a 2-C league vs. a 1-C league? Beltre is a "blah" player. Even if he gets 19 HR's, why is that special for 3B? I do agree his ADP is low, but is he a "steal"? I guess that depends on the league set-up, and when one drafts him. I must be on a different planet in regards to crawford. He's what, a 100/15/80/.300/50 player? His value is steals based, and he doesn't hurt in the other categories, so besides Reyes there is not another player that contributes as much in steals while not hurting in the other categories. Typing this out has made me see his value, so maybe i can be convinced he's a good player. Keep up the good work!
written by MikePodhorzer, February 18, 2009
Lots to respond to here! For me personally, I don't really find straight drafting to be much of a skill. Like I said above, I simply draft for value, taking the guys who fall to me. I don't target players, positions, categories, anything, so I'm not sure what actual skills are involved as long as you have good dollar values. But again, that's just my own view.
Wow, those are some very pessimistic Beltre projections! What makes you so bearish on him? He's hit at least 19 HRs for 7 straight seasons! Why do you expect a sudden drop to just 15? What are you expecting from Crawford? Not that good? He certainly had a down year in 2008, but in previous seasons he earned near 1st round value every single year! Doumit- did you read the intro? This was a mechanical draft based strictly on my rankings. ADP was therefore completely ignored as I put no thought into any pick.
written by Phil, February 18, 2009
You say "I don't see how mock drafting would help me." I've heard this sentiment from many FBB sites, and I look at it a different way.
I see it as a way to sharpen my skills, meaning my goal is to put together the best possible team. Sometimes i'll take a SS/1B 1st two rounds, or maybe i won't take a pitcher until round 10, or whatever. I'm not necessarily testing strategies, but trying to make the best possible team. Three other things as well. Beltre i have at 80/15/80/10, those numbers dont impress me at 3B. I'd rather take a shot on Davis. Crawford's another one, not that good, definitely not a first 5 rounder, what has he shown? And he's the magic 27? So? Lastly, Doumit in the 6th is rediculous. Talk about over-drafting, you could've had him at least 2 rounds later. My non-expert advice: try some more mock drafts, they do help.
written by MikePodhorzer, February 17, 2009
Well Rhett, like I said in my intro, I don't mock very often. That's because I just don't really care to. I'm only in one straight draft league this year and I don't see how mock drafting would help me.
I don't really need to test out strategies or try something new in my real drafts. I use the same "strategy" every draft, and that's just to grab as much value as possible based on the players who drop to me. So to answer your question, the reason to mock is simply to see how my rankings perform, especially considering how different they are from the consensus and ADP.
written by Rhett Oldham, February 17, 2009
Mike, nice article but this is the real quandry. Why are you mocking, or more specifically, what is the goal of each mock draft to you.
Personally, I don't know if I really care about the rankings based on projections. Many mock drfts I do are based on looking at a particular off the wall strategy and my projections may not be the same as others. I think the mock draft projections are fun but mock drafts to me are preparing for a season where the real money is in play.
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Tags: mock drafts sleepers busts undervalued overvalued fantasy baseball strategy player valuation dollar values projections
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Keep up the good work!