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17
Jan
2009
Mr. Undervalued 2009 PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Baseball Blog
Written by Kevin Orris   
Last off-season I wrote an article similar to this one at MLBFrontOffice.com, where I analyzed the stats of five players being taken in the first five rounds of mock drafts, and the fact that Chipper Jones was qualified to be drafted before any of the other four.  It turns out that I was right after Jones hit .394 in the first half of 2008, and then was slowed down by nagging injuries, but those who listened traded him before they hit and got top value.

This year, I hope to do the same thing.  Below is a list of five anonymous third basemen (with their 2008 stats) that are being taken in 2009 mock drafts over at MockDraftCentral.com thus far:

  Runs HR RBI SB AVG ADP
Player A 86 21 99 1 286 69
Player B 75 26 68 1 251 113
Player C 50 23 58 4 285 185
Player D 77 23 104 3 285 188
Player E 74 25 77 8 266 191

Now, let me give you some more info on each player:
  • Player A: Plays in a great hitters park, but lost his protection in the lineup this off-season.  Every stat but runs has consistently decreased in the last three years. 29 years old.
  • Player B: Also plays in a great hitters park, but his team lacks a true power hitter.  Career low batting average, but power numbers are expected to fall slightly this year. 26 years old.
  • Player C: Consistent player that bounces around from team to team each year.  Fell just short of 400 at bats in 2008 because of fractured thumb.  Batting average is expected to drop. 31 years old.
  • Player D: Plays in a below average offense, and starting to age.  RBI's much higher than 2008, batting average should go down as will contact rate.  37 years old.
  • Player E: Also featured in a below average lineup, but will get lots of plate appearances.  Has shown strong power in years past, but has been consistent for the past three years.  AVG, runs, and RBI's all expected to rise in 2009.  30 years old. 
Now each of these players has pros and cons, some have more experience than others, but some have better potential.  

As you may have guessed, Player A is Garrett Atkins, who lost Matt Holliday this off-season and has been on a progressive downturn, but is at the prime age for a hitter.

Player B is Edwin Encarnacion, who has shown flashes of good power, but has yet to legitimize himself as a solid major league player.  His batting average went way down in 2008 because of a very low BABIP, especially against righties, but likely won't make a full rebound in 2009.   

Player C is Ty Wigginton, whom is currently without a team, but will likely be signed by opening day.  As previously mentioned, Wigginton is a very consistent player who provides exactly what one can expect each year.

Player D is Melvin Mora, the aging Baltimore third baseman.  Mora had a great 2008, but it puzzles me why he is being drafted above Player E, Adrian Beltre.

Most fantasy owners remember Beltre from his 2004 campaign with the Dodgers where he hit 48 home runs and knocked in 121 runs.  Or maybe you remember him from 2006 when he finished with the second most home runs in the World Baseball Classic with four, and tied for third in RBI's with 9 for his native Dominican Republic.  

As you already know, it just so happens that the second World Baseball Classic will take place in 2009, and Beltre is likely to play once again.  Not only that, but Beltre is expected to rebound in both runs scored, AVG, and RBI's in 2009 after suffering from a career low BABIP.  

Now, I'm not going to go as far as saying that Beltre will top Garrett Atkins' 2009 numbers, but there's a chance he can duplicate them, and at a much better value (over 120 picks later).  Sure, you can make a case that Encarnacion is young and has a lot of potential, but the Cincy lineup is lacking a power bat right now after losing Adam Dunn in 2008.  

Depending on his team come opening day, chances are that Wigginton will put up his typical .285 AVG with 70 RBIs and 20-25 home runs, that is if he starts.  Mora on the other hand is showing signs of age, and got pretty lucky to inherit a lot of runners in scoring position last year.  

Now with all of that in consideration, all of these players have decent power, but Beltre has the most career home runs out of the bunch and each of the guys are equal in runs scored.  None of these guys are base stealing threats, but Beltre has the best chance of double digit steals.  

Although Beltre doesn't possess the best batting average, we expect it to rise in 2009, and he is being drafted lower than every one of the other third basemen. 

In conclusion, when drafting in the later rounds, you should draft for upside rather than consistency, but especially upside that has been proven before.  When considering a third basemen for 2009, take an extra look at Beltre, because waiting on him could put your team over the top.  Did I mention he's in a contract year?
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written by lenny melnick, January 17, 2009
and of course the FA thing that most swear by for Beltre :cheer:
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written by BrianJoura, January 17, 2009
I'm a big Adrian Beltre fan - he's a terrific player, especially with the glove. I know that does nothing from a fantasy POV but I like rooting for well-rounded players.

No one should draft Wigginton over Beltre. Check out Wiggys H/R splits - he did all his damage at the Juice Box and likely will not return to Houston.
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written by kevinorris, January 17, 2009
We still can't gaurentee anything from Bruce- he was pretty inconsistent last year. Votto was hot and cold last year.

The Red know they need another bat, that's why they've been trying to bring in someone like Jermaine Dye.
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written by lenny melnick, January 17, 2009
Last year at this time they had Griffey as well
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written by Steve, January 17, 2009
The Reds lost Dunn but aren't they replacing his power bat with 30 HR's from Bruce and Votto?

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