A few weeks ago I began making promises to do some research to help all of our readers out in the drafting department.  Since ESPN.com launched their mock draft service a couple of weeks ago, they have released regularly updated Average Draft Position (ADP) reports that vary tremendously to those over at MockDraftCentral.com (MDC)- the most common mock drafting site on the internet.

Mock drafts are tough to use practically because the rankings on different drafting websites vary so much.  Although you may draft off of your own set of rankings, many others draft off the pre-made rankings list.  Therefore, when drafting on MDC, the results may be very different than those of a draft on Yahoo! or ESPN.

Today I spent a few hours comparing the top 140 drafted players on MDC and ESPN.com to see the differences, so that you can get a better gauge of how these drafts vary, and the importance of drafts.

The following are a list of players who are being draft between 10-19 spots higher on MDC than on ESPN: Ian Kinsler, Matt Holliday, Justin Morneau, Carlos Lee, Russell Martin, David Ortiz, Bobby Abreu, Brad Lidge, Rafael Furcal, Dan Uggla, Carlos Pena, Robinson Cano, and Scott Kazmir, Bobby Jenks, Joba Chamberlain, Edinson Volquez, B.J. Ryan, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Cain, and Lastings Milledge.

As you can see, most of these players are hitters, which means that ESPN’s rankings are pitching heavy.  For more evidence, here are players that are being taken between 10-19 spots higher on ESPN compared to MDC: Dustin Pedroia, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb, Jonathan Papelbon, Dan Haren, Magglio Ordonez, Derrek Lee, Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Jay Bruce, Troy Tulowitzki, Raul Ibanez, Yovani Gallardo, Rich Harden, Ryan Doumit, and Jonathan Broxton.

Sure, 10-19 spots isn’t that big of a difference but it can be an entire round or two.  The next rung includes those players that are more than 20 spots different.  Here’s a list of players taken 20-29 spots higher on MDC than on ESPN: B.J. Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Quentin, Corey Hart, Garrett Atkins, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, and Chris Iannetta.  Here are guys that are taken 20-29 spots higher on ESPN compared to MDC: Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, James Shields, Felix Hernandez, Joakim Soria, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jhonny Peralta, and Adam Wainwright.

Those guys are being taken at least a round earlier or later, depending on the site that you may use, but these differences are important on draft day.  Better yet however, there are many players that have even bigger draft differentials.

The following are the five players taken 30-39 spots higher on MDC compared to ESPN: Shane Victorino, Adam Dunn, Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, and David Price.  The following are the three players that are being taken 30-39 places higher on ESPN compared to MDC: Roy Oswalt, Torii Hunter, Carlos Marmol.

It gets better; the following players are being taken 40-49 spots higher on MDC compared to ESPN: Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada.  ESPN’s ADP reports have these players going 40-49 spots higher than on MDC: John Lackey and Zack Greinke.

Those are some big numbers, and will likely change as the season comes, but it is evident that there are some huge differences between the rankings; however, the best is yet to come.

The following players are being taken at least 50 spots higher on MDC compared to ESPN: James Loney (62 spots), Carlos Delgado (117 spots), Matt Wieters (61 spots), Nelson Cruz (120 spots), and Brett Myers (62 spots). Those are tremendous differences and obviously show a solid comparison between the two sites, but now you are trying to figure out what this all means.

The best application of this research is to make note of it on a sheet, so that you know that Nelson Cruz will go almost ten rounds later on ESPN than on MDC (that’s a HUGE difference).  Personally, it also shows that ESPN drafters are smarter in holding off on Wieters who will likely begin the season in the minor leagues and will like step up to the plate 300 times this year at a maximum in the majors.

Sure he has potential to do great things, but is he really going to make that big of an impact on your team to be drafted before round 15?

So when headed to draft day, make sure you take a quick look at the ADP reports of your favorite mock drafting website and compare it to the site that you will be drafting on to get a better idea of where players will go.  There’s a chance that you may be able to find a gem (like Nelson Cruz on ESPN)!
 

Any other players that you've noticed big ADP differences in?  Do you disagree with my analysis on Wieters?  I encourage you to leave a comment below and I'll get back to you!

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written by kevinorris, February 26, 2009

That is a good point, one that I didn't think of when I initially looked at this ADP report.

Most importantly, it's not only the fact that pitchers are rated so high, it's just that certain guys are ranked much lower than they may be on your favorite mock drafting site.

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written by Mays, February 25, 2009

I think a big difference is that ESPN standard leagues draft three fewer hitters (C, CI, MI) than what the leagues listed at MDC. That might make pitchers a bit more valuable in ESPN's format.

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written by kevinorris, February 25, 2009

I definitely agree with the pre-ranking Rhett. The auto-pick is very common in mock drafts because typically creators of drafts make such a little time limit typically 30-45 second.

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written by RhettOldham, February 25, 2009

Kevin, nice article. I am not really paying much attention to ADP unless I plan drafting on that site. The big thing is to pre rank the players the way YOU see them so you don't get caught up in drafting the player that just happens to be at the top of the queue when the clock is ticking and the pressure is on.

Good stuff!

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written by kevinorris, February 25, 2009

To my knowledge their rankings are universal, but I'm not 100% sure on that, so that would make a little difference. All of the leagues I've ever done on ESPN are standard roto 5x5. I would compare to Sportsline, but most of their leagues are points leagues and that has a huge difference.

Either way, the point is that make sure that you are familiar with the rankings because they will give you a rough idea of where players will go.

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written by ichirosan, February 25, 2009

I guess it has a lot to do with the fact that most of ESPN leagues are H2H instead of Roto, and people tend to draft starting pitchers slightly higher on that format...

Of course, you can also blame ESPN default rankings and the dreaded autopick :X

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