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02 May 2009 |
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It is easy for everything to get distorted in the first month of the season (the Toronto Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball?!), but things become exponentially distorted when you’re talking about the Yankees. Last week, their starters sucked. But now they may be saved because of their young knight-in-shining-armor, Phil Hughes.  OK, so none of that is actually true, or at least it’s not likely to be true come June. Nonetheless, Hughes was dominant in his 2009 Major League debut, and he’s at least got a chance to prove himself until Wang’s return. Is he in fact a desirable free agent acquisition for your fantasy team?First, a little historical context. Hughes was nothing short of dominant in his first season with the Yankees, when he stayed at A+ only briefly before posting a 10-3 record at AA. With a K/9 rate of 10.71 and a K/BB ratio of 4.31, you could practically sense the salivation of Yankees’ fans everywhere. Things moved quickly for Hughes in 2007, when he was promoted to the bigs after brief stints at A+, AA and AAA. His numbers dropped off a bit in the majors, but he was only 20 years old. With lofty expectations going into 2008, Hughes put up by far the worst totals of his young career while he was with the big league team. He didn’t win a single game in eight starts, and he had a 6.62 ERA to show for it. He gave up more earned runs (25) than he had strikeouts (23). Oddly enough, his FIP from ’08 of 4.34 was practically identical to that of his big league experience the previous year – 4.35. Regardless, many in New York were worried that this promising youngster could never mount a career of any value. Domination So why even consider being tempted by his impressive 2009 debut? Quite simply, he has done nothing but dominate since last season. Hughes pitched in the Arizona Fall League last year and, were it not for Tommy Hanson, he would’ve been the league’s best pitcher. Hughes had some control issues (a 3.9 BB/9 rate), but he still went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 11.4 – the best mark he has posted since before his first big league experience. This return to form continued into 2009 as he started out the year in AAA. In just three starts he went 3-0 while giving up just four earned runs and posting a WHIP of 1.03. More importantly, he appeared to gain better control, as he racked up 19 strikeouts to a mere three walks in 19.1 innings pitched. Keep in mind that he’s still only 22, and before this year he had only started 11 games at AAA. So a “comeback” should never have been a complete surprise for the kid. The stage was set for Hughes’ 2009 debut: he’d had a fine off-season, and the Yankees were in need of a fifth starter after having to DL Wang. More so than in any other major league start he has had in his career, Hughes delivered. He went six strong innings against a potent Tigers offense without allowing a single earned run. He struck out a career-high six while only allowing two walks. Plus, he has already surpassed his win total for all of 2008. Clearly, Hughes’ recent success leading up to this stellar debut would lead one to believe that it is more than just a fluke, but it is his command and use of pitches that appear to be particularly promising for future output. His Repertoire Hughes has predominantly relied on two pitches: a low-90’s fastball and a curveball. Everything about his fastball from his first start (from his use of it to its velocity and movement) is on par with his career averages. His curve, on the other hand, experienced some increased movement that appears to have helped him. In his ’09 debut his curve broke a little more away from righties than it has in the past, jumping from 6.4 away from center last year to 8.1 in his first start. He will want to drop the velocity on this pitch back to his career norm, which is usually about 20 MPH slower than his fastball, but if he can execute this with that increased motion, it won’t surprise me to see continued success for Hughes this year. One additional noteworthy aspect of his pitch selection from this first start is his increased use of a slider, which also acts like a cutter. According to Fangraph’s Pitch F/X data, Hughes used his slider 12.1% of the time, which is a stark contrast to his career average of 5.7%. This leads me to believe that Hughes has spent some time working on developing this third pitch, which would be a major benefit to him. His slider’s velocity clocks in somewhere between his other two pitches, so it’s another dimension of speed to fool hitters. With these three pitches, Hughes has the potential to consistently throw off hitters with both velocity and movement. In answer to the titular question, yes, I do think that Hughes is worth a roster spot, assuming you’re in the market for a starting pitcher. I’m not ready to jump whole-heartedly on his bandwagon just yet, but his recent efforts do seem to suggest positive outlook. He’s also a safe bet to maintain his spot in the Yankees’ rotation, as it seems like the Yankees would be perfectly content on returning Joba Chamberlain to his setup role upon Wang’s recovery. Hughes is a strong strikeout candidate, and his improved control also makes him a healthy contributor for WHIP. Overall, he is a fantasy league free agent whose stock is very much on the rise right now, so now is the perfect time to claim him.
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