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Kevin Jebens' First-Half All-Surprise Team PDF Print E-mail
Debate
Written by Kevin Jebens   
Tuesday, 16 June 2009 12:00
First Half All-Surprise Team
 
Rankings are based on the position, not overall MLB rankings. Outfield rankings are for specific position, not for overall OF.
 
C – Kurt Suzuki: Tied for lead in 2B, tied for 5th in R, has a respectable BA and RBI, and he throws in a few SB to boot. He’s increased his LD%, he’s lowered his K%, and his BABIP is a little below league average and his career average, so he could end up with even better stats in the second half.
 
Honorable mentions to Pablo Sandoval (hyped before season, so no “surprise”) and Jason Varitek (terrible BA offsets power).
 
1B – Todd Helton: 11th in R, 7th in RBI, 7th in BA. Sure, those aren’t at the top of the standings, like Adrian Gonzalez, but you could have picked up Helton at the very end of the draft, or from the FA pool. Regarding bang for the buck, he’s a pleasant surprise.
 
Honorable mentions to Nick Johnson (he’s healthy!) and Paul Konerko (positional rankings not quite as good as Helton).
 
2B – Ben Zobrist: He plays everywhere, and his positional ranking is stronger at SS, but 2B will be his full-time spot with Iwamura out. 10th in R, tied for 7th in RBI, 4th in HR, tied for 6th in SB, 2nd in BA, 5th in BB.
 
Honorable mentions to Aaron Hill (would’ve done this last year if not for concussion) and Orlando Hudson (healthy, but is this contract motivated?).
 
3B – Mark Reynolds: 1st in HR, 4th in R, 2nd in RBI, 3rd in SB. I feel the need to rub this one in. I was high on Reynolds last year, and while he strikes out a ton, you can’t deny the impact of his stats, especially considering he fell to the bottom of most drafts or was undrafted completely. Plus, he balances out that high K total with a strong BB total, tied for 5th at his position. He was also the first NL player to reach double digits in HR and SB this year.
 
Honorable mention to Russell Branyan (just as shocking, but I like Reynolds more).
 
SS – Marco Scutaro: 1st in R, 6th in RBI, 5th in BA, 1st in BB. Not only does he lead his position in R, he’s 3rd in all of the MLB. As of last Thursday he led all leadoff hitters in doubles and walks, two very valuable stats for a team.
 
Honorable mentions to Jason Bartlett (DL stint makes me worry about second half) and Derek Jeter (new park boosting HR beyond projections).
 
CF – Adam Jones: Tied for 3rd in HR, tied for 1st in R, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in BA. Everyone expected him to be good someday, but most people weren’t counting on this year.
 
RF – Justin Upton: 4th in HR, 2nd in R, 7th in RBI, tied for 7th in SB, 4th in BA, 10th in BB. Another instance of expectations for the future, but not this year. No one predicted his high BA, or really his overall growth for 2009. The concern lies in his inflated BABIP, which isn’t sustainable at .380.
 
Honorable mention to Shin-Soo Choo (6th in R, 5th in RBI, tied for 7th in SB, 6th in BA).
 
LF – Adam Lind: 8th in HR, 7th in R, tied for 3rd in RBI, 7th in BA. Only Bill James’s projection had much faith in him before the season, and it looks like he’ll reach it, if not surpass it.
 
SP – Edwin Jackson: tied for 10th in QS, 3rd in ERA, 3rd in WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but no one projected this for him. He’s also 8th in IP, with two complete games, so those ERA and WHIP rankings are even more beneficial. The problem is his BABIP is extremely low at .252, so some regression is bound to happen. Still, that doesn’t take away from the surprise stats.
 
Honorable mentions to Kevin Millwood (though he’s starting to come back down) and Justin Verlander (nice to see he’s back on track).
 
RP – Scott Downs: His rankings don’t fully do him justice because he didn’t start as a closer. Still, he’s pitching well enough to keep BJ Ryan from the closer role. With a strikeout an inning and 1 BS save in 12 SV opportunities, he’s a big surprise. With Toronto playing well, I’m banking on 25+ SV 
 
Honorable mention to Heath Bell (we knew he was a good RP, but he had no closer experience).

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Comments (2)Add Comment
Yeah, sorry
written by Kevin Jebens, June 19, 2009
I know the deep analysis is missing, but I think it's because we got our topics so late in the week, on Friday. I had a busy weekend, so this was the best I could do!
...
written by Patrick DiCaprio, June 18, 2009
like a few others there is very little analysis here, only commentary. and a few technical errors, but in a weak week this is not bad.

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