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20 Jan 2009 |
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Last night was the big mock draft at Mock Draft Central. It was open to the public and the experts fielded questions from the massive throngs of fantasy enthusiasts watching. Well, not quite massive throngs. Here are some thoughts as well as my picks.  Before the draft even started one of the viewers posed the following to me: will you be over/under three for Yankees drafted? In the first seven rounds it looked like an over, after the selections of Mark Teixeira in the first round and Johnny Damon in round seven. It was fun to interact with those watching, though some of the participants were a bit tight-lipped. One of the things you can do at Mock Draft Central is look at Projected Standings, which I followed as the draft went along. After my 20th pick I was in second place, only 1.5 out of first. I was sitting pretty with a mere three picks to go. After my next two picks my squad was in dead last! You can imagine my horror as my team dropped like Oprah’s weight during her “purge” phases. Then I realized that the team dropped precipitously in the pitching categories, especially Wins, because Kenshin Kawakami had no projection. Phew! What was worse was that the projections gave me a zero for two of my last three picks: Kawakami and Andrus; after each selection the standings did not change in the slightest and by the end of the draft less than ten points separated fifth and last. Andrus is an interesting pick, and perusing various projections I noticed that BaseballHQ had him at 40 steals(!). You can’t very well pass up 40 steals in round 23 for a guy with a starting job. This is an example of the “learned minority” theory that I have written about before and will do again. It is puzzling why they did not have projections for these two players, or if they did they didn't register. Usually MDC has multiple projections to evaluate mock drafts, but not for this one; only the Sherpa’s projections were used. I would love to see how the other projections evaluated the draft. Since we do not yet have projections on Kawakami, I looked at HQ and they have Kawakami as at 13-8 with a 4.00 ERA and a $16 value. Combined with the projection of Andrus’ 40 SB in 440 AB and $21 value, these look like excellent low risk picks; if they flop they can simply be cut. Getting $40 in value in the last three picks is a coup, which is why it was shocking that these last three picks dropped me from second to last until I recognized that it was a result of the lack of projections. Here for your comment/amusement is the roster and some comments. I will have more in-depth analysis in my Premium column this week. It was a very tough draft, one of the toughest in terms of competition of all of the expert drafts that I have done. Aside from Josh Randall of BaseballHQ.com most of the competitors were true to form and did not pursue any radical strategies.  Worst pick is clearly Chipper Jones in the sixth round. Someone asked why I took Tex in round one; I thought this was uncontroversial but I suppose I could be wrong. Another interesting pick that viewers asked about was Brandon Morrow, especially since he was picked ahead of Dempster. I also will admit to holding my nose when taking Josh Hamilton with the turn pick; if it were not for the fact that it was the turn and it would be a long time before my next pick Hamilton was a necessity given my "power first" strategy. What do you think were the best and worst picks? Final Roster
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Comments (10)
  written by MikePodhorzer, January 22, 2009
Mike, check out the "expert" who took Holliday in the first round. As a result, the pick should be taken with a grain of salt. I personally consider Holliday a 3rd rounder now.
written by MIke in Detroit, January 22, 2009
Still having a hard time wrapping my mind around Matt Holiday being a first-round pick this year.
He's moving from NL to AL A hitters park to a pitchers park From a team that nearly led MLB in SBOs to one that steals at about league average. He has career .357/.280 Home/Away Splits. I can't think of anything that's playing in his favor with this move. There's just too much uncertatinity there for a coward like me to take him in the first.
written by RhettOldham, January 21, 2009
I suspect the Baseball HQ wanted to create a buzz with controversial picks and have people look at their site. Lookng at the conservaion, I believe they have achieved there goal!
written by Mike in Detroit, January 21, 2009
It isn't odd at all that Randall picked Polanco when he did. What I suspect Randall found odd is that someone picked Joe Mauer that early. As you'll see in the Forecaster, Baseball HQ notes that Polanco and Mauer's numbers are essentially the same expect for some additional walks for Mauer. They certainly don't justify the 5+ round differential in which the two are taken.
written by RobReed, January 21, 2009
Clearly, he didn't take the mock draft seriously... Mike Jacobs in the 5th round?
written by RobReed, January 21, 2009
Bottom line on Morrow is he wants to start. After he spouted his desire to start, the Mariners went out and signed Tyler Walker.
That should speak volumes. I won't draft Morrow in any leagues until spring... and only if he is penciled in for the 9th inning only.
written by Primetime21, January 20, 2009
you talk about power first strategy but you passed on Ryan Howard and took Teixeira and Hamilton. Why was that?
written by kevinorris, January 20, 2009
I still don't see how you think Morrow will close. I mean, I know he has had the role in the past, but story after story has come out that management is telling him he will be starting for sure in 2009.
Have you guys seen something that I haven't?
written by patrickdicaprio, January 20, 2009
i drafted morrow as a closer. as far as lopez I needed 2B, MI and SS at the time and pickings were slim indeed. he was easily the highest $$ player left at the time.
written by MikePodhorzer, January 20, 2009
Since you mentioned Josh Randall, please, please explain to me what the heck he was doing. Placido Polanco in the 9th? He probably made more questionable picks than everyone else combined, and he's from HQ!
The lack of projections for Kawakami and Andrus is exactly why those projected standings can't be trusted. Just curious though- who was projected 1st? And who was 2nd to last? Though I think Jose Lopez could earn 13th round value, I think you would have been able to wait many, many more rounds before drafting him. But drafting naked is going to do that to you since you don't have ADPs in front of you. I like Morrow a lot as a closer, but not as a starter.
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Tags: Josh Hamilton Elvis Andrus Chipper Jones mock drafts fantasy draft mixed league Kenshin Kawakami Brandon Morrow
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