Hey Sean,
Just wanted to address your point of projection systems "downplaying Drew back to those 2007 numbers, not the 2008 numbers that I think he should improve on."

Projection systems use more than one year's worth of data, so 2007 data (and 2006 data, for that matter) will be taken into consideration. Drew did perform at that level, and as such it must be taken into consideration. 2008 will be weighted more heavily, but 2007 will still be included and there will also be regression to the mean at play, further pushing his projecting down. Very rarely will you find a projection system projecting a big breakout for a player. Any breakout you do see projected will usually be a smaller one that is a simple result of moving along an age curve (or it will look like a breakout as a result of increased playing time). This is true of any systematic projection system, aside from maybe PECOTA, which uses comparable players to drive their projections. Just the nature of the beast, but that's why you're seeing that with Marcels and Bill James.

I would have to say taking Drew that early was probably a mistake. I have a hard time imagining that he was the best player available and probably should have taken someone else considering he was the first 2nd tier guy get drafted.

I don't think Drew is really a .290+ hitter, his batting eye just doesn't support it, his second half was driven almost completely by BABIP. I don't have a problem with you sticking him with any of those other guys but I think you have it backwards. You don't want 'the best' of the second tier, you want the one who falls the farthest and thus is the best value.

I would never have picked Drew where you did in the 6th, i'd have waited for the 7th/8th round and taken whichever 2nd tier guy you liked the most that was left.

Thanks for the kind words guys.

Ozzie - I am a big Alexei Ramirez fan ( have him on some of my keeper leagues for next to nothing). I was planning on trying to cover him later since I think he is going way to early this year. i did a mock tonight and he went in the 4th round.

Brian - there was a SS run that began in the 5th and i think everyone in that group was gone by the 7th. In every mock i have done so far this year they are all starting to go in the 6th in a run.

Sean, great article man. I was a Drew doubter for a long time. However, I was talked into giving him one last shot last year by a friend. I'm extremely glad I did. I always knew that he could be a great player but was skeptical about him ever hitting for power.

Having said that, I think that he has just about reached his power potential. I think that J.J. Hardy is a better pick and has the greater power potential. If Drew could ever add the SB to his game he would be a top 5 SS.

Was wondering what your thoughts are on Alexi Ramirez?

...you definately do your homework...

I like Drew but I think the 6th round is a little early. Where did those other SS that you defined as his peer group end up being drafted?

I am very optimistic as well of Drew. His power is for real, hit HRs in the minors, had 44 doubles and 11 triples last year. With a .315 average in minors, his upside his very good heading into his prime.

enjoyed this article .
am afraid that if i buy into making a case for stephen drew , and he reverts back to 2007 "form" , that your next article would be "making a pine box for big o" .

Projections are a funny thing with young players. You always want to play it safe with them. in the case with drew one would think you would put his numbers somewhere in the middle of 2007 and 08, not all the way back to 07!put in the middle and hope for a big improvement! Drew belongs in that group of players, so does Peralta. The 6th round I guess is about right for him. I just not crazy about any SS after the big 3. How many games will furcal play? I put the over/under at 110....my money is on the under!!