Lance Berkman (HR14, R29, RBI16) AVG

Adam Dunn (HR7, R29, RBI29)
 

David Wright (SB27, HR17, R6, RBI4, AVG10)
 

Albert Pujols (HR6, R12, RBI6, AVG1)

Carlos Beltran (SB27, HR10, R3, RBI6)

Ryan Braun (HR2, R14, RBI9, AVG24)

Matt Holliday (HR24, R8, RBI17, AVG4) SB

Chase Utley (HR27, R4, RBI23, AVG20)
 

Alex Rodriguez (HR2, R6, RBI5) SB, AVG

Hanley Ramirez (SB3, R1, AVG12) HR

Ryan Howard (HR1, R17, RBI1)

Miguel Cabrera (HR10, RBI3, AVG6) R

Ichiro Suzuki (SB9, R14, AVG7)

Lance Berkman (HR10, R14, RBI10) AVG

Grady Sizemore (SB13, HR27, R4)

Prince Fielder (HR2, R27, RBI18)

Manny Ramirez (HR14, RBI14, AVG20) R

Mark Teixeira (HR14, R27, RBI8) AVG

Josh Hamilton (HR17, RBI13, AVG28) R

Adrian Gonzalez (HR17, R22, RBI21)

Bobby Abreu (SB24, R13, RBI28)
 

Overall, these lists look a lot like the actual results from 2008. There aren’t any young players appearing here who weren’t already at this caliber from last year which is no big surprise for these projection systems (even though CHONE incorporates minor league stats into its projections). Both lists disagreed on the projections of some players with CHONE reflecting more positively on Vlad, Teixeira and Cabrera while Marcel favored Beltran, Braun, Ichiro and Holliday pretty significantly. Perhaps the biggest surprise from these lists was how strongly CHONE valued David Ortiz. Despite his injuries and declined totals from 2008, CHONE still projects Ortiz to be a Ryan Howard-esque run-producer.
 

Minor differences aside, what we’re really looking for here are players with the greatest relative value. This is what the lists look like once they’re filtered to include groupings of players who have the most rankings of greatest relative value (1-5=all; 6-11=SB, AVG; 12-18=R, RBI; 19-27=HR). Those categories are listed in bold.
 

Albert Pujols (HR3, R6, RBI4, AVG1)

Miguel Cabrera (HR8, R15, RBI3, AVG2)

Alex Rodriguez (HR2, R4, RBI2, AVG28)

Hanley Ramirez (SB3, R3, AVG7) HR
 

Chase Utley (HR23, R7, RBI18, AVG22)

David Ortiz (HR5, R11, RBI4) AVG

Ryan Howard (HR1, R20, RBI1)

Jose Reyes (SB1, R2, AVG28)

Vladimir Guerrero (HR23, RBI10, AVG8) R

Carlos Beltran (HR23, R10, RBI17)

Grady Sizemore (SB28, HR23, R1) AVG

Jimmy Rollins (SB11, R5)

Prince Fielder (HR4, RBI13) R, AVG

Alfonso Soriano (HR5, R14) RBI

Ichiro Suzuki (R15, AVG11) SB

Aramis Ramirez (HR19, RBI14) AVG

Dan Uggla (HR23, R13)
 

Matt Holliday (HR24, R8, RBI17, AVG4) SB

Ryan Howard (HR1, R17, RBI1)

Ichiro Suzuki (SB9, R14, AVG7)
 

David Wright (SB27, HR17, R6, RBI4, AVG10)

Albert Pujols (HR6, R12, RBI6, AVG1)

Ryan Braun (HR2, R14, RBI9, AVG24)

Chase Utley (HR27, R4, RBI23, AVG20)

Alex Rodriguez (HR2, R6, RBI5) SB, AVG

Hanley Ramirez (SB3, R1, AVG12) HR

Miguel Cabrera (HR10, RBI3, AVG6) R

Grady Sizemore (SB13, HR27, R4)

Prince Fielder (HR2, R27, RBI18)

Jose Reyes (SB1, R2) AVG

Brian Roberts (SB5, R17)

Jimmy Rollins (SB11, R17)

Justin Morneau (HR27, RBI2) R, AVG
 

Again, it’s important not to read too much into the significance of relative value – it’s simply a means of comparing otherwise equal quantities. My main goal with these last two articles was to see if there was anyone who has the ultimate relative value, in that their offensive strengths match up perfectly with each category’s greatest strength. Unfortunately, such a player does not exist and the most categories of relative strength any player had was three. What these results did show me was how to evaluate players in regard to their secondary strengths.
 

Allow me to elaborate. Seeing that Jose Reyes has strong relative value in steals and runs is hardly material for an epiphany as we already know he’s going to be one of the best in both of those categories. Everyone knows how to judge players by their strengths but knowing how to evaluate players by their third, fourth, or even fifth best categories can set you apart from everyone else in your league. With that in mind, the most important things to look for in the lists demonstrating relative value are instances of players with category ranks of double digits that are in bold.

It seems like the group of players who benefit the most from using this perspective are guys who are primarily speed/batting average guys who also have a little pop. This makes sense, as homeruns are the category with the lowest range (highest number of rank) of greatest relative value. Because there are so many guys in recent years who have hit 25-30 homeruns it’s easy to get strong value from guys who are in that 80^th to 85^th percentile.
 

Take for example, Grady Sizemore. He’s known for his runs and stolen bases (while CHONE only has him as 28^th in steals, this is because that system projects so many speedy rookies to steal a lot of bases), but he’s also no slouch for power. He likely won’t be among the league-leaders in homers but his decent total adds tremendous relative value for being his third-best category. Utley’s another guy who fits this bill – although he won’t steal as many bases as Sizemore, both systems project homeruns to be his fourth-best category behind runs, RBI and average. But because he’ll still give you solid power, this makes him all the more valuable.
 

A player’s homerun rank doesn’t have to fit exactly in that 19^th-27^th range for it to carry this strong relative value (after all, this is just a range approximation around the 85^th percentile). Guys whose homerun ranks are either just above this group (David Wright) or just behind it (Hanley Ramirez) also have added value when their homeruns are their third- or fourth-best stat. So while pursuing top-tier power in the early rounds won’t necessarily hurt you, it’s good to know that you can target other guys with more overall value that will still keep you in the hunt for homers.

Hopefully you’ve found these articles to be helpful for you – I know I’ve learned a good bit in just writing them. I think that understanding relative value is an essential component of draft strategy since knowing how to distinguish two otherwise equal players can make all the difference between league champ and everyone else.