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How to Be a Smart Fantasy Owner Part 2 PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Baseball Beginners
Written by Kevin Orris   
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 23:31
No longer do I have to write intros about how close Opening Day is, but I do have to remind you how recent Opening Day was.  It’s common for fantasy owners to get excited over the emergence of regular season baseball and the unexpected hot and cold starts by various players around the league.

A couple of weeks ago we talked about waiting about 40 days to evaluate your teams, and it’s important to reiterate my point, this time when dealing with the waiver wire.  Often beginning fantasy owners will notice guys like Emilio Bonifacio and pick them up right away, which isn’t necessarily a bad move.

It is a bad move, however, when you drop an established guy, like Bobby Abreu.  A couple of years ago, I was in a league at Sportsline.com and just a week and a half into the season someone dropped Bobby Abreu for a low-caliber player, whom I cannot recall.  What I do recall is that the owner that was on top in the waiver wire process was able to win the league because they picked up Abreu, while still in his prime, because it bolstered his previously shallow outfield.

Moves like the previously mentioned are pretty obvious, and if for some reason, someone were to drop say, Cliff Lee after one bad start, pick him up ASAP. It’s important to stick with your players, and allow them to adjust to the regular season and get into the swing of things. Don't make any huge trades and show patience when negotiating. April is not the time to make and rash moves. Wait until you get further information or see how things are going.

I’m embarrassed to say it, but I won’t hesitate to make myself look like a fool by pointing out an article I wrote a month into the 2008 season about CC Sabathia.  I had Sabathia on one of my decent money teams and I was disgruntled at the fact that Sabathia was lasting only a few innings and would get shelled every time he stepped on the mound. In fact, I suggested that the term “Sabathia” might replace the term “bust” in the fantasy baseball world.  As we all know, Sabathia ended up moving to the Milwaukee Brewers and was able to turn things around and compete for a Cy Young. 

On the other hand, don’t hesitate to drop a player that may have been demoted the minors or lost a positional battle in the spring for a hot player on the rise, but first give your players a chance.

When writing this article, one thing kept coming to mind, and that is the success of Bobby Cox.  One of the things that Cox is glorified for is sticking with his players no matter what they are going through.  Although fantasy baseball doesn’t involve team chemistry or anything close to that, there is definitely a parallel to stick with your guys, especially when they’ve proven themselves in the past.

There is a reason you drafted each and every player, no matter how silly it may be, so stick with your gut for the few weeks, and then decide to make the moves.  In the long run, you’ll really notice the benefits.
 
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Comments (8)Add Comment
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written by kevinorris, April 09, 2009
I had Lowe last year, and I never questioned him. I feel really bad for whoever dropped him.
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written by ChristopherMulligan, April 09, 2009
Last year someone dropped Derek Lowe early when his ERA was in the 5.00's and I picked him up. He helped lead me to the best pitching staff in the league. Three years ago I picked up Aaron Harang after someone dropped him after the first week and he helped lead me to a championship. Stick with your proven veterans during their slumps!
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written by Chase Williams, April 08, 2009
I also have no problem with either of the moves you made... with that said I would have probably went with Lannan over Outman just due to fact that he has more experience and is more likely to have an ERA under 4 this year than Outmann (just my opinion). Lannan's ground ball rate improved in 08 from 07, and his fly ball rate declined - both good signs. If he can improve his walk rate he can be a servicable spot starter in deep leagues and ONLY leagues.
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written by MikePodhorzer, April 08, 2009
I have no problem with either move. Rasmus is probably worthless this year in a real shallow 10 team league, as he'll hurt your average and has to contend with Duncan for playing time. I'm no fan of Bonifacio, but he should still be worth less negative value than Rasmus!

Lannan sucks and is actually a proud member of my Razzball (bad players = good in this league) team. Funny thing, I actually added Josh Outman in that league as well 2 days ago, since I'm no fan of his either, but at least he has the potential to be good!
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written by Kevin Orris, April 08, 2009
The second move you made is fine, and understandable, but dropping Rasmus is questionable. He's got the ability to be one of the best players of this era, so I never endorse dropping a guy like that, but I'm not so sure anyone will be quick to pick up Rasmus.

Bonifacio is probably only going to hit .260, and his average could be even lower, and he's only going to contribute steals and runs, so if thats what you need then he's your guy.
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written by Ackshawn, April 08, 2009
Nice companion piece here. I can admit that even though I am a seasoned vet at this game, I still get jumpy when the season starts (or even before) as I watch positional battles conclude and depth charts take shape.

Here are 2 dubious moves I already made, based on playing time and Roto-talent:

-In a shallow 10 team Mixed League, I dropped Rasmus and addeed Bonifacio

-In a deeper 17 team Mixed League, I dropped Lannan and added Outman

Chew me up and spit me out if y'all think I'm crazy.
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written by kevinorris, April 08, 2009
The problem is that it's not even just beginners that make these mistakes, all kinds of owners make them on a regular basis. Sure there are the very few times that something pays off, but most of the guys who have a breakout season aren't pick up until a month in when their numbers add up from multiple games.

See: Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick was available in my league at least two months into the season last year, but it comes to a point where the good numbers just start to add up and you realize what he's doing.
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written by SeanAgranov, April 08, 2009
could not agree more.

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