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06 Mar 2009 |
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I had so much fun incorporating board games into my last article that I figured I would try it again. This time we are playing another classic from Milton Bradley called “Guess Who?”. I am going to help you out a bit with your first question; you are going to ask “is your person a shortstop?” That is going to narrow the options down to four possible candidates. It is now your job to figure out which shortstop I have identified as the best value on draft day. Here they are based on their 2008 statistics:
Who’s My Man? Interesting set of choices we have here. Now which one of these four men would you want to have as the starting shortstop on your fantasy squad? I would say it is a pretty tough choice between #1 and #2, while #3 is a close third and #4 is not even in the picture. The stolen bases are nice but the other numbers are not up to snuff. I am feeling pretty generous today so why don’t I give you another hint and tell you their ages as of Opening Day 2009. Shortstop 1: 26 Shortstop 2: 26 Shortstop 3: 32 Shortstop 4: 30 What’s their ADP? That just bumped up shortstops #1 and #2, as they are just entering the primes of their careers. #3 should be knocked down a notch as he is probably on the downswing, while at age 30, #4 does not change either way. Now here comes the plot twist you have all been waiting for. Shortstop 1 ADP: 94.2 Shortstop 2 ADP: 107.4 Shortstop 3 ADP: 79.75 Shortstop 4 ADP: 9.8 Who Are These Masked Men? By now you have probably figured out who all four of these players are. They are of course Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, Michael Young and Jimmy Rollins. I hope your next question is “does your player play for the Cleveland Indians?” If not, consider this a formal invitation to come join my league (Ed. note – Ryan does not actually have a league he is inviting you to. Sorry to disappoint). I would love an explanation as to why managers out there feel that Rollins should be selected almost 100 picks ahead of Peralta. Sure Rollins had a bad year last year, but other than his MVP campaign of 2007, he has never really been considered a bona fide first-round pick. Meanwhile, Peralta has improved consistently over the past three years to establish himself as a top shortstop in the American League. With the possibility of comeback seasons by teammates Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, his numbers have nowhere to go but up. The purpose of this article is not to bash Jimmy Rollins; any player with an MVP award and a World Series ring is OK in my book. However, I do wish to point out a serious flaw in this year’s draft. With a slew of other elite players available late in the first round like Ian Kinsler, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira, there is no reason to draft Rollins. Especially when you can get a superior player like Peralta with your 10th-round pick. You Win! Now at the end of the year when you are accepting your league’s championship trophy and handing it off to team MVP Jhonny Peralta, you can tell all your friends (or Internet acquaintances) that you owe it all to a silly article based on a game of “Guess Who?”. Don’t agree? Let’s hear your opinion on these four players in the comments and where you think they should be selected in the draft.
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Comments (11)
  written by RyanCampbell, March 09, 2009
I am going to have to agree with Kevin here.
I don't think anyone is saying that Peralta is better than Rollins. Peralta is just better value considering where he goes in the draft. SS is deep enough that you dont get screwed if you dont get one of the top guys. I like Kevin's comment about SB too, if you are relying on only one guy for a category, it can be a pretty risky strategy. Not one I usually give a lot of thought too when I am drafting but I think I will take it a bit more seriously now.
written by kevinorris, March 07, 2009
It's hard to compare two players that are complete opposites, as far as categorical stats go. Part of it probably has to do with the fact that I get the chance to see Braun play 10-15 games a year in Milwaukee compared to seeing Reyes maybe once in person (if he comes to Milwaukee). There is no fantasy league that I'm in where I'm so competitive that I will take a player I hate (Reyes) over a player I like (Braun) if they have similar values.
Fantasy baseball is never going to make anyone a living, and considering I don't play high stakes leagues, I think I'll stick more towards the entertainment aspect.
written by kevinorris, March 07, 2009
I'm not going to get into dollar values because I really don't care for that stuff since I'm only in one auction league, but what I will say is that Braun hits more home runs and obviously drives in more runs. For me, I always grab my power earlier in the draft from guys that I know will produce big numbers, Braun being one of them.
With Reyes, I think people feel they are already set in steals, or at least close, and therefore they tend to not draft many more steals. I'd rather have a team with multiple guys that can grab 20 stolen bases instead of one who steals 60. If Reyes goes down, then everyone who drafted him (which is almost obviously for his speed) is screwed because they were relying on being heavy in speed. I don't think there is much difference between the two value wise, but like I said, I tend to like many of the short stops that go later in the draft regardless.
written by MikePodhorzer, March 07, 2009
Braun valued higher than Reyes? What do you project for each of them and what dollar value do you expect them to earn?
written by kevinorris, March 07, 2009
Mike- I have respect for you being a fellow Braves fan, but I can't agree with your evaluation here. I don't think Peralta is a better player than Rollins, but I think short stop is much deeper than people play it out to be. I almost always end up drafting Peralta, Aviles, Bartlett, or Escobar anytime after round 10. That way I can focus more towards solid power in the beginning of the draft and acquire stolen bases in handfuls of 20 or so. That's one of the reasons that I really like Ryan Braun, and would value him more than Jose Reyes.
written by MikePodhorzer, March 07, 2009
That pro-rated Rollins stat line would value him as the 14th overall hitter and 23rd most valuable player according to the values produced by the Last Player Picked Price Guide. He's also worth $16 more than Peralta according to the Guide using a composite of a couple of the freely available projections. I'm not sure how you're valuing the stat line but I can't see him overvalued by any more than like 10 picks at most.
written by RyanCampbell, March 07, 2009
I don't think the fact that Rollins missed some time explains the whole story. If you pro-rate his 2007 and 2008 seasons to 673 AB's, which is around his average over the last few years, there are some startling differences.
2007: 130 runs, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 38 SB, .296 BS 2008: 91 runs, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 56 SB, .277 BA Not pretty. And 2007 was the outlier, not 2008. Additionally, Peralta has a career batting average only 9 points lower than Rollins, and he is just entering his prime. Last year he was only one batting average point lower... so if you are going to discount BA as one of Peralta's tools, then you are going to have to for Rollins too. If someone offered me Rollins straight up for Peralta I would take it, but he is not worth an extra 100 picks in the draft.
written by RobReed, March 06, 2009
In Expert Mock Draft #3 at mockdraftcentral, it was my goal to win the slim SS position by a landslide. I drafted Jose Reyes (SS) and Jhonny Peralta (2B/SS).
How you like me now?
written by MikePodhorzer, March 06, 2009
I am going to disagree. I think you're seriously undervaluing the impact of 47 steals. You also didn't mention that Rollins was injured and missed time so his at-bat total was down and caused his counting stats to look artifically lower. If Rollins simply goes 15-40 and plays a full season, he's worth a back end 1st round pick.
I semi-agree with the overall conclusion though, on a relative basis. I think the other 2 shortstops are overvalued. Michael Young is extremely overvalued while Drew is a little bit. Compared to those two, Peralta looks like a good value, however he is just fairly valued to me. He doesn't contribute in steals or batting average, so he's a 3 category guy at best and I can't imagine him scoring over 100 runs again with such a mediocre OBP.
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Tags: Ryan Campbell Behind The Plate shortstops value Jimmy Rollins Jhonny Peralta Michael Young Stephen Drew
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